Daniel Deudney and John Ikenberry write: Keeping America great requires the continuous forging of a political and economic order that is a model to the world because it is a success at home. And being able to do that requires the United States to remain fully engaged in an international role; for without it, the social trust necessary to forging that domestic order may sink below minimal levels. – The American Interest
The Army plans to stockpile equipment in Vietnam, Cambodia, and other Pacific countries yet unnamed that will allow US forces to deploy there more rapidly, because key supplies and gear will already be in place. The new caches will be well inside what China considers its sphere of influence. – Breaking Defense David Ignatius writes: The Obama administration is moving toward what could be a dangerous showdown with China over the South China Sea. The confrontation has been building for the past three years, as China has constructed artificial islands off its southern coast and installed missiles and radar in disputed waters, despite U.S. warnings. It could come to a head this spring, when an arbitration panel in The Hague is expected to rule that China is making “excessive” claims about its maritime sovereignty. – Washington Post
AEI: President Barack Obama’s foreign policy Jeffrey Goldberg profiled President Barack Obama and outlined his thinking on foreign policy in an article for The Atlantic titled, “The Obama Doctrine.” In a Foreign Policy op-ed, “Confessions of Barack Obama, Confidence Man,” Danielle Pletka reacts to Goldberg’s unintentionally devastating assessment of the “Obama Doctrine.” She writes, “The Obama that emerges from the Atlantic interview is preternaturally icy, contemptuous of both his adversaries and his own staff, thin-skinned, angry, and oddly self-satisfied. That character portrait aside, it would have been nice if the article had shed light on the worldview that governs Obama’s decisions. Rather, it illuminated the fact that he doesn’t have a worldview. Instead, the president of the United States has opinions, and lots of them. And people he really doesn’t like, and lots of them. And countries he thinks don’t count, like those that make up the Sunni Middle East.” Read in full here. Victor Davis Hanson: http://tribunecontentagency.com/article/the-buck-never-stops-here/
Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Army Gen. Lloyd Austin III said the Islamic State, which controls portions of Iraq and Syria and sees its influence spreading into North Africa and South Asia, poses the greatest immediate threat to the United States and its allies and partners. – USNI News The general tapped to oversee the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) says he has “concerns” about the current strategy against the terrorist group. – The Hill
The United States might soon be exercising “tough love” with its partners in the Middle East to get focus on where it needs to be in defeating the Islamic State and addressing other regional security needs, Army Gen. Joseph Votel said during his confirmation hearing to become Central Command’s top officer. – USNI News U.S. officials are pushing a select group of allies to expand their sights beyond Iraq and Syria in the global effort to destroy the Islamic State (IS) terror group. – Voice of America Weekly Standard: http://www.weeklystandard.com/iranian-impunity/article/2001506 Senior Policy Analyst Tzvi Kahn writes: To change Tehran’s behavior, the United States must impose meaningful consequences on Iran for its embargo violations and other acts of defiance. It can begin by vetoing any arms sale at the U.N. Security Council. It should also impose comprehensive new sanctions on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — the key beneficiary of illicit arms transfers, the custodian of Iran’s ballistic missile program, and the spearhead of its regional aggression and domestic repression. In the absence of such steps, Iranian belligerence will continue — and render UNSCR 2231 a dead letter. – Foreign Policy Initiative Iran test-launched a series of ballistic missiles Wednesday in an exercise that dramatized Tehran’s determination to bolster its arsenal in the aftermath of last year’s nuclear accord. The Obama administration labeled the missile launches provocative, but said the firings did not violate the terms of last year’s nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, including the United States. – Los Angeles Times Elliott Abrams writes: So, the bases on which the nuclear agreement with Iran was sold appear to be crumbling. Moderates are not gaining power, Iran is not moderating its behavior, and we know less rather than more about what it is actually doing in its nuclear program. Some of those conclusions are denied by the administration and by credulous portions of the press, and others are ignored. But all those verbal games will not make us any safer. – CFR’s Pressure Points Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh write: Iran is at an impasse. It has an economy that it cannot reform, a political order that it cannot liberalize, and a population that it cannot propitiate. There are now no pressure valves, no avenues toward a politics of accountability. On some occasion, something will spark another protest movement. But the Islamic Left won't be there to defend the system. The clerical regime again will have to use brute force. And as the Arab Spring and everything that followed has shown, brute force may not be enough to squash a popular insurrection. – Foreign Affairs
The scale of the multibillion-dollar effort has raised tensions in the region and strengthened China’s disputed claim to the entirety of the South China Sea, home to some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. The buildup has also challenged the military status quo in the Western Pacific since the end of World War II, bringing China closer to its goal of establishing a security buffer extending far from its coast — a dream of Chinese strategists since the Korean War. – New York Times
The four-ship U.S. strike group that patrolled the disputed South China Sea was followed by Chinese warships, a show of force that prompted a hard-line response from China doubling down on its claim to nearly all of the resource-rich sea. – Military Times A recently revealed U.S. assessment of Chinese military capability on holdings in the South China Sea runs counter to a narrative from Beijing that weapons on the artificial islands are merely for self defense, according to the late February assessment outlined in a letter by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and obtained by USNI News. – USNI News The Philippines is to lease from Japan five aircraft to help patrol the disputed South China Sea, President Benigno Aquino announced on Wednesday, as China expands its military presence in the region. - Reuters In rare public comment on territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Taiwan's defense ministry warned on Wednesday that countries in the region were spending more on bolstering their military strength as tension in the area increased. - Reuters Is the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization or a firewall against violent extremism?” (Marc Lynch, Monkey Cage)
“The Muslim Brotherhood, at least in post-coup Egypt, no longer enjoys a strong presence in society with an elaborate network of social services and a tolerated public presence. Its patient strategy of long-term change through participation lies in ruins. Its organization has been shattered, with its leadership either in prison, exiled or dead and the survivors divided between multiple power centers inside Egypt and abroad. It is no longer deeply embedded in society or engaged in a patient strategy of Islamization of the political and cultural realms. It no longer has a robust internal organization, vast financial resources, a clearly defined ideology, or a tightly disciplined membership. It is neither shrouded in secrecy nor is it rigidly hierarchical. This has important implications for long-standing hypotheses and assumptions about the Brotherhood and Islamist politics more broadly. Researchers should therefore admit to greater uncertainty about the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology, organization and strategy than ever before. Arguments that held up well five years ago no longer necessarily apply.” Summary: Arab Studies Institute "A new military intervention making short shrift of Libyan sovereignty -- whether or not it would be in response to a future government of national union -- is very likely to raise more problems than it seeks to resolve. Although a few Libyan voices are calling for foreign intervention, the vast majority of the people are against any foreign operation on their territory, whether conducted by the Western powers or by Arab countries. By banishing the prospect of a defeat of IS by strictly Libyan forces, a foreign intervention would discredit any government of national unity since it would be seen as a puppet of the West. It would also fuel the resentment felt by many Libyans. Although not particularly hostile to the West, they are nonetheless not unresponsive to arguments put forth by the most radical politicians of both Eastern and Western Libya, who spread various conspiracy theories, the most popular claiming that IS itself is a new way the West has found to interfere in the Arab world. A new international military intervention in Libya will therefore not contribute to any lasting solution that responds to the political and social reasons for the presence of IS in that country. This must require first and foremost the rebuilding of a legitimate Libyan state, including as many of the local military and political forces as possible.” Jadaliyya: Arab Studies Institute http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/24013/libya_military-intervention-would -only-strengthen-?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm _term=%2AMideast%20Brief The Daily Beast: "Beating ISIS In Libya"
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/07/from-the-levant-to-libya-this-is-how -you-beat-isis.html Tunisia Attacked: Militants attacked army and police barracks in Ben Guerdan, Tunisia, near the Libyan border, this morning, leaving at least 30 security officials and civilians and 21 militants dead; six militants were arrested and Tunisian authorities locked down two border crossings and a nearby resort town. Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tunisia-security-idUSKCN0WB0KR?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign &utm_term=%2AMideast%20Brief Summary: Wash. Post: "How Tunisia's Military Has Changed" “As the military’s power has increased, Tunisia’s leaders have been keen to promote loyal officers. Privileging loyalists is not a new strategy, but the changing face of Tunisia’s political leadership has spelled a changing demographic composition of the top brass. Prior to the revolution, senior officers most often hailed from Tunis and the Sahel -- the wealthy coastal region, which includes Sousse, Monastir and Mahdia, from which Bourguiba and Ben Ali hailed. These areas amounted to just 24 percent of Tunisia’s population yet claimed nearly 40 percent of the officers promoted to the Supreme Council of the Armies under Ben Ali. However, Tunisia’s post-revolution leaders gained much of their support from the marginalized interior. In the wake of Egypt’s July 2013 coup, these leaders, especially President Moncef Marzouki, ensured the military’s loyalty by reshuffling the top brass to bring in officers from these historically underprivileged regions, signaling the end of the favoritism of Tunis and the Sahel. Perhaps the sharpest break with the Ben Ali era has been the entrance of retired officers into Tunisia’s robust civil society. Retired officers have capitalized on the newfound freedom of association to form a number of civil society organizations, lobbying the government and shaping the public debate over the military and its needs.” Wash. Post: "How Tunisia's Military Has Changed" https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/08/how- tunisias-military-has-changed-during-its-transition-to-democracy/?postshare=4371457464453376&tid=ss_tw&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_ medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AMideast%20Brief Tunisian troops have killed seven more Islamist militants during raids in Ben Guerdan, the town on the Libyan border where at least 55 people died during an attack on Monday by Islamic State fighters, the army said on Wednesday. - Reuters
NYT w/ Infographic: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/world/asia/us-proposes- india-naval-coalition-balance-china-expansion.html?_r=0 Wash. Post: Impact of Beijing's South China Sea Policy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chinas-self-defeating-provocations-in -the-south-china-sea/2016/03/02/8b256cfc-dcdb-11e5-891a-4ed04f4213e8_story.html Summary
“An underlying assumption of many in the security establishment is that a nuclear-armed Iran is presently the only existential threat to Israel and therefore must take priority. Because the Iranian nuclear deal diminishes the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, at least for the near-term, many think it presents Israel with opportunities despite some associated risks. The most recent former IDF head, Lt. Gen. Benjamin Gantz, stated that the deal will allow Israel to ‘build defensive and offensive capabilities that will be used as deterrents,’ while former military intelligence head, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, has written that the deal ‘buys Israel time to develop clandestine as well as overt thwarting capabilities for the long term.’ The security establishment seems confident it will be able to manage the negative repercussions of the deal, which include the strengthening of Hezbollah -- what Lt. Gen. Eisenkot considers the ‘major military challenge currently facing Israel.’ The governing coalition seems to see things differently. The underlying assumption of Netanyahu and other politicians is that Iran’s ability to maintain its nuclear infrastructure and continue its destabilizing regional activities eclipses the importance of delaying a nuclear-capable Iran.” Nat. Interest: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/netanyahu-idf-are-split-the-iran- nuclear-deal-15368?page=show&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign= New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AMideast%20Brief |
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