Fukushima concerns unanswered: The general view has always been that the Fukushima reactor meltdowns in Japan in 2011 were caused by the tsunami that knocked out backup power to the atomic plant. Daniel Hurst writes that Japanese nuclear engineers think that’s not the full story and, six years on, say a key question remains unanswered: What damage did the massive earthquake cause at the atomic plant before it was hit by the subsequent tsunami? Robots in Fukushima: Engineers at Japan’s wrecked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant recently sent a small scorpion-like robot crawling down a pipe into an area with radiation levels that would kill a human in minutes. The journey killed the robot, too, writes Daniel Hurst. The ill fated machine, named Sasori, is one of several robots sent into highly radioactive zones in reactor buildings by engineers trying to deal with the nuclear disaster.
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The number of bodies washing up on Libyan shores is escalating as the refugee crisis worsens. But migrants also are facing perils even before they step into a boat. – Washington Post
East Libyan forces resumed air strikes against rival factions on Sunday as they tried to push them back from positions around the major oil terminals of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, a military spokesman said. - Reuters
America hesistates at the rising Eurasian empires of Russia & China. Michael Vlahos @jhuworldcrisis.
“…Granting the revisionist powers spheres of influence is not a recipe for peace and tranquility but rather an invitation to inevitable conflict. Russia’s historical sphere of influence does not end in Ukraine. It begins in Ukraine. It extends to the Baltic States, to the Balkans, and to the heart of Central Europe. And within Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, other nations do not enjoy autonomy or even sovereignty. There was no independent Poland under the Russian Empire nor under the Soviet Union. For China to gain its desired sphere of influence in East Asia will mean that, when it chooses, it can close the region off to the United States—not only militarily but politically and economically, too. China will, of course, inevitably exercise great sway in its own region, as will Russia. The United States cannot and should not prevent China from being an economic powerhouse. Nor should it wish for the collapse of Russia. The United States should even welcome competition of a certain kind. Great powers compete across multiple planes—economic, ideological, and political, as well as military. Competition in most spheres is necessary and even healthy. Within the liberal order, China can compete economically and successfully with the United States; Russia can thrive in the international economic order upheld by the democratic system, even if it is not itself democratic. But military and strategic competition is different. The security situation undergirds everything else. It remains true today as it has since World War II that only the United States has the capacity and the unique geographical advantages to provide global security and relative stability. There is no stable balance of power in Europe or Asia without the United States. And while we can talk about “soft power” and “smart power,” they have been and always will be of limited value when confronting raw military power. Despite all of the loose talk of American decline, it is in the military realm where U.S. advantages remain clearest. Even in other great powers’ backyards, the United States retains the capacity, along with its powerful allies, to deter challenges to the security order. But without a U.S. willingness to maintain the balance in far-flung regions of the world, the system will buckle under the unrestrained military competition of regional powers. Part of that willingness entails defense spending commensurate with America’s continuing global role….” https://www.brookings.edu/research/backing-into-world-war-iii/?utm_campaign=John%20L.%20Thornton%20China%20Center&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=43529759
Possible Traces of Russian Nuclear Incident, Kola Peninsula, Arctic Circle. Steve Warner. @darkcityfm DeepTalkRadio.com
“…Small amounts of nuclear radiation spread across Europe last month, and no one can figure out why. First detected over the Norway-Russia border in January, the radioactive Iodine-131 bloom was then found over several European countries, and while unsubstantiated rumours of nuclear testing by Russia have been cropping up, officials say it's most likely linked to an unreported pharmaceutical mishap. While the radiation spike happened in January, officials in Finland and France have only just gone public with information on the incident, announcing that after the spike was detected in Norway, it appeared in Finland, Poland, Czechia (Czech Republic), Germany, France and Spain, until the end of January. When asked why Norway didn't inform the public last month, when it was the first to detect the radiation in its northernmost county, Finnmark, Astrid Liland from the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority told the Barents Observer: "The measurements at Svanhovd in January were very, very low. So were the measurements made in neighbouring countries, like Finland. The levels raise no concern for humans or the environment. Therefore, we believe this had no news value." As France's nuclear safety authority, the IRSN, announced last week, the actual amount of radioactive Iodine-131 in Europe's ground-level atmosphere in January "raise no health concerns", and has since returned to normal. But what's most disconcerting about the event isn't the level of radiation that spread through Europe - it's the fact that no one can say what actually happened….” http://www.sciencealert.com/no-one-can-figure-out-what-s-behind-a-mysterious-radiation-spike-across-europe http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/7758/has-there-been-a-nuclear-incident-in-the-arctic Update: https://theaviationist.com/2017/02/22/u-s-wc-135-nuclear-sniffer-airplane-has-left-the-uk-heading-towards-norway-and-the-barents-sea/ _________________ “A US Air Force plane which helped in the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster has been called in to find the source of a mysterious radioactive cloud heading towards the UK. The WC-135 Constant Phoenix, which is specially modified to collect atmospheric samples, flew out of RAF Mildenhall on a mission to find evidence of nuclear activity or explosion, according to strong rumours. Specialist equipment enables the crew to detect radioactive debris ‘clouds’ in real time - after such a cloud was believed to be heading towards northern Europe and the Barents Sea. News of the deployment comes amid claims Russia may be testing nuclear weapons, either to the east or in the Arctic, after a spike in radioactivity was reported. The WC-135 Constant Phoenix, which is known as a nuclear ‘sniffer’ plane, was deployed to Britain last week on an undisclosed mission. Air quality stations in Norway, Finland, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, France and Spain have detected the presence of Iodine-131 at low levels. This has fuelled speculation that the WC-135 has been called in to investigate the cause of the higher-than-normal levels of Iodine-131. The spike has sparked speculation that Russian president Vladimir Putin is testing nuclear weapons in Novaya Zemlya near the Arctic. However, the CTBTO (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation) ruled out a nuclear test had recently taken place….” Update2: http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/environment/mysterious-radioactive-cloud-moves-towards-uk-as-plane-which-tackled-chernobyl-called-in-to-find-source-1-8407845
US Ship-Killer Missiles vs PRC Ship-Killer Missiles in the First Island Chain. James Holmes @navalwarcollege
https://www.wired.com/2017/03/army-converting-missiles-ship-killers-china/
My key points are as follows:
– The U.S. military and intelligence services have waged a prolific counterterrorism campaign to suppress threats to America. It is often argued that because no large-scale plot has been successful in the U.S. since 9/11 that the risk of such an attack is overblown. This argument ignores the fact that numerous plots, in various stages of development, have been thwarted since 2001. Meanwhile, Europe has been hit with larger-scale operations. In addition, the U.S. and its allies frequently target jihadists who are suspected of plotting against the West. America’s counterterrorism strategy is mainly intended to disrupt potentially significant operations that are in the pipeline. -Over the past several years, the U.S. military and intelligence agencies claim to have struck numerous Islamic State (or ISIS) and al Qaeda “external operatives” in countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere. These so-called “external operatives” are involved in anti-Western plotting. Had they not been targeted, it is likely that at least some of their plans would have come to fruition. Importantly, it is likely that many “external operatives” remain in the game, and are still laying the groundwork for attacks in the U.S. and the West. -In addition, the Islamic State and al Qaeda continue to adapt new messages in an attempt to inspire attacks abroad. U.S. law enforcement has been forced to spend significant resources to stop “inspired” plots. As we all know, some of them have not been thwarted. The Islamic State’s caliphate declaration in 2014 heightened the threat of inspired attacks, as would-be jihadists were lured to the false promises of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s cause. -The Islamic State also developed a system for “remote-controlling” attacks in the West and elsewhere. This system relies on digital operatives who connect with aspiring jihadis via social media applications. The Islamic State has had more success with these types of small-scale operations in Europe. But as I explain in my written testimony, the FBI has uncovered a string of plots inside the U.S. involving these same virtual planners. -The refugee crisis is predominately a humanitarian concern. The Islamic State has used migrant and refugee flows to infiltrate terrorists into Europe. Both the Islamic State and al Qaeda could seek to do the same with respect to the U.S., however, they have other means for sneaking jihadists into the country as well. While some terrorists have slipped into the West alongside refugees, the U.S. should remain focused on identifying specific threats. -More than 15 years after 9/11, al Qaeda remains poorly understood. Most of al Qaeda’s resources are devoted to waging insurgencies in several countries. But as al Qaeda’s insurgency footprint has spread, so has the organization’s capacity for plotting against the West. On 9/11, al Qaeda’s anti-Western plotting was primarily confined to Afghanistan, with logistical support networks in Pakistan, Iran, and other countries. Testifying before the Senate in February 2016, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper warned that the al Qaeda threat to the West now emanates from multiple countries. Clapper testified that al Qaeda “nodes in Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkey” are “dedicating resources to planning attacks.” To this list we can add Yemen. And jihadists from Africa have been involved in anti-Western plotting as well. Incredibly, al Qaeda is still plotting against the U.S. from Afghanistan. Both the Islamic State and al Qaeda continue to seek ways to inspire terrorism inside the U.S. and they are using both new and old messages in pursuit of this goal...." http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/02/the-future-of-counterterrorism-addressing-the-evolving-threat-to-domestic-security.php An Islamic State propaganda video circulated this week shows ethnic Uighur fighters training in Iraq and vowing to carry out horrific attacks in their Chinese homeland — the latest sign that the terrorist group hopes to expand operations into East Asia as it loses territory in the Middle East and North Africa. – Washington Times China’s long love affair with a curious phrase appears to be ending. For years, Chinese bureaucrats have dutifully parroted a phrase near and dear to President Xi Jinping’s heart: “A new model of great power relations”....It was never clear exactly what it meant — the Obama administration was loath to use it, meaning its details were never fleshed out — but it appeared to imply some sort of parity, equality, and shared responsibility between the United States and China. Now, after years of regularly appearing on the lips of Beijing apparatchiks, the phrase appears to be fading into history. – Foreign Policy’s Tea Leaf Nation China’s 200 richest lawmakers are worth more than $500bn, according to the Hurun Report, which tracks the fortunes of the country’s wealthiest people. – Financial Times China, which tightly censors the internet, called on Thursday for a new model for governing the web based on rules and order rather than the unfettered access seen in democratic societies. – Associated Press China wants to boost the loyalty of young people from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau by organizing "study trips" and exchanges for them to visit the mainland, a top Chinese official said on Friday. - Reuters The Chinese government is ratcheting up pressure on South Korea over its plans to deploy an American missile defense system, with the state-controlled news media urging the public to boycott South Korean retail products and threatening diplomatic and even military repercussions. – New York Times
Beijing has banned Chinese tour groups from visiting South Korea, as China escalates its retaliation against the planned Korean deployment of the US-built Thaad missile shield. – Financial Times Editorial: Whatever Beijing intends, it is clear that Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile capabilities pose a direct and increasingly intolerable threat to U.S. security, and that the threat will end only when the Kim dynasty is deposed. If Beijing won’t cut its economic lifelines to the North, the Trump Administration should use financial sanctions on Chinese entities to force the issue. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Sadanand Dhume writes: Some diehard optimists, such as the Delhi-based economist Surjit Bhalla, appear to believe that Mr. Modi is always just one state election away from unleashing the wide-ranging reforms that his pro-market fans have long anticipated. But if you pay attention to what the prime minister, along with practically every other politician, is selling the voters of Uttar Pradesh, it’s hard to imagine such an outcome. We don’t know who the state’s 140 million voters will pick to rule them. But we can be certain that they aren’t voting for reforms. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Egypt’s top appeals court cleared former President Hosni Mubarak of any responsibility for the killing of hundreds of people during the 2011 protests that ended his 30-year rule, sweeping away the final legal hurdle to Mr. Mubarak’s release from detention. – New York Times
Former President Hosni Mubarak’s acquittal in the killing of protesters during the 2011 Arab Spring revolts surprised few Egyptians and highlighted how the goals of the revolution remain a distant dream. – Washington Post On Dec. 6, pro-Libyan government militia fighters raised their flag over Sirte, a former bastion of Islamic State terrorists, whom they had crushed with the help of Marine air power. Between Aug. 1 and Dec. 6, the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit launched more than 370 fixed-wing sorties and more than 280 rotary-wing sorties in support of the militia fighters from the Libyan city of Misrata, officials said. – Military Times Russia said on Friday it was ready to help unify Libya and wanted to foster dialogue between rival authorities in Tripoli and factions in the east of the country. - Reuters Emily Estelle writes: It is not too late for U.S. policy in Libya to succeed. ISIS is on its back foot, and many Libyan stakeholders are looking for paths to resolution. We must seize this opportunity to support a sustainable solution to the Libyan conflict so that recent success in Libya will stand the test of time. We otherwise risk watching Libya return to chaos and allowing ISIS and al Qaeda (and possibly Russia) to secure an enduring safe haven on Europe’s doorstep. – AEI’s Critical Threats A North Korean diplomat suggested on Thursday that Kim Jong-nam, the estranged half brother of the country’s leader, died of heart failure despite Malaysia’s finding that he was killed by a banned nerve agent. – New York Times
For years, North Korea has enjoyed the freedom for its citizens to visit, work and live in Malaysia, a rare privilege for a nation considered an outlaw by most of the world. Now that freedom is in danger, with the North Korean Embassy in a suburb of Kuala Lumpur, the Malaysian capital, at the center of a murder investigation that is upending the cozy diplomatic relationship between the two countries. – New York Times Malaysia will deport a North Korean held in connection with the death of Kim Jong Nam, and cancel visa-free entry for all North Koreans, as diplomatic ties between the two countries frayed further following the murder at Kuala Lumpur's airport. - Reuters The Philippines on Thursday dismissed as "thoughtless and irresponsible" a report by Human Rights Watch that President Rodrigo Duterte had turned a blind eye to murders by police in what the group called a "campaign of extrajudicial execution". - Reuters Cambodia's main opposition party chose acting leader Kem Sokha as its new president on Thursday after exiled leader Sam Rainsy resigned unexpectedly in the face of a possible ban ahead of elections. - Reuters Secretary of State Rex Tillerson held private talks with head of the United Nations atomic watchdog agency Thursday in the first direct meeting between the outfit monitoring the Iranian nuclear accord and a senior official from the Trump administration, which has been sharply critical of the 2015 deal. – Washington Times Iran is developing a submarine that could launch an anti-ship cruise missile designed to quickly sink an American warship operating in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new assessment of Iranian naval capabilities published Wednesday by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence. – USNI News Yousef al Otaiba writes: With Washington now alert to the growing threat, we are making plans too. Among them is a renewed security partnership with the U.S., which would provide the basis for a collective and firm response to the Islamic Republic’s provocations. It is an urgent and necessary effort to defend our shared interests and make us all safer and more secure. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Jonathan Ruhe and Blake Fleisher write: The new administration is making clear its intent to stop tolerating Iranian aggression. Translating this into action means the United States can no longer turn a blind eye to Iran’s nuclear cruise missile program. – Breaking Defense Robert Malley writes: Trump considers the measures taken to contain Iran over the past few years to have been feeble, feels that Tehran has acquired disproportionate regional influence, has evinced scant regard for diplomacy or multilateralism and has made his distaste for the nuclear deal abundantly clear, so one might expect a different calculus. What is fanciful is an outcome that wishes away basic political and military constraints. In the business world, this rule went by the expression “Fast, Good or Cheap — Pick two.” There is no all-of-the-above option. Something will have to give. – Washington Post An aide to President Trump disputed reports that national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster told aides not to say "radical Islamic terrorism" during his first meeting with his new staff last week. – Washington Examiner
A former Obama administration official dismissed President Trump's reference to "radical Islamic terrorism" in his speech to Congress last night as a talking point that doesn't matter much in the war against the Islamic State. – Washington Examiner Despite his promises of a no-holds-barred administration, President Donald Trump is tiptoeing around U.S. military engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq, and dialing back the threats of abandoning allies. It seems Trump is opting for an increasingly risk-averse approach to the world. – Associated Press Dov Zakheim writes: [S]hould the president’s innermost circle hold sway over national-security policy, the result will lead only to greater insecurity—not only for America’s nervous partners, but for the United States itself—and the president’s vision for America’s next great anniversary will prove to have been nothing more than the wishful thinking that has powered all too many of his late-night tweets. – The National Interest Mark Lagon and Brian McKeon write: We have low expectations that the president will change course; attacks on our norms and institutions were regular fare for candidate Trump (who, among other things, threatened to prosecute his political opponent). It will likely fall to others — members of Congress, leaders of U.S. business and civil society, and the hundreds of thousands of U.S. citizens who regularly travel overseas — to protect the American brand that President Trump has so carelessly tarnished. America’s identity and influence depend on it. – Foreign Policy’s Elephants in the Room Max Boot writes: To substantially and permanently improve his performance as president, Trump will have to fire the loonies on his staff, accede entirely to his more sober and rational appointees, and submit his most cherished beliefs to factual examination and correction. It will take a lot more, in other words, than smoothly reading a ghostwritten speech off a teleprompter. – Foreign Policy
Why America Should Fear Russia's Bombers
From Dave Majumdar, The National Interest: “The bottom line for the Russian military is that while its current bomber fleet is a fraction of the size of its Soviet-era predecessor, the Soviet Union’s investments in advanced cruise missile technology is finally paying off. Missiles such as the Kh-101 and Kh-102 likely would have entered service in the early 2000s had the Soviet Union remained intact. The new missiles afford Russia’s truncated bomber fleet a long-range precision strike capability that was until recently the sole purview of the Pentagon. Thus while the Russian bomber force of the future might utilize the same airframes as they have in decades past, those aircraft will carry ever more capable weapons as time goes on.”
Reawakening Old Feuds in the South Caucasus. Pietro Shakarian.
"...UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has cautioned warring parties in Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region about taking steps that could derail peace process, his spokesman said on Monday. UNITED NATIONS (Sputnik) — Clashes between Azeri military and forces loyal to the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) have continued despite a Russia-mediated truce. On Monday, Azerbaijan accused the Armenian-majority NKR of violating the ceasefire 85 times...." https://sputniknews.com/world/201702281051099140-us-chief-nagorno-karabakh-clashes/ Draining The Largest Swamp: Unelected Fiefdoms At Monolithic Institutions Called State Dept.3/1/2017
Julia Ioffe reports: In the last week, I’ve spoken with a dozen current and recently departed State Department employees…None of these sources were political appointees. Rather, they were career foreign service officers or career civil servants, most of whom have served both Republican and Democratic administrations—and many of whom do not know each other. They painted a picture of a State Department adrift and listless. – The Atlantic
“…When I hear if we cut foreign aid we can balance the budget, it’s just a complete lie,” said Graham, pointing to the relatively small size of the international affairs budget. “Foreign assistance is an insurance policy. Investing over there, even though we have needs here, makes us safer.”
There are reports that the State Department and foreign assistance budgets could be slashed by 30 percent under the proposal. The State Department declined to comment other than to say Monday that it was working with the White House to review budget priorities and that the department “remains committed to a U.S. foreign policy that advances the security and prosperity of the American people.” The budget plan was given to agencies by the Office of Management and Budget on Monday with only top line numbers in what’s known as a “skinny budget.” After further negotiations between the White House and the agencies, a full budget proposal is expected in late March. Graham said there were many other Republicans and Democrats who will join him in the effort to save State Department and foreign assistance funding. “When the Trump administration has a budget that basically destroys soft power, it’s unnerving to me, because clearly they don’t understand how soft power is essential to winning the war,” he said. “It’s a budget proposal that will probably meet the same fate as Obama’s proposals.” Graham referred to a letter sent to lawmakers Monday signed by 120 retired generals and admirals urging Congress to defend State Department and foreign assistance funding. The letter was organized by the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, a non-governmental organization that works with military leaders who support diplomacy and development. The letter also cites a quote by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who in 2013 as head of U.S. Central Command, said, “If you don’t fully fund the State Department, then I need to buy more ammunition.” Any appropriations bill would need 60 votes to pass, meaning that Democrats could block efforts to slash diplomacy and development funding if they are unified. Sen. Ben Cardin (Md.), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told me he will fight any such efforts….” Draining the State Department. @joshrogin WashingtonPost https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/02/28/graham-trump-slashing-of-state-dept-and-foreign-aid-would-be-dead-on-arrival-in-congress/?utm_term=.d794b0f6d3db |
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