U.S., RUSSIA: F-22 Raptors Intercepted Russian Su-35s Near Alaska
By Joseph Trevithick, War Zone: “Underscoring ongoing tensions between the two countries, American F-22 Raptor stealth fighters have intercepted Russian Su-35S Flanker-E fighter jets as they escorted heavy bombers on mission near American air space. For reportedly the first time ever, Russia has added these advanced fighter jets to long-range bomber patrols near Alaska.”
India’s left-wing violence: India is failing to control violent rural left wing movements that ostensibly are protecting the rights of indigenous people, reports Seema Sengupta. The government is now focusing efforts on security operations against high-value targets but observers are asking if this is really the only answer to address a deep-rooted alienation and disgruntlement prevalent among India’s indigenous people. READ THE STORY HERE
Rex Tillerson has some serious explaining to do. Morale is plunging among the U.S. diplomats and civil servants who work for the secretary of state. Many are aghast at President Donald Trump’s desire to dramatically slash the State Department’s budget and Tillerson’s apparent agreement. Some State staffers are eyeing the exits as malaise grips the department—and before expected organizational restructuring. And just about everyone is seeking clarity from the new administration about its foreign policy objectives. - Politico
Paul Miller writes: Trump is not the first nationalist or the first populist demagogue in American history (although he is the first to win the presidency since Andrew Jackson). His type will recur and his ideas will endure. And the next nationalist champion, perhaps one with more polish, less baggage, and a more likeable demeanor, may find that the Trump presidency prepared the ground for a revolutionary redefinition of the American soul. – The American Interest One of the successors to captured drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán was arrested in a high-rise tower in a wealthy neighborhood here on Tuesday morning, in another blow to a drug-running cartel that has been fighting to maintain its dominance. – Washington Post
Already reeling from massive antigovernment marches in recent weeks, Venezuela is bracing for more demonstrations Wednesday as increasingly vocal activists protest the surprise plan by President Nicolas Maduro to draft a new constitution. Opposition leaders condemned the proposal as an antidemocratic move that will only aggravate the country’s ongoing political crisis. – Los Angeles Times Anders Aslund writes: The collapse of the Maduro regime will not be pretty, but it is difficult to see how it can be avoided. While the politics might be difficult to predict, the main features of a severe economic crisis are quite predictable. The key question is how fast a new government will manage to do the right things. – Foreign Policy Francisco Toro writes: Venezuela’s long-running political crisis is coming to a head. Our embattled pro-democracy movement has proved its staying power, pushing back bravely again and again against authoritarian encroachment by a ruthless and determined regime. Venezuela’s democracy activists now need all the friends that we can get — in Venezuela and beyond. Is the region listening? Is the United States? Are you? – Washington Post
South Korea is on the brink of electing a liberal president with distinctly different ideas than the Trump administration on how to deal with North Korea — potentially complicating efforts to punish Kim Jong Un’s regime. – Washington Post
Edward Fishman writes: There is no magic bullet for Pyongyang’s nuclear belligerence. A military strike against North Korea’s program could lead to devastating retaliation, and even the harshest sanctions may not change Kim Jong-un’s calculus. But as North Korea moves closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon that can hit the United States, we would be remiss not to see if the full weight of our sanctions might make Pyongyang reverse course. – New York Times
Josh Rogin reports: President Trump threw a wrench into his own plans to coordinate diplomatic action on North Korea last week when he started a new dispute with South Korea over funding for a joint missile defense program and threatened to scuttle the U.S.-South Korea free trade agreement. On Tuesday, congressional leaders will attempt to bring the focus back to where they think it belongs — increasing pressure on Pyongyang, not on U.S. allies. – Washington Post
Christian Caryl writes: If any current regime can be described as genocidal, North Korea is it. We don’t know the precise total of those who have fallen victim to their own government’s Orwellian fanaticism, but we know that the number is big. When the regime falls, as it likely will one day, the mass graves will come to light and many people will squeak with horrified indignation: How could such a thing happen in the modern world? Why didn’t anyone tell us this was going on? Yet that shock will ring hollow, considering that we already know what we know. And on that day, history will look back upon Trump’s words and deliver its darkest verdict. – Washington Post UK-Election, May’s Mandate? Theresa May says she is holding an early election because she wants a strong mandate to “negotiate for Britain” over Brexit. Chris Patten, last British governor of Hong Kong, former EU commissioner for external affairs and Chancellor of the University of Oxford, writes that the British Prime Minister already has the support of most of the country but the real problem is to be found within her own political party. READ THE STORY HERE
North Korea's Nuclear Push Masks Army Coming Apart at Seams
By Bryan Harris & Robin Harding, Financial Times: “According to a 2015 US defence department report: “The KPA has not acquired new fighter aircraft in decades, relies on older air defence systems, lacks ballistic missile defence, its Navy does not train for blue-water operations, and recently unveiled artillery systems include tractor-towed rocket launchers.” "
Averting Catastrophe: U.S. Policy Options for North Korea
By Brookings Institution: “Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Foreign Policy Program, convened six Brookings experts—John Allen, Richard Bush, Robert Einhorn, Steven Pifer, Jonathan Pollack, and Evans Revere—with decades of diplomatic and military experience focused on North and South Korea, China, Japan, and nuclear and missile proliferation, to provide analysis and policy recommendations for addressing the ongoing threats posed by North Korea." Analysis: When North Korea deployed hundreds of artillery units, submarines and soldiers to take part in its largest live-fire drill, it was intended as a chilling display of the reclusive regime’s military might…But officials and experts say the apparently formidable force is beset by an array of problems, from fuel shortages to ageing equipment, that would choke its capabilities in the event of prolonged conflict with the US and its allies. – Financial Times
Editorial: Mr. Tillerson is right to point out that existing sanctions can be much more strictly enforced, and new ones applied. His call to downgrade diplomatic relations with the Kim regime, cut off its export of guest workers to other nations and tighten sanctions on individuals and companies involved in the weapons programs ought to be embraced by the same coalition that successfully sanctioned Iran into compromising on its nuclear program. Applying such pressure may not work, but it is the best available option that has not yet been tried. – Washington Post Mark Helprin writes: Avoiding an escalation crisis is in the interest of all involved, China no less than the U.S. Although America’s outrageous neglect of the North Korean nuclear threat has led to this pass, there is still a way out. It requires steady nerves and a clear view of the strategic interplay among all parties. The fundamental dynamics of interests and security are now bringing China into a genuine, if temporary, alignment with the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. The U.S. should be wide awake to this in the days to come, because it may be, in fact, the only way out. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Suki Kim writes: The timing of North Korea’s arrest of Tony Kim is no accident. The negotiations for his release, as well as the other two detainees who are currently serving hard-labor sentences, will depend on the diplomatic maneuver between Kim Jong Un and President Trump, both of whom have recently been threatening preemptive strikes. If this latest arrest is any lesson, then it reminds us of whom we are dealing when we engage with North Korea. Tony Kim will certainly not be the last American detained by Pyongyang. – Washington Post |
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