From Daniel H. McCauley & Sadi S. Sadyev, Small Wars Journal: “As the world’s only superpower, the U.S. has spent the last 25 years underwriting global security and is now feeling the strain of countering Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and other non-state actors’ actions while attempting to meet increasing domestic demands. During that same period, the Russian Federation has emerged not only as a regional challenger to U.S. hegemony in Europe, but also one that seeks to re-establish itself as a viable alternative to the U.S. in the global environment. Buoyed by vast petroleum deposits, energy sources, and easy access to needy markets, the Russian Federation has embarked on a path to challenge U.S. supremacy wherever it can. Although still easily the world’s dominant military power, the U.S. finds it increasingly difficult to translate this military advantage into the preferred political outcomes of the world’s sole superpower.”
Great Powers in Decline
From Daniel H. McCauley & Sadi S. Sadyev, Small Wars Journal: “As the world’s only superpower, the U.S. has spent the last 25 years underwriting global security and is now feeling the strain of countering Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and other non-state actors’ actions while attempting to meet increasing domestic demands. During that same period, the Russian Federation has emerged not only as a regional challenger to U.S. hegemony in Europe, but also one that seeks to re-establish itself as a viable alternative to the U.S. in the global environment. Buoyed by vast petroleum deposits, energy sources, and easy access to needy markets, the Russian Federation has embarked on a path to challenge U.S. supremacy wherever it can. Although still easily the world’s dominant military power, the U.S. finds it increasingly difficult to translate this military advantage into the preferred political outcomes of the world’s sole superpower.”
0 Comments
The Islamic State, though driven from its coastal stronghold in Surt this week, still has several hundred fighters who have dispersed across Libya and pose a threat to the country, its neighbors and, potentially, Europe, according to American officials and the Pentagon’s Africa Command. – New York Times
With Islamic State driven from its last urban stronghold in strife-ridden but energy-rich Libya, fresh turmoil is brewing over control of lucrative oil installations. And a polarizing military figure who once enjoyed close U.S. support — Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar — is at the heart of the unfolding struggle. – Los Angeles Times The past week's developments give a measure of the chaos still enveloping Libya, five years after the NATO-backed uprising that overthrew Gaddafi. - Reuters Editorial: Western governments have an interest in ensuring that Islamic State doesn’t return in force to Libya’s oil-rich coastal areas, which is why airborne vigilance and special-forces assistance must remain on the agenda of the incoming Trump Administration. But it also means the West will have little choice but to help the Libyan state govern itself, lest endless civil war give Islamic State further opportunities to thrive amid the chaos. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky says Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely coast to a second six-year term in an election slated for 2018, but that mounting infighting among insiders could prompt him to seek an exit from the Kremlin. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Editorial: The fallout from the McLaren report is not yet complete; more investigations are underway. But the findings underscore that President Vladimir Putin’s style is to break rules, whether persecuting dissidents at home or making mischief in Ukraine. Mr. Putin had to know that his own security services were fixing the Olympics. Fortunately, this time, Mr. McLaren has exposed the cheat. – Washington Post Larry Diamond writes: The most urgent foreign-policy question now is how America will respond to the mounting threat that Putin’s Russia poses to freedom and its most important anchor, the Western alliance. Nothing will more profoundly shape the kind of world we live in than how the Trump administration responds to that challenge. – Defense One Julia Ioffe writes: Putin may act a friend and pin state medals on your breast, but he is, ultimately, a cynic. And to play ball with him, you have to be a cynic, too. Forget your honor, your rule of law, your independent judiciary, your human rights, your international law, and focus on the gold coins he throws to your feet. And forget looking dignified as you gather them up. - Politico
Hawks critical of the Obama administration’s outreach to Iran over the past eight years were in a distinctly upbeat mood as they took over an ornate Senate caucus room Thursday to promote their cause. The incoming Trump administration, many said, understands their case and the threat posed by the regime in Tehran far better than President Obama ever did. – Washington Times
Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Russian President Vladimir Putin has styled himself as a leader in the fight against global terrorism. Yet the majority of air strikes carried out to date by Russian forces in Syria have been directed not against IS, but against all manner of armed opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, including those supported by the West. This intervention has further increased the already massive flow of Sunni refugees and provided still greater grounds for radicalization and instability in the region. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to see the Kremlin as a reliable partner—let alone a leader—in the war on terrorism. Instead, it appears to be a driver of instability and radicalization within its own country, and far beyond. – Journal of International Security Affairs The second crash of a Russian warplane off the coast of Syria in less than a month intensified scrutiny Monday of a critical weakness in Moscow’s show of naval force in the Mediterranean and the 1,000-foot hulk leading it. – Washington Post Pentagon officials at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, this weekend all seemed to have one nation on their mind: Russia. – Washington Times Georgia/Russian Periphery
A massive reform effort launched in the wake of Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia has transformed a crumbling, demoralized military into agile forces capable of swift action in Ukraine and Syria. Long gone are the days when Russia was forced through financial hardship to scrap dozens of warships and ground most of its air force. Whereas many young men long dodged their obligatory military service, recruits today speak of extending assignments in a better equipped, trained and paid army. – Associated Press
Both on substance and style, the Donald Trump presidency represents a very serious challenge to U.S.-China relations. Quite how much U.S. policy towards Taiwan will change after Friday’s protocol-shattering phone call with Tsai Ing-wen remains open to question, but when it comes to relations with China, experts say Trump represents a fundamental shift. – Washington Post
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Friday telephone call with Taiwan’s president is plunging U.S.-China relations into uncertainty, potentially jeopardizing crucial cooperation on a range of issues, perhaps most ominously North Korea. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) China’s leaders have been markedly reticent about what kind of leader they think Donald J. Trump will be. A pragmatic dealmaker, as his business background might indicate? Or a provocateur who tests the ways of statecraft? By talking on Friday with Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, Mr. Trump answered that question in stark terms, Chinese analysts said Saturday. Breaking decades of American diplomatic practice, he caught the Chinese government off guard by lunging into the most sensitive of its so-called core interests, the “One China” policy agreed to by President Richard M. Nixon more than four decades ago. – New York Times Peter Huessy writes: Even though it is late in the game and many of our options available in the past are now foreclosed, it is critical that we have a strategy that can be implemented by an alliance, and not one based on a U.S. go-it-alone plan. The American people will support a smart plan, but it must be centered on contributions from our allies in the region backed up by U.S. leadership. Carelessly discarding needed allies as a result of JASTA staying on the books should not be part of a smart U.S. plan. – Real Clear Defense
President-elect Donald Trump is widening the circle of candidates for secretary of state and will interview more prospects this week, transition officials said, a sign that after multiple meetings with high-profile hopefuls he still isn’t sold on whom he wants as the nation’s top diplomat. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Retired Army Gen. David Petraeus made his case Sunday for a position in the Trump Cabinet, playing up his diplomatic experience while admitting he made a “serious mistake” in mishandling classified information. – Washington Times President-elect Donald Trump is widening his search for a secretary of State after high-profile meetings with four top candidates failed to yield a decision last week. – USA Today Mitt Romney's chances for being secretary of State in a Trump administration are fading amid a deep division among President-elect Trump's team, and that is giving rise to dark horse candidate Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a foreign policy tough guy who once arm wrestled Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to insiders. – Washington Examiner President-elect Donald Trump is expected to meet this week with several new contenders for the secretary of state position, including ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson and retired Navy Adm. James G. Stavridis, according to a source close to the transition. - Politico President-elect Donald Trump is no closer to choosing his secretary of state, but he is making the most of auditions — as suitors sell themselves on television and in private Trump Tower sessions — that have become the kind of public spectacle that Trump relishes. - Politico |
Archives
April 2024
Categories |