Counterterrorism has prevented another 9/11 attack on the US homeland, but it has not stopped al Qaeda and the Islamic State from growing much stronger than they were in 2001. The US has targeted al Qaeda’s and the Islamic State’s terrorist networks and US and partner military operations have denied them control over large territories and populations. Yet al Qaeda and the Islamic State, as part of the Salafi-jihadi movement, have more territory, more fighters, and more capabilities than ever before.
Winning the forever war means adopting a strategy that will weaken the Salafi-jihadi movement and not just reduce the terrorism threat. Zimmerman argues the US must reframe its approach to counter the Salafi-jihadi movement. With partners, the US must seek to sever their ties with local communities by offering communities a viable alternative to the Salafi-jihadi movement, which will weaken and ultimately isolate movement.
The report is Zimmerman’s latest on the Salafi-jihadi movement. Her related reports include Road to the Caliphate, Terrorism, Tactics, and Transformation, and America’s Real Enemy.
As ISIS’s territorial “state” was simultaneously rolled back and then defeated, an international consensus increasingly emerged that claimed Syria’s war was “winding down.” There is no doubt that the geographic scope and intensity of conflict is not what it was at the height of hostilities in 2014 and 2015, but it is certainly not finished either.
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In light of recent attacks on Western military bases in Somalia, it's worth revisiting a 2016 RAND report on al Shabaab. Our findings indicated that the United States did make some strides in weakening the group, but progress could slip without continued pressure and reform. The authors warned that the group could bounce back if U.S. and other Western governments did not address Somalia's political, economic, and governance challenges at the heart of the conflict. Read more »
- At a Glance: Global counterterrorism efforts have passed their high-water mark and are receding. US Africa Command is shifting its prioritization from the counterterrorism mission to great power competition, a move also intended to reduce risk after a 2017 attack killed four servicemen in Niger. However, the Salafi-jihadi movement continues to make gains in Africa, including in areas in which previous counterterrorism efforts had significantly reduced Salafi-jihadi groups’ capabilities.
- October 1 Briefing: A cluster of US airstrikes in southern Libya indicate that the Islamic State has increased its recruitment in conditions of growing conflict and grievance caused by the Libyan civil war. In Somalia, the al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab attempted to breach a joint US-Somali base for the first time as part of its broader effort to repel foreign forces and collapse the Somali government.
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Forces loyal to Libyan strongman Khalifa Hifter say they destroyed Turkish drones stored at the Mitiga and Misrata airports, Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) said early today. Hifter’s forces vowed in July to attack Turkish interests in Libyaafter Ankara was seen as helping the UN-backed government resist the LNA's monthslong attack on the capital. Meanwhile, the Government of National Accord in Tripoli said it suspected Hifter ally the United Arab Emirates of carrying out the airstrikes on Tuesday against Mitiga, Tripoli’s only functioning airport.
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