(Deutsche Welle) Ethiopia and Eritrea didn't pen their peace agreement in Addis Ababa or Asmara, but in Saudi Arabia with the Emirates alongside. Are economic and military interests increasingly binding Gulf states and the Horn together?
Arab Gulf states in the Horn of Africa: What role do they play?
(Deutsche Welle) Ethiopia and Eritrea didn't pen their peace agreement in Addis Ababa or Asmara, but in Saudi Arabia with the Emirates alongside. Are economic and military interests increasingly binding Gulf states and the Horn together?
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Why Japan’s First Submarine Visit to Vietnam Matters By Prashanth Parameswaran, The Diplomat “The significance of the visit is unmistakable from the perspective of both countries, their strengthening defense ties, and the wider regional context.”
Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, explains that there are more and more symptoms of Xi having domestic political problems. He lived in the US for a while; is not necessarily anti-American but surely is China-first. The century of humiliation: the period from 1850 to 1950, when the Communists came in; was completely mythical. . . . There’s not one guy in the Chinese army who’d take a bullet for Xi. They may not be able to defeat Taiwan, but they sure can defeat Beijing.
Algeria shakes up military leadership ahead of elections
Algeria’s Defense Ministry confirmed Tuesday that it has sacked its air force chief, eight months ahead of presidential elections. Maj. Gen. Abdelkader Lounes will be replaced by Maj. Gen. Hamid Boumaiza. The announcement comes days after local papers reported Lounes’ dismissal as well as the dismissal of Maj. Gen. Ahsan Tafer, the ground forces commander, as part of a major reshuffle of the country’s military establishment. In June, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika fired national police chief Abdelghani Hamel, an influential politician seen as a possible future contender for the presidency. Read More DOMESTIC COSTS OF PUTIN'S REIGN MOUNTING & GULF MONARCHIES SEEK ENDURING INFLUENCE IN AFRICAN HORN9/15/2018 Gulf plays peacemaker in play for Horn of Africa influence Saudi Arabia welcomes the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea on Sunday for the signing of a peace agreement ending 20 years of intra-African hostilities in the latest sign of deepening ties between the Gulf and the Horn of Africa. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki will attend a signing ceremony in Jeddah hosted by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Riyadh’s close ally, the United Arab Emirates, played a key diplomatic role, reportedly offering a $1 billion to Ethiopia’s central bank and a pledge of $2 billion in investments. The Saudis have offered to provide a year’s supply of oil with payment delayed up to 12 months, an Ethiopian official told Reuters. The UAE enjoys an outsized influence in Eritrea, joining its Gulf neighbors seeking to increase their foothold in the region in recent years. Its influence, however, has waned in neighboring Somalia as Gulf tensions spill over into the increasingly militarized region. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE rely on Eritrea and Djibouti to host bases crucial to the Saudi-led coalition’s campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. But as the two countries continue their blockade of Qatar, Doha has invested in the embattled Somali government. Meanwhile, Turkey, which has sided with Qatar in the Gulf dispute, has joined Doha in building ports and bases in neighboring Sudan Ruble’s Troubles
The story: Over the last few weeks, the Russian ruble has notably devalued (by about 10 percent since August 1), with its exchange rate to the U.S. dollar exceeding 70 rubles last week. [Kommersant] What is going on?
Iraq’s Sadr meets with pro-Iran coalition to discuss parliamentary alliance The head of Iraq’s pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, met with the head of the Sairoon Alliance, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, on Wednesday to discuss a possible alliance as the Iraqi parliament seeks to form a new government. Although no final agreement has been reached, the meeting comes as current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi faces increasing scrutiny for his handling of mass rallies in the southern city of Basra where protesters have demonstrated against the lack of basic services like potable water and electricity. The United States is concerned that an Amiri-Sadr alliance could expand Iranian influence in Iraq more than a coalition between Sadr’s Sairoon Alliance and Abadi. As such, Republican senators are moving to introduce legislation that would impose sanctions on Iranian proxies in Iraq, most of which fall under Amiri’s Fatah Alliance. The bill would also oblige the secretary of state to publish and maintain a list of armed groups receiving assistance from Iran. Read More Sadr threatens to lead opposition in Iraq’s parliament
The leader of Iraq's biggest parliamentary faction, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, threatened Thursday to withdraw from negotiations to form a new government even though his Sairoon Alliance finished first in the May elections. Instead, Sadr said Sairoon could play an opposition role in the next government if political parties fail to select an independent prime minister without foreign intervention. Sadr met with the head of the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, earlier this week, after previously attempting to form an alliance with embattled Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his Al-Nasr Alliance. Read More
Reforming U.S. Security Support in Africa
U.S. security sector assistance in Africa has a mixed record, according to new RAND research. During the Cold War, for example, this support was associated with an increase in civil wars. But when conducted along with UN peacekeeping operations, security assistance was found to decrease the likelihood of civil wars and insurgencies, terrorist attacks, and government repression. There are changes the United States can make to ensure its security efforts in Africa have an overall more positive impact. Read more » Countering Terrorist Financing At the height of its territorial control in 2015, ISIS generated over $6 billion. RAND's Colin Clarke recently testified before Congress to explain how the group amassed its war chest—and how it could finance a renewed campaign of terror. Clarke says it's important to continue tracking how money flows into ISIS-held territory. Read more » WHAT DOES KIM WANT IN SECOND MEETING WITH TRUMP & NORTH KOREAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS SALES TO N.KOREA9/13/2018
U.S., EUROPE:
U.S. Soldiers at Suwalki Gap: The First Line of Defense By John Vandiver, Stars and Stripes: “If Moscow were ever to test the alliance on its own turf — something Russian authorities have repeatedly rejected as Western paranoia — the Suwalki Gap along the Polish and Lithuanian borders could be the place.
The Case for Realistic Generals
By Trent Lythgoe, Modern War Institute: “America needs realistic generals whose confidence in themselves, the mission, and their subordinates stems from a grounded assessment of the facts of the situation.” Extremism and Fragile States By Trent Lythgoe, Modern War Institute: “America needs realistic generals whose confidence in themselves, the mission, and their subordinates stems from a grounded assessment of the facts of the situation.” Don’t Fear the Russian Military By Mark Galeotti, The Atlantic: “The headline figures for Russia’s Vostok (or “East”) military exercises, which began yesterday, are dramatic: 300,000 soldiers, 36,000 tanks and other vehicles, 80 ships, and 1,000 aircraft operating across more than half the country.”
What's Old Is New Again: It's the Free World Vs. Neo-Authoritarians
// Thomas Wright The U.S. must abandon the notion of a liberal world order, and get to work deterring those who would bring down democracy.
The Growing Risk of a New Middle East War
Escalating clashes between Israeli and Iranian forces in Syria have demonstrably increased the risk of a new, large-scale regional conflict that would likely involve the U.S. military. Tehran's continued provocations and violations of Israel's stated red lines are fueling escalation with the potential to rapidly spin out of control. Read more »
Can Erdogan intimidate Assad into backing off Idlib?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed not to "watch from the sidelines" amid news of increased arms supplies flowing from Turkey to Syrian opposition rebels. Turkish-Russian 'strategic ties' fail stress test on Syria's Idlib
The recent Tehran summit placed a spotlight on differences between Ankara and Moscow over Syria, leaving the Turkish president rattled. Adel al-Gabouri writes: The regional and international actors interested in reducing Iranian influence in Iraq must realize that the PMF is not a homogenous Shia militia. In this way, any policy adopted regarding the PMF must deal with its constituent factions on an individual basis, especially those groups loyal to Iran that have religious ties to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. - Washington Institute
The 'War on Terror' Still Grows in Somalia // Christina Goldbaum "Drone strikes may have a purpose, but they are no substitute for a political strategy." Somalia’s five federal member states suspended all ties with the Somali Federal Government in a bid to extract political and economic patronage, weakening the primary U.S. counterterrorism partner in Somalia. Regional states may suspend military cooperation with federal forces and restrict their movements, setting conditions for al Shabaab to recapture territory in central and southern Somalia. [Read Emily Estelle’s prepared testimony for today’s hearing on developments in Ethiopia: “ Ethiopia’s Strategic Importance.”] Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri’s 9/11 speech portrayed al Qaeda as the leader of a unified Salafi-jihadi movement and identified the United States as the primary enemy. Zawahiri’s speech is part of al Qaeda’s ongoing effort to recapture the leadership of the Salafi-jihadi movement as ISIS loses its territorial caliphate. [See “Understanding ISIS and al Qaeda,”
Putin Pivots From Western Pressure, but Finds Scant Solace in the East
By Pavel K. Baev, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Russia’s claim to retaining the mantle of a “great power” is today backed up almost solely by its military force, which Moscow currently seeks to bring to bear in the competitive Asia-Pacific region.” This Is China's Way of Warmaking
By James Holmes, The National Interest: “Beijing's military wants to sow paralysis in an enemy system-of-systems for long enough to accomplish its goals—that way it will not need to bother trying to annihilate its adversary.” US, India seal military communications pact, plan more exercises (Straits Times) India and the United States signed an accord on secure military communications that both sides hailed as a breakthrough on Thursday (Sept 6), possibly opening the way for sales of sensitive US military equipment to India. Diplomatic ties strengthen in the Horn of Africa (ABC News) Ethiopian, Eritrean and Somalia leaders are set to meet in Eritrea's capital Asmara, furthering the diplomatic thaw in the strategic Horn of Africa region. By bringing together the leaders of former arch-foes in a summit Wednesday, Eritrea is building newly friendly relations with neighbors Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia, an 'imperfect hegemon' in the Horn of Africa The Editor’s Choice article looks at Ethiopia’s understanding of itself as a regional hegemon. The article highlights the importance of studying the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia’s place within this unstable region. Sonia Le Gouriellec carefully unpacks how Ethiopian foreign policy makers consider the country to be a hegemon, but that this is rejected by many of the neighbouring countries. Why do they do this, especially when Ethiopia hopes to encourage peace and security in the region? Read the article to find out. Read the Editor's Choice > Testimony: Ethiopia’s strategic importance: US national security interests at risk in the Horn of Africa
Emily Estelle | Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations No One's Supplanting U.S. Military Influence in Latin America // Juan Gabriel Tokatlian Concerns about Chinese, Russian, and Iranian forays are overblown. Testimony: Cooperation and competition with China: The need for new approaches
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Great-power competition requires expanding US efforts beyond traditional friends and allies. The US needs a whole-government approach to identifying and responding to the China challenge.
Mona Alami writes: Iran has a vested interest in the southwest and will continue to expand its influence there. It may do so either covertly or use strategic patience until circumstances are ripe. South Syria, muchlike Lebanon, has become a useful strategic card in Tehran’s regional game. - Middle East Institute Shimon Arad writes: Hamas’s development of asymmetric area-denial capabilities and doctrine since 2014 has countered the traditional military strengths of Israel’s precision-strike and maneuver systems, rendering military access into and movement in Gaza a costly endeavor. This has tempered Israel’s traditional preference for offensive ground operations, eliminating one incentive for escalation. - War on the Rocks
Southeast Asia is Pivotal, and U.S. Strategy Should Aim to Keep it That Way By Adam Fields, Strategy Bridge: “In The Art of War, Sun Zi warns that “the general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat.” INDIA AS CHINA'S COUNTER-WEIGHT: Read the full piece here. WHY MODI IS FAILING: Continue here.
The Nicaraguan authorities and paramilitary groups working with them have killed, tortured, raped and forcibly disappeared anti-government protesters, creating a climate of fear that is driving thousands of people to flee the country, the United Nations said Wednesday. - New York Times
T.V. Paul writes: For the foreseeable future, India will likely pursue soft balancing, limited hard balancing and diplomatic engagement with China. The limited hard balancing involves asymmetrical capability acquisition and the building of additional strength on the border and naval assets in the Indian Ocean. - War on the Rocks Reconciling priorities in the India-U.S. relationship (Real Clear World) The U.S-India security relationship is underpinned by a strong foundation of shared interests and ideologies. However, India’s relationships with opponents of the United States may act as a roadblock to future collaboration. Can India help the United States against China?
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Lawfare Previous US presidents have tried to convince New Delhi to take on a more proactive role in balancing against China. The hope is that India’s involvement will force China to divert and thinly spread its resources, efforts, and capabilities from its eastern borders to its western borders. Operation Sea Shield seen as a Russian power projection BY GIOVANNI PIGNI Kremlin claims deployment of warships aims to deter a US or NATO strike on the Assad regime, but critics say it's a bid to deflect attention from looming offensive and to show off Russia’s growing naval muscle in the eastern Mediterranean The U.S Navy on Friday formally reactivated the Cold War-era naval command it relied on for decades to confront adversaries in the waters off North America — the latest in a series of efforts to check Moscow's military expansion. - Politico
President Trump’s “Space Force” proposal would help prevent the U.S. energy grid from going dark in an emergency or an attack, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said in an exclusive interview with the Washington Examiner. - Washington Examiner If the U.S. Air Force finds itself in a conflict with Russia, it won’t be able to simply rely on its major operating hubs in Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. So it’s getting more expeditionary thanks to a new “air base in a box” that will enable the service to rapidly move to a partner nation’s airfield, set up a squadron and begin flying combat missions. - Defense News General Dynamics NASSCO in San Diego and BAE Systems Norfolk have both received roughly $147 million contracts to modernize the cruisers Cowpens and Gettysburg, which have been in layup since Fall of 2015. - Defense News Editorial: By the middle of the 21st century, ground forces will employ tens of thousands of robots, and the decisions of human commanders will be shaped by artificial intelligence; trends in technology and warfare make this a near certainty. The military organizations of the United States and its allies and partners must plan now for this new era of warfare. - Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments |
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