By Estelle J. Townshend-Denton, Divergent Options: “In Syria the Shabbiha has grown from a trans-border criminal network to sectarian militias fighting for the regime. The Shabbiha are a significant impediment to the resolution of the Syrian civil war.”
- Al Qaida’s Syrian offshoot, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra or the al-Nusra Front, emerged in 2011 against the backdrop of the Syrian civil war. In July 2016, the group announced it was "splitting" from the al Qaida network and rebranded itself as Jabhat Fateh el-Sham (JFS), but many believe no real separation occurred.
- Last January, JFS merged with four smaller Syrian jihadist factionsto form an umbrella organization called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It now dominates approximately two million people living in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, the most populous area held by rebels.
- HTS has seized upon the opportunity presented by the Syrian civil war to champion itself as a defender of the Syrian people, administering key social services and emerging as the strongest opposition force fighting the Assad regime. But U.S. intelligence officials assess that ultimately, the group still aligns itself with al Qaida’s worldview and maintains a long-term focus of attacking the West.
By Danny Sjursen, RealClearDefense: “This month, the Trump administration all but pledged itself to an open-ended nation-building operation in U.S.-occupied, northeast Syria. Given America’s uninspiring recent track record, this should concern us all.”
Cynicism in Syria
By Dominique Moisi, The Strategist (ASPI): “In his book The grand strategy of the Byzantine Empire, political scientist Edward Luttwak credits Byzantium’s longevity to the quality of its diplomacy. By relying on persuasion, alliances and containment, rather than force, Luttwak argues, the Eastern Roman Empire managed to last for eight centuries—twice as long as the Roman Empire from which it sprang.”
Earlier this week, the U.S. coalition says it killed an estimated 100 pro-Assad regime fighters in Syria in defense of its own troops. It’s the largest clash reported to date between U.S.-backed forces and pro-regime forces in Syria.
Here’s what happened, according to public statements given by actors involved:
- About 500 pro-regime troops “initiated an unprovoked attack”against a Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) headquarters, where U.S. coalition advisors were working with the U.S.-backed fighters, according to statement from U.S. Central Command.
- The exchange took place 5 miles east of the established Euphrates River de-confliction line, where the pro-regime forces had advanced “likely to seize oilfields in Khusham,” a U.S. official told Reuters.
- Coalition and Russian officials were “in regular communication…before, during and after” the assault, the same official said. Russian officials assured the Coalition they would not engage coalition forces in the vicinity.
We asked retired Admiral Sandy Winnefeld, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for his take on the incident.
- “It is easier for Russia to deny involvement in an action, particularly if there is collateral damage or human rights are violated, when it uses contractors who do not wear Russian military uniforms. It also lowers (in only a very small way) the likelihood of a confrontation with the U.S. if these forces come into contact.”
- Far from winding down, Syria’s war escalates on multiple fronts