U.S. Aims Lethal Blow at Tehran’s Finances by Prohibiting Oil Exports David Adesnik | Director of Research Russia’s Gas Web Ensnares Europe New pipeline projects throughout the Middle East could boost Russian influence there while also ensuring the country’s role as the prime supplier of energy to Europe. US expected to announce end to Iran oil import waivers The Donald Trump administration is expected to announce today that it is ending waivers for imports of Iranian oil as of May 2 in the latest escalation of its “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. The State Department in November issued 180-day waivers to give eight countries a short time window to end their imports. Greece, Italy, and Taiwan have since done so, while China, India, Turkey, Japan and South Korea now must follow suit or face US sanctions. A few of the buyers will be granted short wind-down periods but will not receive further waivers as the United States seeks to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero. Read More Tightening the screws on Iran. And . . . ? Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas Sanctions aren’t a goal; they’re tools to get to something else. And it’s high time the president was frank with us about what that something else really is. US cuts Iran oil waivers in move to force Tehran out of nuclear deal
Washington is letting sanctions waivers for countries that import Iranian oil expire as it tries to make Iran quit the 2015 nuclear deal before a UN arms embargo is lifted next year as part of the agreement.
A New EastMed Friendship, with US Support
By Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos, April 10, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The prospective EastMed pipeline would be the flagship project of the Cypriot-Greek-Israeli collaboration, a developing friendship that enjoys deep foundations. The US has now made its support for that partnership official. Continue to full article ->
The Eastern Mediterranean and the EU Parliamentary Election
By Dr. Spyridon N. Litsas, May 3, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The states of the Eastern Mediterranean should pay close attention to the upcoming European parliamentary election, as its outcome will influence geostrategic and economic developments in that region. Israel, Cyprus, and Greece will have a major role to play in strengthening Western relationships in the region for decades to come. Continue to full article -> U.S. and Oman Sign Strategic Port AgreementNicole Salter | Project Manager Behnam Ben Taleblu | Senior Fellow Why Iran is silent about US military deal with neighboring Oman
Iran has demonstrated no sign of outrage at a recent US-Omani military deal as the American Indo-Pacific Strategy seems not to clash with Iran's interests in the region. INFECTED US OIL TURNED AWAY IN ASIA & RUSSIAN OIL POLICY IN ARTIC EXPOSED FOR GEOPOLITICAL TIES3/28/2019 Nikos Tsafos writes: Every move that Russia makes to develop energy resources in the Arctic is seen as further proof for an unsettling proposition: unlike the United States, Russia takes a strategic view toward Arctic energy; it spends serious money to develop the region’s resources; and it is using the Arctic to boost ties with China and, more recently, Saudi Arabia. There is truth in that worldview, but it also leaves much out. – Center for Strategic and International Studies On March 11, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused the Russian oil giant Rosneft of defying US sanctions by purchasing oil from the Venezuelan state-owned oil PDVSA, which has been sanctioned since January. Pomepo said: […]the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “The threats coming from the US Secretary of State against the Rosneft company over its cooperation with Venezuela are senseless. It has been hit by sanctions since 2014, but continues successfully working. Meanwhile, its former US partners, whom Washington had forced to curtail cooperation, suffered serious damage.” – Middle East Media Research Institute
Fuel Shortage Persists in Syria amidst Tougher Sanctions Enforcement
David Adesnik | Director of Research
India wants to keep buying Iranian oil at its current level of about 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), as it negotiates with the Washington about extending a sanctions waiver past early May, two sources in India with knowledge of the matter said. – Reuters
Iran hopes to have its part of a new payments vehicle — devised to allow it to trade with EU firms despite US sanctions — — ready within a fortnight, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse Israel‘s navy could take action against Iranian oil smuggling, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, urging world powers to foil any effort by Tehran to evade US sanctions. – Reuters Hanin Ghaddar writes: Despite Hezbollah’s repeated claims that foreign sanctions would not affect its capabilities, evidence suggests that the group is facing a serious financial crisis. Its leaders have already implemented harsh new austerity measures, and sources close to the group believe these efforts will become more severe over time. […]Although Iran has not stopped sending money to Hezbollah so far, the group realizes that continued sanctions and/or altered regional circumstances may require it to seek alternative sources of funding down the road. – Washington Institute Pakistan’s military is taking a key role in the development of one of the world’s biggest untapped copper and gold deposits, which is currently stalled by a multi-billion dollar legal wrangle with foreign mining firms, multiple sources familiar with the situation said. – Reuters
Asad Hashim writes: The question is one that strikes at the heart of how power is distributed in Pakistan; of whether an elected civilian leader can exert control over the country’s powerful military; of whether Pakistan is truly willing to give up support for armed groups that it has used as proxies for decades; and of whether the country—which has long frustrated successive U.S. governments, likely none more so than Donald Trump’s administration—is truly changing its foreign-policy and security stances beyond a focus on neighboring India. – The Atlantic Arzan Tarapore writes: The India-Pakistan crisis seems to have peaked. The two sides continue to trade intermittent small-arms and artillery fire across the Line of Control that divides Kashmir. India has shown itself to be more and more militarily aggressive after the 2016 and 2019 responses. Unlike the deniable 2016 raid, India’s 2019 strike at Balakot compelled Pakistan to retaliate. But an India with few other viable options for deterrence, increasingly enamored by military swashbuckling and encouraged by the United States, may become seduced by competitive risk-taking. – War on the Rocks Chabahar Port Deal Threatens to Capsize Iran Sanctions
Varsha Koduvayur | Senior Research AnalystAndrew Gabel | Research Analyst Libya’s largest oil field to resume operations Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced on Monday that it is reopening its largest oil field. Forces loyal to the eastern Libyan government and to military strongman Gen. Khalifa Hifter took control of the El Sharara field last month. Hifter’s offensive came after local tribesmen seized the field demanding their salaries from the Tripoli-backed NOC. Tripoli said its decision to reopen El Sharara came after it received assurances from Hifter’s forces that all armed groups had left the field. El Sharara normally produces 315,000 barrels of oil per day. Read More Tobruk parliamentarian explains south Libya's support for Hifter In an interview with Al-Monitor, a member of the Tobruk-based parliament talks about Gen. Khalifa Hifter’s operation to cleanse the south from armed gangs and secure oil fields. Based in the east of Libya, Khalifa Haftar has made no secret of his ambition to capture Tripoli, the northwestern seat of the internationally-recognized government. His threats were long dismissed as bombast, but a lightening advance through the south this year has put Haftar in control of most oil resources and could embolden him to make his much-vaunted final push. – Bloomberg
Mammoth gas discovery off Cyprus intensifies regional rivalries Cyprus’ Energy Minister Georgios Lakkotrypis announced on Thursday that ExxonMobil has discovered the third-biggest gas deposit in the world off the coast of the island, which is subject to territorial claims from Turkey. The deposit is southwest of the island, close to Egypt’s territorial waters, and contains anywhere from 142 billion to 227 billion cubic meters of gas. ExxonMobil Vice President Tristan Aspray floated constructing a plant to process the gas on Greek Cyprus. Exxon partners with Qatar Petroleum to carry out exploratory drilling off the Mediterranean island, a point of contention with Turkey despite its alliance with Doha. Read More While it is unrealistic to expect a dramatic turnaround of an oil-revenue-dependent economy within a few years, it is also hard to imagine how Saudi Arabia can sustain the current rate of expenditure. Finish here. Saudi Gas Export Plan Shines New Light on Efforts to Isolate Iran By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 14, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Saudi plans to become a major gas exporter within a decade raise questions about what the real goal of the kingdom’s policy, and by extension that of the US, is towards Iran. Continue to full article -> Aramco boosts crown prince's agenda with $10 billion bond to buy Saudi petrochemicals giant
Saudi Aramco will issue its first bond of $10 billion as early as next week, the Wall Street Journal reported today. The bond will shed unprecedented light on the operations of Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company as it seeks to buy a majority stake in Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC), the kingdom’s petrochemicals firm. Riyadh has repeatedly delayed publicly listing Aramco. The move is part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to modernize and diversfiy the kingdom's oil-based economy. Read More Libya’s El Sharara oilfield, the country’s biggest, remains closed because an armed group is still there, the chairman of state oil firm NOC said on Sunday. – Reuters Afghanistan began exports to India through an Iranian port on Sunday, official said, as the landlocked, war-torn nation turns to overseas markets to improve its economy. – Reuters
The Gulf’s eastward turn: The logic of Gulf-China economic ties
Karen E. Young | American Enterprise Institute Arab Gulf states are expanding their political and economic ties with China as a bridge strategy to create a next-generation energy market in traditional oil and gas products, as well as petrochemical production and future market access in expected areas of consumer growth. |
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