Carmen M. Reinhart | AEI Economics Working Paper Series
This working paper, based on Carmen Reinhart's Adam Smith Lecture at the 60th National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in September 2018, takes a selective global tour of some of the prominent economic and financial risks in advanced, emerging, and low-income developing economies.
Carmen M. Reinhart | AEI Economics Working Paper Series
This article, based on Carmen Reinhart’s Adam Smith Lecture at the 60th National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting on September 2018, takes a selective global tour of some of the prominent economic and financial risks in advanced, emerging, and low-income developing economies. She briefly discusses some persistent medium- to long-term concerns about the rising levels of US public debt, the tensions that arise from internal economic objectives, and the external pressures associated with the US dollar’s role as the world’s principal reserve currency. The tour starts with an assessment of the 2008–09 global financial crisis’ recovery experience.
The crisis next time
Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart | Foreign Affairs
Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart argue that there remains a central warning of 2008: Countries should never grow complacent about the risk of financial disaster. The next crisis will come, and the more the world forgets the lessons of the last one, the greater the damage will be. The authors ask, 10 years after the financial crisis, what have we learned. They believe the most disquieting lesson is how complacent politicians, policymakers, and bankers had grown before the crisis and how much they had forgotten about the past. The crisis also proved that inflation can be too low. The real tragedy, however, is that none of these lessons is new; that the world had to relearn so many important lessons during the last crisis suggests that it will forget them again.