Michael Belongia & Peter Ireland, E21
In his July 1986 Presidential Address to the Western Economic Association, Allan Meltzer noted that “the tradition in which many of us were raised is that policymakers should adjust policy actions based on forecasts of the future path of the economy and their best judgments.” Meltzer went on to show that Federal Reserve staff forecasts on economic performance were often so imprecise that predictions just one quarter into the future could not distinguish statistically between the likelihood of strong economic performance or a recession. Read more here....