Surprise nighttime attack in the Muthanna neighborhood earlier this month is among the adjustments Iraqi forces are making to jump-start their fight to take the northern city of Mosul. It was the first night operation in their fight against the Islamic State. In recent weeks, the number of advisers from the U.S.-led coalition assisting them has also increased, and airstrikes used to disrupt deadly car bombs have intensified. – Washington Post
Iraqi special forces battled Islamic State militants on Monday in two key neighborhoods in the eastern half of Mosul, a senior commander said, advancing deeper after fully routing IS from the sprawling complex of the Mosul University, a major step in the massive operation to retake the city. – Associated Press Report: Syria is emerging as the newest and most important safe haven for al-Qaeda as the radical Salafi-jihadi ideology threatens to subvert the pluralistic and nationalist goals of the 2011 Syrian Uprising. And it is Bashar al-Assad who is directly responsible for creating the conditions that are empowering al-Qaeda in Syria, as the policies pursued by his government are creating the sociopolitical conditions for extremism to thrive. – Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
Ike's Gamble: America’s Rise to Dominance in the Middle East by Michael Doran PART 1 of 2.
“This book is subversively revisionist history with sharp relevance to the present. . . . [A] deeply researched, tightly argued and accessibly concise book. . . . [Doran ] writes with the authority of a scholar and the familiarity of a senior policy adviser.” (David Frum The New York Times Book Review) “Mr. Doran illuminates a narrative with which very few non-specialists will be familiar. . . . A thoroughly researched, closely argued work of traditional diplomatic history.” (James Traub Wall Street Journal) "This is a story that has been told many times, but seldom with the depth and stylistic elegance of Ike's Gamble. Michael Doran does not just challenge the prevailing historiography, he turns it on its head." (Ray Takeyh The Weekly Standard) “The failure of the British-French invasion of Egypt in 1956 was one of the seminal events of the second half of the twentieth century: it marked the end of Britain’s and France’s aspirations to world leadership. America’s involvement is brilliantly described in Ike’s Gamble, a thoughtful and articulate account of the evolution of America’s role in that fateful period.” (Henry A. Kissinger) “Deeply researched, well-written and powerfully persuasive, this book revises everything we’ve come to accept about America’s role in the Middle East in the 1950s. This highly readable and remarkably forthright book explains how America changed from being a mere 'honest broker' in Middle Eastern affairs to being a committed player.” (Professor Andrew Roberts, Lehrman Institute Distinguished Fellow, New-York Historical Society) "[Doran] fits the Suez crisis into a broader argument about American policy in the Middle East during the Eisenhower administration. . . . Ike’s Gamble [is] a timely intervention into current debates. Obama won’t read it, but Hillary Clinton should." (Adam Kirsch Tablet) “Ike's Gamble is a brilliant and fascinating story,compellingly told, of American politics, government, and foreign policy. Doran paints a fascinating portrait of how American foreign policy is designed, how mistakes are made, and how Eisenhower came to understand the errors that had strengthened America's enemies.” (Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations) “Riveting, original, and deeply relevant. . . . This is a history of the formative Cold War years that continue to shape current conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and other parts of the region. Anyone interested in the contemporary Middle East and U.S. foreign policy should read this book.” (Jeremi Suri, Author of Liberty’s Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama) “With this highly original and persuasive new book, Mike Doran offers a fresh interpretation of Eisenhower’s Middle East policy. Doran also sheds new light on the complexities of the Middle East and American policy challenges there today. This is a compelling history by an accomplished scholar.” (William Inboden, Executive Director and William Powers, Jr. Chair, theClements Center for National Security at UT-Austin) “Doran is so good at bringing Eisenhower and his challenges to life that one can’t avoid making comparisons with the tough choices confronting the United States today. I can’t think of another book that so thoroughly challenged my assumptions about America’s role in the Middle East.” (Will McCants, author of The Isis Apocalypse and Director, Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at The Brookings Institution) “A detailed analysis of the context for the Suez Crisis of 1956. . . . A disturbing history that clearly reveals the dangerous ‘collective American delusion’ about the Middle East, which the author believes still persists today.” (Kirkus Reviews) https://www.amazon.com/Michael-Doran/e/B00QRH0CR6/ref=dp_byline_cont_book_1
Aaron Menenberg writes: A result of Obama’s approach to the conflict is the split it has caused in the Democratic Party over American support for Israel and its role in finding a resolution. Centrist Democrats who condemned Obama over 2334 and continue to believe in the two-state solution are making arguments that not too long ago were overwhelmingly shared within the party….If Obama decides to pursue another effort to weaken Israel before he leaves office, it may be impossible for pro-Israel Democrats to remain at ease with their party. – The Tower
Reuel Marc Gerecht writes: The truth about Fatah's security weaknesses is symptomatic of the truth about the Palestinians: They can exist as a non-Islamist polity only if Israel protects their attenuated nation-state. If the Jews pull back, then the militant Muslim faithful will probably recast the Palestinian identity, wiping away the secular Palestinian elite who have defined the Palestinian cause among Westerners since the Israelis and the Palestine Liberation Organization first started sparring with each other in 1964. – The Weekly Standard
Fixing the Israeli Peace PrOcesO
Tested by Zion: The Bush Administration and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Jan 14, 2013 by Elliott Abrams
This book tells the full inside story of the Bush Administration and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Written by a top National Security Council officer who worked at the White House with Bush, Cheney, and Rice and attended dozens of meetings with figures like Sharon, Mubarak, the kings of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and Palestinian leaders, it brings the reader inside the White House and the palaces of Middle Eastern officials. How did 9/11 change American policy toward Arafat and Sharon's tough efforts against the Second Intifada? What influence did the Saudis have on President Bush? Did the American approach change when Arafat died? How did Sharon decide to get out of Gaza, and why did the peace negotiations fail? In the first book by an administration official to focus on Bush and the Middle East, Elliott Abrams brings the story of Bush, the Israelis, and the Palestinians to life. https://www.amazon.com/Tested-Zion-Administration-Israeli-Palestinian-Conflict/dp/1107031192/ref=la_B001HO5XHI_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1483055919&sr=1-1 Operations launched in Iraq to retake Anbar from ISIraqi joint forces launched an assault on the last Islamic State (IS) stronghold in Anbar province today. Maj. Gen. Qassim al-Muhammadi, commander of Operation Jazeera, said that the assault is aimed at clearing northern Anbar along the Iraq-Syria border of IS elements. After liberating the area, all of Anbar will be under the control of the Iraqi government.
The US-led coalition against IS has provided air support to the Iraqi army, which has been joined in the battle by local police, factions from the predominantly Shiite Popular Mobilization Units and fighters from Sunni tribes. Iraqi forces launched the operation from Haditha, 150 miles northwest of Baghdad, and moving north have advanced 40 miles to Anah Egyptian police have arrested four people in connection with the bombing that killed dozens of Christians at Cairo's Coptic Christian cathedral last month, the Interior Ministry said on Wednesday. - Reuters Egyptian police arrested four people suspected of involvement in a Cairo church bombing last month, the Interior Ministry announced on Wednesday. The ministry pinned the attack on the Muslim Brotherhood, alleging that the perpetrators received financial and logistical support from leaders of the group residing in Qatar, despite the Islamic State having claimed responsibility for the attack, which according to the latest death toll killed 28 people. The ministry identified one of those arrested as Karam Ahmed Abdel-Aal Ibrahim, who is believed to have helped plot the attack. The three others detained were alleged to be planning more attacks. One suspect is still on the run.
CIA shakeup. The CIA might be in for a major overhaul if President-elect Donald Trump and his administration get their way. The Wall Street Journal has discovered that Team Trump is working on a plan “to restructure the Central Intelligence Agency, cutting back on staffing at its Virginia headquarters and pushing more people out into field posts around the world,” Damian Paletta and Julian Barnes report.
The proposal sounds quite a bit like what Michael Flynn -- Trump’s national security advisor -- wanted to do while director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and Flynn and Rep. Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.), whom Trump named as his nominee to be the next CIA director, are reportedly pushing the planning. Flynn and Pompeo, according to the WSJ“share Mr. Trump’s view that the intelligence community’s position—that Russia tried to help his campaign—is an attempt to undermine his victory or say he didn’t win, the official close to the transition said.” Flynn’s blueprint. Take a look at this October 2013 interview Flynn did with James Kittfield for DefenseOne. Flynn talks about how intelligence agencies and U.S. Special Operations Forces have integrated operations in the field over the past 15 years, and given his SOF history, he says Washington bureaucracies need more of that. “There’s this tendency to view Washington as at “the center” of things,” Flynn said, “with everything else happening out there on ‘the edge.’ But the edge is where really important things are happening, which means we need to change the mindset in Washington. Those people and organizations in the field should be seen as the center of gravity. We need to make them the centerpiece of everything we do.” The persistent slump in oil prices, combined with rapid population growth, has forced all the Gulf monarchies to consider austerity and economic overhauls. The reaction here in Kuwait, by far the most open Gulf state, shows just how hard these measures could be to implement—and how much opposition they are likely to attract. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Muhammad Al Misned writes: Rebuilding the infrastructure, economies, educational and legal systems—and thus the very culture—of the Middle East is no simple task, but it is possible and starts with the U.S. setting a clear path for all to follow. Trust has been lacking between the U.S. and the Middle East, and Mr. Trump is uniquely positioned to restore it. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Russia Looks for an Exit in Syria
From Stratfor: “With their capture of Aleppo in late December, forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al Assad secured their biggest victory in the country's nearly six-year civil war. It is now clear that al Assad has weathered the critical threat to his administration's rule over key parts of the country. Military, diplomatic and financial support from Iran and Russia has played a tremendous role in the loyalist victory. But despite their shared cause in Syria and the considerable resources that each government has invested in the war, Moscow and Tehran do not see eye to eye on several issues related to the conflict. The two countries differ most notably in their commitment to the loyalist cause. Though Russia has already demonstrated its pledge to sustain and support loyalist forces in Syria, Moscow's commitment in the conflict simply does not rise to the level of Tehran's. Through its intervention in Syria, Russia is trying to boost its position in the Middle East, demonstrate its global stature, curtail the extremist threat and attain leverage in negotiations with the West. Iran, on the other hand, views the Syrian civil war as a critical front in an existential battle that directly relates to its geopolitical security.” Ousted during the Arab Spring uprisings, one of the Middle East’s wiliest politicians has risen up again. [Ali Abdullah Saleh] is taking advantage of the chaos of conflict and the political inexperience of the rebels to deepen his influence, officials and analysts say. – Washington Post
Surviving even birth is a struggle in Yemen. After nearly two years of war, thousands of children and adults have died from easily treatable diseases, illnesses and injuries as the health-care system collapses. – Washington Post Charles Krauthammer writes: The fall of Aleppo just weeks before Barack Obama leaves office is a fitting stamp on his Middle East policy of retreat and withdrawal. The pitiable pictures from the devastated city showed the true cost of Obama’s abdication. For which he seems to have few regrets, however. In his end-of-year news conference, Obama defended U.S. inaction with his familiar false choice: It was either stand aside or order a massive Iraq-style ground invasion. – Washington Post
Richard Cohen writes: Since the end of World War II, American leadership has been essential to maintain world peace. Whether we liked it or not, we were the world’s policeman. There was no other cop on the beat. Now that leadership is gone. So, increasingly, will be peace. – Washington Post
More than any other conflict, Afghanistan shaped Mr. Obama’s thinking on the basic questions of war, peace and the use of military power. It is where he discovered his affinity for drones, sharpened his belief in the limits of American intervention, battled his generals and hardened his disdain for unreliable foreign leaders. It reaffirmed his suspicions about sending American troops into foreign conflicts and made him reluctant to use more force in Iraq, Syria, Libya and other war zones. – New York Times
Russia is hindering the removal of one of Afghanistan’s most notorious warlords from a United Nations sanctions list, Afghan and Western officials said Monday, a move that could complicate efforts to implement a peace deal seen as a model for a similar accords with the Taliban and other insurgent groups. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) The Norwegian peace track overlapped with efforts by other countries to bring the Taliban to the table, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, and for years seemed to be making the most progress toward bringing the Taliban and Afghan officials together. But it all eventually fell apart under the weight of military and intelligence maneuvering and of distrust among a host of countries that were taking a hand in Afghan affairs. – New York Times The decision of Afghanistan’s first female airplane pilot to seek asylum in the U.S. drew anger from her home country’s military leadership, which said she could face disciplinary action if she didn’t return. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) The Taliban have continued their assault on Afghanistan’s southwestern Helmand province with fresh attacks in two key districts, Afghan security forces said, as NATO announced that its forces last year suffered the fewest casualties since the U.S. invasion in 2001. – Stars and Stripes Thomas Joscelyn writes: Al Qaeda’s plan has worked so well that the Russians would have us believe that the Taliban, al Qaeda’s longtime ally, should be viewed as a prospective partner…Here’s one thing the Trump administration should do right away: Make it clear that the Taliban and al Qaeda remain our enemies in Afghanistan. – The Daily Beast |
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