Dennis Ross writes: There is one last irony to the focus on settlements in the meeting between Netanyahu and Trump. By forcing the issue prematurely, Israel’s rightist parties may produce the opposite of what they intended — a deal between the Israeli and American leaders that limits construction to the settlement blocs, permitting the Trump administration to claim it changed policy from Obama but also preserving the possibility of two states. – Foreign Policy
Bret Stephens writes: The U.S. cannot solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; only Palestinians can. The U.S. does have an interest in strengthening ties between its allies, both for their own sake and to counter their common enemies. If the Palestinians want to be a part of the solution, so much the better. If they want to continue to be a part of the problem, they can live with the consequences. The principles are straightforward. The courage to stick to them will be the test of Mr. Kushner’s diplomatic mettle. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Analysis: Bloody protests in Baghdad over the weekend by followers of influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr signal the resumption of a power struggle between Iraq's Shi'ite leaders which had been put on hold to focus on the war against Islamic State. - Reuters Al-Qaeda’s main affiliate in Iraq avoided extinction at the hands of U.S. and Iraqi forces a decade ago by backing away from military engagements and moving the remnants of its network underground until its reemergence as the Islamic State. That successor organization, now confronting its own eventual fall, is devising a modified survival strategy that may involve surrendering control of its “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria but seeks to preserve a virtual version of it online. – Washington Post
Indian security forces in Kashmir engaged in an intense, 12-hour-long gun battle with militants that ended late Sunday morning, leaving four militants, two soldiers and one civilian dead, the authorities said. An additional civilian died after a protest. – New York Times
In the space of a few days last month, five Pakistani bloggers — all known as left-leaning social-media activists — were abducted and vanished into unknown hands. After a domestic and international outcry, the missing men suddenly reappeared this month — safe and unharmed, but just as mysteriously. – Washington Post
THE CIPHER BRIEF: PRESIDENT TRUMP & POLICY CHANGE IN MIDDLE EAST
Editorial: The horrific abuses inflicted by the regime on tens of thousands of Syrians ensure that it will never be tolerated by the vast majority of the population. Its barbaric practices render it unable to compromise with people it has attempted to murder en masse. A decision by the Trump administration to tolerate or even support the butchers of Damascus will only result in more warfare, more recruits for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and more unconscionable murders at Saydnaya prison. – Washington Post
Fred Hof: Russia and Iran split over Syria?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to convince President Trump in a telephone call that arming Kurdish fighters in Syria to fight the Islamic State would be counterproductive to the military effort and damaging to already strained ties between the United States and Turkey, American and Turkish officials said Wednesday. – Washington Post
Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad have dramatically stepped up their attack on the Islamic State in recent weeks, just as the Trump administration is reportedly offering Turkey a larger military role in the assault on the terrorist group’s self-proclaimed capital of Raqqa, two developments that could transform the battle against the Islamic State in its Syrian stronghold. – Washington Times
After two years as the CIA’s “fixer”, distributing arms and planning military operations in Syria, Abu Ahmad was thrown into prison. On his release, he was temporarily forced into hiding, then fell into ignominy in the eyes of fellow rebels….The story of his rise and fall offers a rare insight into how the CIA operated within the confines of President Obama’s halfhearted Syria policy. It reveals how the rivalries between US bureaucracies — and, even more importantly, the growing divergence between Washington and its Nato ally Turkey — exacerbated Syria’s mayhem. – Financial Times
Frederic Hof writes: Speculation about Russia and Iran splitting over Assad is interesting. The truth will be found in Moscow’s view of what should follow ISIS. Washington is free now to elicit that view and answer the question. – Defense News
SYRIA, CAUCASUS: Caucasus Emirate Branch Links to Al Qaeda Affiliates in Syria
From Caleb Weiss, Threat Matrix (A Blog of FDD's The Long War Journal): “The Caucasus Emirate branch Vilayat Kabarda, Balkaria, and Karachay (KBK) recently released a video in which fighters from the Caucasus Emirate’s (CE) wing in Syria are shown partaking in battles in northwestern Syria. It is unknown if all the fighters shown in the video are from Vilayat KBK, other branches of the CE, or local members of the group. The Caucasus Emirate, an al Qaeda-linked organization, has had at least two official representative groups inside Syria fighting alongside al Qaeda’s forces.” An unprecedented number of Afghans are flooding back into their war-torn homeland, many of them forcibly evicted from neighboring Pakistan and Iran but also from Europe….The returnees are coming back to a country where extreme poverty is rife, security is shaky, and where the Taliban has gained more territory than at any time since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty FPI Policy Director David Adesnik writes: The choice now facing President Trump is a deeply unpleasant one. He has announced his determination to stamp out radical Islamic terrorism, yet he has also made clear that he is tired of inconclusive foreign wars. Now he must decide whether to take responsibility for turning around an unpopular war, because there is no other way to ensure the defeat of terrorists determined to attack America. – Foreign Policy Initiative As the Taliban and Islamic State ramp up their insurgencies against the government of President Ashraf Ghani, new revelations of corruption and double dealing have put into doubt the effectiveness of the $69 billion the U.S. has spent training Afghanistan's army, with calls mounting for President Donald Trump to review the 15-year war in Afghanistan. - Bloomberg The impact of a $41.2 million contract for reforming land administration in Afghanistan is unclear due to lack of oversight documentation by the U.S. Agency for International Development, according to a report from the Pentagon's top Afghanistan watchdog. – Washington Examiner The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan said Thursday that Russia and Iran are supporting the Taliban in part to undermine the U.S. and NATO mission to attain peace and stability in the nation. – Washington Free Beacon
Which Muslim Brotherhood?
From H.A. Hellyer, Atlantic Council: "The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) at its origin in 1928 Egypt was the politicisation of a certain type of Muslim modernism, “Modernist Salafism,” which strongly influenced Hasan al-Banna, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood. Both the movement of ‘Modernist Salafism,’ and al-Banna himself, were deeply controversial within the wider Muslim religious establishments of their day. To blithely describe either as simply ‘political Islam’ is to reduce all expressions of Islam in the public arena to this Brotherhood type of Islamism, and also imbues both ‘Modernist Salafism’ and the Brotherhood with a religious authenticity that was disputed by the religious establishment of their day."
President Trump’s advisers are debating an order intended to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organization, targeting the oldest and perhaps most influential Islamist group in the Middle East. – New York Times
William McCants and Benjamin Wittes writes: Here’s a dirty little secret: the U.S. government hasn’t been wildly under-designating foreign terrorist groups over the past two administrations. If a group isn’t designated, it’s probably not because the last president, and the one before that, were surrounded cabals of Brotherhood sympathizers. The simpler explanation is closer to the truth: the law won’t support the action Trump and his supporters are itching to take. – Brookings Institution Fifty miles north in Mosul, beleaguered Islamic State fighters have lost control of half of their last major stronghold as Iraqi security forces advance. But at least five of the 25 oil well fires left in the militants’ wake still rage, according to Reuters, forming a second front in the battle for Iraq that is no less dangerous for the proud men involved. – Washington Post David Ignatius reports: Rather than a shattering defeat for the adversary, Mosul may be the start of a breakout to other regions. That may be one rationale for Trump’s controversial ban on travel from Iraq and six other Muslim-majority countries, which was rejected Thursday night by a federal appeals court. Defenders of the ban could argue that it might prevent a metastasis of the Islamic State into the West after its capitals are crushed. – Washington Post
The SWAT team was created in 2008 and, in conjunction with U.S. Special Forces, conducted raids in Mosul to arrest high-value terrorism suspects. After the American withdrawal from the country, in 2011, the unit hunted down insurgents on its own. – The New Yorker Josh Rogin reports: Despite the Trump administration’s travel ban, the Iraqi member of parliament whose impassioned plea for help spurred the United States to intervene to save Yazidi civilians from the Islamic State made it to Washington this week to accept a human rights award. Her message is that people around the world still look to the United States to defend the vulnerable and stand up for human rights, even if the U.S. president won’t. – Washington Post Emily Anagnostos writes: Abadi is at risk of losing his position before the operations against ISIS conclude and has been forced to make concessions to militias that are often contrary to U.S. interests in order to guarantee that he keeps his seat. He has not been able to stop Iranian-backed militias from resuming operations near Tal Afar, for example. The concessions will likely exacerbate sectarian and ethnic tensions if they benefit pro-Iranian interests at the expense of Sunni Arabs. The U.S. will need to ensure that PM Abadi has the support he needs to keep his position without conceding to Iranian interests that could undermine recent anti-ISIS successes. – Institute for the Study of War A Sunni insurgency is taking root in Iraq as the U.S.-led coalition continues to weaken the Islamic State's territorial strongholds, particularly in Mosul, according to a new report. – Washington Free Beacon The battle to wrest the strategically key city of Mosul, Iraq, from the hands of the Islamic State is one of the central campaigns of Operation Inherent Resolve, and the biggest since the war against ISIS began 2½ years ago. – Military Times The top U.S. commander of the anti-Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) coalition said Wednesday the campaigns to retake both Raqqa, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq, from the terrorist group should be done within six months. – The Hill Inside the Propaganda War for Mosul
From Pete Knoetgen, Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy (JMEPP): “The propaganda war for Mosul provides a window into the two sides’ differing organizational priorities, and the political terrain which the Iraqi government must dominate if it hopes to stabilize Ninewa Province. Major combat operations in the Battle for Mosul will likely conclude in the coming months, but the degree to which the current messaging campaigns resonate with Ninewa residents could have significant effects on the Iraqi government’s long-term legitimacy in the region.”
“Indiana” Hoenlein and the Balfour Declaration Centennial, 1917-2017
Following talks with PM May in London, Netanyahu visits the room where then-foreign secretary Arthur Balfour penned his famous declaration announcing British support for “the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people.” “With British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, exactly in the place where nearly 100 years ago Foreign Secretary Balfour signed the declaration recognizing the right of the Jewish people to a national home in the Land of Israel,” Netanyahu writes on Facebook, in a blurb accompanying an image of him and Johnson. “The Balfour Declaration was incorporated into the terms of the British Mandate and adopted by the United Nations – and until today it reminds a binding document that defines the international legal status of the Land of Israel. Being in this room was a particularly moving moment for me as the prime minister of Israel.” http://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/in-moving-moment-pm-visits-site-of-signing-of-balfour-declaration/
The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East by Eugene Rogan. Part 1 of 6.
By 1914 the powers of Europe were sliding inexorably toward war, and they pulled the Middle East along with them into one of the most destructive conflicts in human history. In The Fall of the Ottomans, award-winning historian Eugene Rogan brings the First World War and its immediate aftermath in the Middle East to vivid life, uncovering the often ignored story of the region's crucial role in the conflict. Unlike the static killing fields of the Western Front, the war in the Middle East was fast-moving and unpredictable, with the Turks inflicting decisive defeats on the Entente in Gallipoli, Mesopotamia, and Gaza before the tide of battle turned in the Allies' favor. The postwar settlement led to the partition of Ottoman lands, laying the groundwork for the ongoing conflicts that continue to plague the modern Arab world. A sweeping narrative of battles and political intrigue from Gallipoli to Arabia, The Fall of the Ottomans is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the Great War and the making of the modern Middle East. https://www.amazon.com/Fall-Ottomans-Great-Middle-East/dp/0465097421/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1486501013&sr=1-1 The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan said on Thursday that there was a need for a "holistic review" of the relationship with Pakistan, potentially opening the door for a new approach to one of America's most vexing alliances. - Reuters Suddenly confronted with a U.S. president who has declared war against Islamist extremism and has expressed little interest in the long history of political accommodation and security alliances between Washington and Islamabad, officials here are struggling to find a middle ground that may no longer exist. – Washington Post
Katherine Zimmerman writes: The US must sustain support for the Saudi-led coalition in order to have leverage over Riyadh. The US should use that leverage to pursue a negotiated political solution at the regional, national, and sub-state level. The final resolution of the conflict must allow Saudi defense minister Mohamed bin Salman to cast it as a win for Saudi Arabia, yet must ensure that the al Houthis are not marginalized, isolated, and dependent on Iran. The US must not out-source its Yemen policy to Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Neither will act to secure US interests in full in Yemen and their divergence on key questions may prolong instability. – AEI’s Critical Threats
Why are we in Yemen? Simon Henderson, @washinstitute. Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres.
The Saudi military acknowledged that two of its sailors were killed and three injured, but also claimed that the ship continued its patrol duties. If so, it was lucky to escape serious damage to its steering and propulsion. Good fortune aside, the incident suggests troubling vulnerabilities in the Saudi navy. Western forces in the region believe the kingdom's fleet is limited to daytime operations because of crewmen's inability to fully operate the sophisticated technology on their otherwise top-of-the-line equipment. Yet this attack happened in broad daylight, and a potential suicide boat should never have been allowed to get so close given the ship's capabilities. For example, U.S. forces use maneuver and warning actions in such situations to determine if hostile intent exists, including bridge-to-bridge communications, changes in speed and direction, flares, nonlethal cautionary actions, and warning shots. This allows them to either justify the use of force or deescalate the situation. Yet video of the Saudi incident shows no evidence of such action. To be sure, the ship was largely designed for air defense and antisubmarine roles, so it may have been more vulnerable to a seaborne attack. While its 70 mm and 40 mm guns can be used against surface targets, they are primarily for air defense, and their location on the bow and midship may have limited field of fire astern and complicated defense measures once the smaller, faster boat closed within striking range. Even so, the frigate was designed to carry a helicopter, and there is no indication one was in the air during the incident. In a U.S. encounter, Navy helicopters would have tried to block the small boat early on, using flares, smoke floats, and warning shots to keep it well away from the ship. Yesterday's attack also echoes certain aspects of other naval attacks in the Yemeni theater. On October 1, an antishipping missile launched from a Houthi-controlled coastal missile site severely damaged the Swift, a former U.S. Navy High Speed Vessel sold to the United Arab Emirates and operated by the Saudi-led coalition as a troop landing and logistics ship. Similar to the Saudi frigate, the Swift was shadowed and filmed by another vessel before being fired upon. The United States responded to that incident by sending a trio of warships to protect the narrow Bab al-Mandab shipping lane from further disruption. Over the following two weeks, the USS Mason warded off two further missile attacks, spurring Washington to order Tomahawk cruise missile strikes against Houthi-operated radar sites. These strikes seemed to end the antishipping missile threat in the area, but yesterday's attack shows that the conflict's ripples are still being felt in the waters off Yemen. Although the Saudi frigate's presumed military mission -- enforcing a blockade on the nearby Houthi-controlled port of Hodeida -- may have been affected, the incident has wider implications than demonstrating the stalemate in the coalition campaign. The Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean is a potential chokepoint for international vessels using the Suez Canal to the north. On December 21, an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel was allegedly attacked there, though sources are unclear whether it was hit by a Saudi airstrike or rocket fire from a nearby boat. Further attacks on commercial shipping would likely cause an immediate reaction in the insurance market. Moreover, Iran's reported backing of the Houthi rebels necessarily raises comparisons between the Bab al-Mandab situation and the even more significant chokepoint in the Persian Gulf's Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world's oil supplies flow. Small, fast boats deployed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regularly harass U.S. Navy ships and others transiting that narrow waterway, using tactics similar to those seen in the Saudi frigate attack. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY Warships operating in the Bab al-Mandab will be at risk until Yemen's 1,100-mile coastline is secure. Accordingly, the U.S. military should increase its transfer of tactics, techniques, and procedures to Saudi Arabia and the UAE so that they can better defend themselves against antishipping missiles and hostile small boats. Such efforts would quickly help Saudi-led naval forces operating against the Houthis to protect their vessels while deterring future aggression through denial of its effects. Additionally, U.S. forensics experts should be sent to discover the origin of weaponry used against the frigate, thus providing the coalition with further information on thwarting future attacks. More broadly, Washington may want to treat the incident as an opportunity to press Riyadh on seeking a diplomatic resolution to the conflict rather than persisting with what appears to many as an unwinnable war. • http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-saudi-houthi-war-at-sea • https://www.ft.com/content/d9d6f33a-e6c5-11e6-967b-c88452263daf • http://www.jpost.com/American-Politics/Trump-and-Saudi-king-agree-to-support-safe-zones-in-Syria-479967 • http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=479967# President Trump Needs to Reverse Course on Iraq – and Fast.
From Daniel Benaim & Hardin Lang, RealClearDefense: “Last week, President Trump ordered his national security team to undertake a 30-day review of the nation’s strategy to combat ISIS. However, in just the 11 days since he took office, Trump has already jeopardized the hard-earned gains of the last two years against ISIS in what has been the central theater of the campaign: Iraq.”
A Sustainable Security Strategy for Afghanistan
From Nicholas R. Morrow, The Cipher Brief: “The Afghanistan and Pakistan region is home to 20 UN and U.S. designated terrorist organizations, including al Qaeda, the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Haqqani network. This is a higher concentration than any other region of the world, and it is why preventing Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven from which these groups can plan attacks needs to be a priority for U.S. President Donald Trump.”
Islamabad: Incubator for Islamist Insurgents, Inc.
From Robert Cassidy, RealClearDefense: "The main reason why we are still in Afghanistan after fifteen-plus years lies in the title. The sanctuary in Pakistan is the single most significant strategic impediment to stability in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Almost every U.S. DOD report on progress in Afghanistan since 2008 explicitly states that Pakistan’s sanctuary and support prevent the defeat of the Taliban. The reduction of this sanctuary and stopping the sources of support of the Taliban in Pakistan is a strategic imperative to ending the war in Afghanistan with modest success. Pakistan’s failure to alter its strategic calculus, its incubation, and regeneration of murderous Islamist zealots, continues to pose a grave strategic risk for the war in Afghanistan. "
The sudden house arrest of a high-profile Islamist cleric in Pakistan on Monday sparked peaceful protests Tuesday by his followers, who condemned it as a government effort to appease the Trump administration after it banned visitors and refugees from seven Muslim-majority countries over the weekend — and after a top presidential aide hinted that Pakistan could be added to the list. – Washington Post
Pakistan, often in the headlines for terrorism, coups and poverty, has developed something else in recent years: a burgeoning middle class that is fueling economic growth and bolstering a fragile democracy. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
FOR THOSE OF YOU INTERESTED IN THE PICTURE AND WHY IT WAS CHOSEN, HERE'S THE REASON: PAKISTAN'S DOMINANT POLITICAL-MILITARY CLASS HAS ALWASY SOUGHT LARGER CLIENT STATES TO UNDERWRITE THEIR GEOPOLITICAL AMBITIONS. THE OIL PIPELINE (ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CHINA) SUSTAINS, INSTITUTIONALIZES STRUCTURAL OPACITY IN ISLAMABAD'S CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS. WITH FOREIGN CURRENCY COMING IN UNDER THE AUSPICES OF NATURAL GAS/OIL, THEIR'S NO INCENTIVE FOR REFORM.
American airstrikes hit Taliban positions in an embattled district of Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan on Tuesday after the militants tunneled under an army post and set off explosives, causing heavy casualties, Afghan officials said. – New York Times
This is what life looks like in dozens of human encampments scattered across the Afghan capital this winter — all of them precarious perches for tens of thousands of people displaced by conflict in one way or another. – Washington Post In his first report to the new Trump administration, a U.S. watchdog that monitors billions of dollars in aid to Afghanistan issued a bleak progress report, saying the Afghan government controls barely half the country, its security forces numbers are on the decline and drug production is on the rise, while eradication is down. – Associated Press |
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