Iran has invited Pakistan and China to participate in the construction of the port of Chabahar in southeastern Iran, Pakistani media reported today. The news comes as Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif is on a three-day trade visit to Islamabad. India and Afghanistan are already participating in the port project intended to increase connectivity and trade ties with landlocked Central Asia. Read More
Iran invites Pakistan, China to participate in port project
Iran has invited Pakistan and China to participate in the construction of the port of Chabahar in southeastern Iran, Pakistani media reported today. The news comes as Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif is on a three-day trade visit to Islamabad. India and Afghanistan are already participating in the port project intended to increase connectivity and trade ties with landlocked Central Asia. Read More
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WHY THE NILE RIVER SPLITS THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE AFRICAN HORN & SAUDI ARABIA SEEKS NUCLEAR WEAPONS3/14/2018 Sudan invites Egypt and Ethiopia to discuss contentious Nile dam
Sudan on Tuesday invited Egypt to participate in a tripartite meeting with Ethiopia in April to discuss the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The project has strained bilateral relations between Khartoum and Cairo as Egypt worries that it could impact its share of Nile water. Sudan, meanwhile, has sided with Ethiopia, which maintains that the dam is necessary for its development. Read More Saudi Arabia affirms peaceful nuclear program Saudi Arabia on Tuesday approved a national atomic energy policy affirming that Riyadh will limit its nuclear activities to peaceful purposes within the limitations of international treaties. Riyadh hopes to reach a civil nuclear agreement with Washington to use US technology to build as many as 17 nuclear power plants. However, the Saudis have argued that such an agreement should not require them to give up the right to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium, activities that could be used in an illicit nuclear weapons program. Read More The desolate terrain of Egypt’s Western Desert is emerging as a new frontier in the global fight against terrorism. Militant groups linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda are using the desert as both a haven and a crossing point for smuggling fighters, weapons and illicit goods from Libya, where lawlessness rules. - Washington Post Great Game struggle for control of strategic port
PK SEMLER, CAPITOL INTELLIGENCE Strategically located in the center of the Mediterranean, Tunisia's ancient port of city of Bizerte has bcome the focus of a new Great Game struggle between the North African country’s former colonial ruler, France; its oldest ally, the United States; and an aggressive new arrival, China. This new struggle between the three powers is focused on who will develop and control the deep-water port, already the nexus of a critical submarine fiber optic network connecting... TURKEY, IRAQ: Turkey Poised to Open a Military Front in Iraq By Zülfikar Doğan, Al-Monitor: “Turkish-Iraqi relations had become extremely tense until the decision by Massoud Barzani, former president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), to hold an independence referendum for Iraqi Kurdistan. Barzani's ill-fated move made fast friends of Ankara and Baghdad. Now, it appears that Turkey and Iraq have found further common cause, this time for joint military action against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The Missed Kurdish Moment By Will Staton, Strategy Bridge: “Considered the world’s largest stateless group, an estimated around 25 million Kurds live in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Armenia, and Iran.” Senior Kurdish official, key to US policy in Syria, killed (The Associated Press) A senior Kurdish official who played a key role with the United States in implementing its post-Islamic State group policy in northern Syria has been found dead in his apartment, Kurdish officials said Thursday. 10 Takeaways From the Fight Against the Islamic State (War On The Rocks) Nearly three years on from the Islamic State’s high water mark in the summer of 2015, there are several lessons that the United States and its allies can discern from the terrorist group’s meteoric rise to control large parts of Iraq and Syria to the loss of its physical caliphate late last year. In Afghanistan, A Protracted Stalemate
Ali Wyne, The National Interest The United States has been at war in Afghanistan for over 16 years, at a cost of over $1 trillion. But the Taliban now controls more territory than at any point since the U.S.-led invasion. This should give pause to observers who believe that the United States is, or will soon be, poised to turn the tide in Afghanistan. Read more » Saudi crown prince comes to Washington Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is coming to Washington to shore up support at a time when the situation at home and in the United States is more complicated than ever. Russia considering course change after new challenges in Syria As Russia's presidential election approaches, Moscow finds itself recently pressured by several negative developments in Syria that are causing it to re-evaluate its strategy there. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is expected to begin a multiday tour of the United States with a first stop in Washington, DC, on March 19. On the occasion of MBS’ visit, revisit Danielle Pletka’s AEIdeas blog from last June, written on the occasion of MBS’ elevation to crown prince. In the piece, Pletka explains the uphill challenges MBS faces in reforming his country through the highly discussed Saudi “Vision 2030” plan. Find it here.
"Turkistan Islamic Party highlights joint raids with the Afghan Taliban," Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss, FDD's Long War Journal
"Qods Force chief: Israel’s destruction the blood debt of Hezbollah commander’s death," Amir Toumaj, FDD's Long War Journal Magnus Norell writes: The majority of Kurds had serious hopes that Kurds in Iraq and Syria would have a better political future when Islamic State was defeated in Mosul and Raqqa. Kurds had prevented the spread of global terrorism. They did not expect a gift, but they hoped that their basic rights as a nation would be respected. Will Kurds be abandoned? - Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Assassinations mount as Iranian Kurdish militants clash with Tehran Tension builds in northern Iraq as the conflict between Iranian-Kurdish militants and Tehran seems to escalate. As Kurds depart Islamic State fight, U.S. faces a void in Syria
Pakistan faces global banking isolation over terror financing BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID @KHULDUNE If Islamabad's plan to counter terror funding and money laundering fails to satisfy the Financial Action Task Force, the consequences could be grave Pakistan Taliban chief's son among 20 killed in 'US drone strike' (Al Jazeera) At least 20 members of the Pakistani Taliban, including the son of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Mullah Fazlullah, have been killed in a US drone strike in the northeastern Afghan province of Kunar, according to a Taliban statement. A suicide bomber blew himself up in the Afghan capital, Kabul, on Friday, killing at least seven people in an attack apparently intended to hit crowds gathered to commemorate a political leader from the mainly Shi’ite Hazara minority, officials said. - Reuters
The United States on Thursday said it was offering a $5-million reward for information on Mullah Fazlullah, the chief of the Pakistani Taliban militant group that has waged a decade-long insurgency in the South Asian nation. - Reuters The United Nations envoy to Afghanistan has urged the Taliban to accept an offer by Afghanistan’s government of direct peace negotiations that could lead to an end to more than 16 years of fighting. - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty The Taliban launched a deadly assault on an army outpost in a remote region of Afghanistan's northern Takhar Province, killing 10 local police officers and wounding nine, a local official said on March 9. - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Russia Can’t Solve Israel’s Security Dilemma By Alexandra Gutowski, RealClearDefense: “Israel was on the brink of war, reportedly until Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Netanyahu government to stand down. If true, this means that Russia has the ability limit Israeli freedom of action.” Fred Kagan: Russia's military posture The Iranian Express," Emanuele Ottolenghi, The Weekly Standard
Latest Kashmir killings raise questions over ‘army impunity’ BY MAJID HYDERI Describing civilians who are killed in encounters with security forces as 'over-ground workers' - allegedly hired by militants - has become a major worry in the restive northern state "FDD Profiles of Leading Iranian-Backed Militias," David Adesnik and Amir Toumaj, FDD Research
Iraq As a ‘Client State’ of Iran By Isaac Kfir, The Strategist (ASPI): “Iraq is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in May. At least 28 Iraqi political parties associated with paramilitaries that fought Islamic State (IS) have registered to run candidates. Many of these parties, like their ‘parent’ militias, have close ties to Tehran.” MEI’s Ahmad Majidyar: IRGC says Iran has tripled missile production Iran's missile production has increased three-fold: Guards commander (Reuters) Iran has increased its missile production three-fold, a senior Revolutionary Guards commander said Wednesday, according to the Fars news service. The state of dissatisfaction within Iran today suggests that the regime “is in deeper trouble than any time since the fall of the Shah,” writes John Nixon, a former CIA senior leadership analyst.
Iran’s oil-and-gas industry was supposed to take off after the nuclear deal. Instead, one of the world’s largest energy sectors is languishing. - Wall Street Journal
Iran is building and testing short- to medium-range missiles armed with chemical warheads in Syria, former Syrian general Zuhair al-Saqit told [The Jerusalem Post's sister publication] Maariv. - Jerusalem Post
"Erodgan's Rising Islamist Militarism," Eric Edelman and Merve Tahiroglu, The Weekly Standard
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dr-aykan-erdemir-with-eye-on-elections-turkeys-erdogan-stokes-fears-of-kurds-to-amplify-anti/
Saudi crown prince to visit Egypt Saudi Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman is expectedin Egypt on Sunday for a two-day visit ahead of scheduled trips to Britain and the United States. A Saudi government source said Thursday that the powerful prince’s visit to Egypt “reaffirms Saudi-Egyptian cooperation at the highest level.” The two leaders are set to hold talks on Iran, Yemen, counterterrorism and energy cooperation. Egypt is part of the Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen launched in March 2015 against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and is the only non-Gulf country to join the Saudi-led boycott against Qatar. Read More Israel and Egypt’s “cold peace” has developed into a growing security partnership over the past few years with the emergence of mutual security threats, particularly that of ISIS and other militants in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. This increased security cooperation will likely continue to trend upwards in the short term.
Iraqi parliament pressures Abadi to set timeline for US troop withdrawal
Iraq’s parliament voted Thursday to mandate that the government set a timeline for the withdrawal of foreign troops. The vote was proposed and backed by pro-Iran Shiite blocs, putting pressure on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi before May elections. “Parliament voted for a decision to thank friendly nations for their support in defeating Islamic State and at the same time to demand the government set a timeline for the withdrawal of foreign troops,” lawmaker Husham al-Suhail told Reuters. Fewer than 10,000 US troops remain in Iraq in training and advisory roles after President Barack Obama ordered their deployment to fight IS in 2014 at Baghdad’s request. “Our continued presence in Iraq will be conditions-based, proportional to need, in coordination with and by the approval of the Iraqi government,” said US Army Col. Ryan Dillon. Despite declaring victory against IS, Abadi has said that Iraq still needs US-led troops to ensure stability and train Iraqi soldiers. Read More Russia’s veto of the UK-drafted resolution on Yemen blocked a U.S. move to hold Iran accountable for its provision of ballistic missiles, among other materiel, to the al Houthi movement. The UN Security Council adopted an alternative draft from Russia (Resolution 2402) that excludes mention of Iran. The Critical Threats Project and Institute for the Study of War research team continues to assess that Iranian and Russian interests largely converge in the Middle East with exceptions related to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Analyst Maher Farrukh and I just authored a situation report that begins to pull together Russia’s engagements in Yemen as well as the posturing of Yemeni actors ahead of future peace talks. Incoming UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths will almost certainly facilitate a new round of negotiations, though the situation on the ground does not yet seem to lend itself to an agreement among the key actors. Please find recent readings on Yemen from the Critical Threats team, as well as a new article looking at the new scramble for East Africa. Russia pushed through a UN Security Council resolution draft on Yemen that did not mention Iran's provision of asymmetrical capabilities to the al Houthi movement, effectively blocking a U.S.-led effort to hold Iran accountable for its role in Yemen. Russian and Iranian interests largely converge in the Middle East, which includes the shared interests of reducing American influence in the region.
The United States will not be able to bring additional pressure against Iran through UN channels. The U.S. led a campaign in the UN beginning in mid-December 2017 to hold Iran accountable for violating UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the resolution supporting the Iranian nuclear deal, and UNSCR 2216, which established an arms embargo against sanctioned Yemeni actors in April 2015. The U.S. contends Iran has provided Yemen’s al Houthi movement with ballistic missiles and other materiel. The U.S. effort occurred as American officials also pressured Saudi Arabia to open the blockade of Yemen and pursue a political resolution to the Yemeni war. Russia vetoed a UK-drafted resolution in the Security Council that condemned Iran for violating the arms embargo and called for additional measures against Iran to address the violations on February 26. The Security Council passed a Russian draft resolution (Resolution 2402) preserving the current Yemen sanctions that excluded language on Iran. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley announced the U.S. would take action against Iran outside the UN. The U.S. released a joint statement with the UK, France, and Germany condemning Iran. The arrival of a new UN Special Envoy for Yemen has sparked renewed diplomatic engagements for Yemeni actors as they maneuver ahead of predicted peace talks. It is not clear that the two sides will be able to reach a mediated settlement, however. The outgoing special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed announced on February 9 that his successor will facilitate new talks in Muscat, Oman and briefed on February 27 that the previous round collapsed because “the Houthis were not prepared to make concessions on the proposed security arrangements.” Head of the al Houthi Supreme Revolutionary Committee Mohammed Ali al Houthi submitted a new six-point plan on February 21 to the UN outlining the way forward. Al Houthi officials held a series of meetings the month prior. Senior al Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdul Salam traveled to Oman on January 25 to release Danny Burch, an American citizen the al Houthis held captive since September 2017. The timing of the decision to release Burch and Salam’s departure from Yemen coincided with renewed al Houthi overtures for negotiations, and it is possible Salam met with Omani and Western officials in Oman before he left. British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi met with Omani Sultan Qaboos bin al Said during this time, for example. Salam traveled from Oman to Iran, where he met with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif andIranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Hossein Jaberi Ansari on February 10 and 12, respectively. Russia could be positioning itself as an opportunistic mediator in the Yemeni conflict. Members of the anti-al Houthi bloc notably met with Russian officials and continued discussions with Saudi and Emirati officials. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Yemeni Foreign Minister Abdul Malik al Mikhlafi on January 22 in Moscow, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov met with Ahmed Ali Saleh, the son of late former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, on January 26, in Abu Dhabi. The Transitional Political Council for the South (STC) may have successfully gained a seat at the negotiating table through its brief uprising against the internationally recognized Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi government in Aden in late January. The STC followed through on its January 21, 2018 threat against Hadi’s government in Aden by seizing military bases, taking over government buildings, and trapping Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed Bin Daghir in the presidential palace in Aden. The Saudi-led coalition, and possibly the UN, negotiated a settlement between the Hadi government and the STC, but the details of the deal are unclear. The STC turned over Aden to the Hadi government throughout the first week of February. STC President Aydrus al Zubaidi met with UN envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed in the UAE on February 14, and the STC allowed Daghir to leave Aden on February 16. The UAE launched two sequential operations to dismantle al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) strongholds in eastern Yemen in February. The first operation Operation Faisal began on February 16 when Hadhrami Elite Forces, backed by Emirati ground and air forces, started clearing AQAP from al Masini valley, roughly 100 kilometers west of Yemen’s third-largest port city, al Mukalla city. The operation aimed to disrupt AQAP’s supply routes that run along the Hadhrami coastline. Yemeni and coalition officers announced its successful conclusion on February 18, though clashes continued until AQAP forces withdrew to nearby Yab’ath district near the Shabwah border on February 23. Emirati-backed Shabwani Elite Forces then launched Operation Decisive Sword to clear AQAP from Wadi Yeshbum, al Said district in neighboring Shabwah governorate on February 26. The operation likely aims to prevent fleeing AQAP militants from Hadramawt from reinforcing AQAP’s stronghold in al Said, which Yemeni forces had claimed to clear in early January 2018. The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) Wilayat Aden-Abyan seems to be launching a campaign of complex attacks against Yemeni government sites in Aden that mirrors an AQAP signature tactic. Wilayat Aden-Abyan detonated twin suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) outside of a counterterrorism headquarters in Aden city before militants attacked the base with small arms. This attack was almost certainly perpetrated by the same cell responsible for resuming explosive suicide attacks in Aden in November 2017 after a nearly year-long gap in attacks. ISIS is likely building the VBIEDs either in Aden or neighboring Lahij, where ISIS previously maintained a VBIED factory. One of the militants responsible for the attack also participated in the Yemeni Army 22nd Mechanized Brigade in Taiz city, according to a local news source. (ISIS statements translated by SITE.) Delivery of humanitarian and commercial goods in Yemen remains delayed, further exacerbating the humanitarian situation.The Saudi-led coalition Yemen Comprehensive Humanitarian Operations (YCHO) is hindering humanitarian efforts by diverting cargo away from al Houthi ports, according to the UN. The coalition designed YCHO to enable the coalition to shape the delivery of aid for its own benefit. The humanitarian situation remains “catastrophic” despite an increase in international and coalition funding for aid relief. The rate of cholera cases and associated deaths are declining, but this trend will likely reverse during Yemen’s rainy season in April. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) increased due to an escalation in the civil war since December 2017. This increase will likely strain humanitarian services and accelerate the spread of disease. The Saudi-led coalition may perceive Russia’s veto in the UNSC as an indicator that the international community is not capable of diplomatically pushing back on Iran’s actions in Yemen. The coalition will likely continue to pursue a military solution to the conflict as a result. The coalition’s efforts to end the war militarily have been unsuccessful and will likely continue to fail, perpetuating conditions that allow groups like AQAP to flourish.
Strengthening Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security
By Anant Mishra, Small Wars Journal: “With a history of repeating multiple intelligence failures, the need to strengthen the NDS and other agencies into professional intelligence institutions is the need of the hour.” |
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