Saudi Arabia is distributing to members of Congress an unusual white paper that details its counter-terrorism efforts, a move that the kingdom hopes will shatter U.S. perceptions that it has done little to fight extremists — and maybe even derail some anti-Saudi legislation. - Politico
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Pakistan now finds itself on the brink of another selfinflicted crisis as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif struggles to fend off calls for his resignation while the country’s relationships with the United States and neighboring Afghanistan deteriorate. – Washington Post
Ahmed Rashid writes: Apart from its friendship with China, Pakistan suffers an isolation in the region that it can ill-afford. It needs move past the civil-military animosity to convince its neighbours of its seriousness. – Financial Times “In Libya, Politics Precedes Victory” (Tarek Megerisi, Sada) “Ultimately, Libya’s viability as a unified and peaceful nation-state has been tethered to domestic politics and an international policy founded on frenzied speculation about security threats. Ignorance of the Libyan context was what undermined the military intervention in 2011. The lack of political and humanitarian assistance to complement NATO’s efforts allowed Libya to fail as a state. Empowering politicians who had little actual influence but grand personal ambitions, rather than engaging stakeholders directly, allowed Libya’s post-revolutionary failures to compound. Five years on, the international community can learn from the mistake of engaging unilaterally without due respect to the context or risk repeating this factionalizing approach in an arena where the stakes have grown considerably higher.” Wednesday May 18 A new Obama administration plan to funnel international support to an untested government in Tripoli is intended to give Libya -- and U.S. policy -- another chance. – Los Angeles Times The top U.S. general overseeing American military operations in Africa said Tuesday that while Washington is considering sending weapons to Libya to fight the Islamic State, doing so will require taking cues from a fledgling unity government that is still struggling to establish support at home. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint This is the reality of life under the control of the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Libya, according to a report by Human Rights Watch, which includes allegations of crimes against humanity, war crimes, mutilation, beatings, and extra-judicial killings. – The Daily Beast Libyan military forces said on Tuesday they recaptured one of the main checkpoints south of the city of Misrata from Islamic State, reversing some of the gains the militant group made earlier this month. - Reuters Analysis: The Sykes-Picot Agreement, named for its British and French authors and the map it produced, is now widely considered a low point in colonial efforts to manipulate the region to fit the interests of outsiders. And yet the remnants of the agreement, which came to light after documents proving its existence emerged during the Russian Revolution in 1917, loom over everything Mr. Kerry and his fellow foreign ministers are doing here. – New York Times Mr. Mubarak remains confined to the hospital room that has doubled as a jail cell for the past three years, with a guard posted outside his door. His legal limbo continues even as many of his former allies, men who grew fabulously rich during his three decades of rule, are quietly cutting deals with the government to overturn their own convictions. – New York Times
Diplomats from 25 countries and international organizations, including the United States, said Monday that they are considering arming and training the new unity government in Libya so it can fight the spread of terrorist groups in the country and counter the smuggling of migrants to Europe. – Washington Post President Obama last month called the failed follow-up to the Libya mission in 2011 the "worst mistake" of his presidency, but the U.S. and its allies now find themselves increasingly being drawn back into the conflict. – Washington Times Rival factions have agreed in principle to have one oil organization for strife-torn Libya, the foreign minister in the new U.N.-backed, national unity government said on Tuesday. - Reuters Afghanistan signed a draft agreement with the Hezb-e-Islami militant group on Wednesday that the government hopes could lead to a full peace accord with one of the most notorious warlords in the insurgency. - Reuters Four nations — Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the United States — ended talks Wednesday much as they began, seeking peace in Afghanistan but with no real progress on how to get there or how to bring the most powerful of the country's insurgent groups, the Taliban, to the negotiating table. – Associated Press Ending C.O.I.N. in AfPak, Bringing Taliban to Peace Deal Failing A fifth round of four-nation talks aimed at laying the ground for a negotiated end to the Afghan war began in Pakistan on Wednesday, as hopes faded for bringing the Taliban insurgents to the table quickly. - Reuters Now, the money is drying up and a central goal of the U.S.-led effort to rebuild Afghanistan — that Islamist militants can be rehabilitated or paid off to reintegrate into the law-abiding public — is at a crossroads as the war drags into its 15th year. – Washington Post Afghan security forces on Tuesday foiled a suicide bomber’s attempt to attack the Interior Ministry in Kabul with an explosives-filled car, officials said. – Stars and Stripes FPI Visiting Scholar Mark Moyar writes: Reversing the tide in Afghanistan will require major changes in American strategy. To enable American troops to assist Afghan forces more effectively, the United States should increase U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan and relax restrictions on American participation in combat operations, as called for by the outgoing U.S. and NATO commander, Marine Corps General John Campbell. – Foreign Policy Initiative Pakistan/Bangladesh
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has defended his financial record and asked parliament to form a commission to investigate allegations stemming from the Panama Papers leak. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Bangladesh police have arrested an Islamist militant charged with the murder of a professor amid a surge in deadly attacks against liberal activists and other minorities in the South Asian nation, a senior officer said on Tuesday. - Reuters President Ashraf Ghani is inching closer to a peace deal with the leader of a militant group that, though largely inactive now, was a powerful force during Afghanistan’s civil war in the 1990s. – Washington Post
Taliban insurgents have cut the main highway that links the capital with northern Afghanistan and neighboring countries for the past three days, according to Afghan officials in the area. – New York Times In Afghanistan’s long war, Mr. Basir’s determination to kill one of his children was not unique, but rather just another sign of how long the violence has dragged on, and of how it has permeated the deepest levels of society and poisoned the closest of relationships. – New York Times A large demonstration against the Afghan government’s proposed route of an electric transmission line brought Kabul to a standstill on Monday, with security forces stacking shipping containers to block all paths to the city center and presidential palace. – New York Times Afghan and international forces expect a major battle to begin soon for control of southern Helmand province, largely overrun in recent months by the Taliban. The question is, who will strike first. – Stars and Stripes Afghanistan is expected to finalize a peace deal with a notorious militant group in the coming days, in what could be a template for ending the 15-year war with the Taliban, a government official and a representative of the militant group said Saturday. – Associated Press Shawn Snow writes: If the U.S. truly wishes to assist its partner in Afghanistan, where it has devoted blood and treasure for 15 years, it must end the debate over semantics and remove lawyers from the war room. It's time to take the handcuffs off American airpower. – Military Times Obama's Big Mid-East Muddle FPI Senior Policy Analyst Evan Moore writes: [W]ithout greater U.S. military and political support of the Iraqi government, ISIS will preserve its territorial safe-haven and retain the ability to mount more external attacks like those in Paris and Brussels. That should be unacceptable to this or any future administration, and the United States must devote all necessary resources to preventing it Libya & Tunisia: Tunisians form the largest contingent of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq. But with U.S. and Russian airstrikes hammering them there, and travel bans and stricter border controls in place, more Tunisians are joining the Islamic State in Libya. Increasingly, Libya’s conflict is spilling into Tunisia, the only country to emerge as a functioning democracy after the revolutions. – Washington Post A former senior Obama administration official said Thursday the White House is hotly debating whether to step away from demands that Syrian President Bashar Assad must step down as a precondition to peace talks to end the country's five-year civil war. – The Hill
[A]s the war drags on, Iran’s involvement in the conflict is deepening. While the advisory mission began as an effort to lend strategic advice to the Syrian army, Iranian forces are now intimately involved in planning specific battles….Yet, despite the mounting Iranian casualties in Syria, IRGC officers face no shortages of eager recruits – Foreign Policy David Ignatius writes: The Obama administration has another chance to enforce its botched “red line” against the use of chemical weapons in Syria, given new reports that President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has used nerve gas against extremist fighters and may be planning more such attacks – Washington Post Paul Bucala writes: The coming weeks will be a crucial indicator for the health of the Tehran-Moscow alliance as Iranian backed forces ramp up for a probable offensive south of Aleppo. They will also reveal how much effort Iran is willing to put into the Syrian war and how much it is prepared to lose on behalf of the Assad regime. – AEI’s Iran Tracker Reuel Marc Gerecht writes: Hillary Clinton has the component parts to break free from Obama's legacy—provided Middle Eastern events prove sufficiently shocking. She seems tough enough to challenge the Iranians and the growing passivity and pacifism of her own party. She could make the case with our allies for re-isolating the mullahs. If America's writ is to be restored, if Islamic militants who intend us harm are to be thwarted, a liberal internationalist, one of the last ones standing, will have to do it. – The Weekly Standard Pakistani Terror Squads Moving to Syria: Al Qaeda’s top leadership in Pakistan, badly weakened after a decade of C.I.A. drone strikes, has decided that the terror group’s future lies in Syria and has secretly dispatched more than a dozen of its most seasoned veterans there, according to senior American and European intelligence and counterterrorism officials. – New York Times
Somalia. A team of U.S. special operations forces patrolling with Ugandan peacekeepers outside of the Somali capital of Mogadishu on Thursday called in an airstrike on an al-Shabab position when they came under fire. It’s not the first time American troops have been in a fight this year in Somalia. In March, commandos, acting with Somali forces, killed up to 15 Islamists in a raid that came just days after a U.S. airstrike wiped outabout 150 al-Shabab militants at a training base in the north of the country.
“Saudi Arabia’s McKinsey reshuffle” (Adel Abdel Ghafar, Markaz)
“The 2030 document outlines a number of significant reforms that seek to change not only the Saudi economy, but state-society relations more broadly, in a way that hasn't been done since the Kingdom’s founding. The prince’s vision seems to have been inspired by a report issued by the McKinsey Global Institute in December 2015 titled ‘Moving Saudi Arabia’s Economy Beyond Oil.’ The vision and the report have similar policy prescriptions for diversifying the Kingdom’s economy away from oil. Such similarities highlight the influence of consultancies on policymaking in the Kingdom. Indeed, Bloomberg news reported that consultancies are set to earn 12 percent more in commissions in Saudi Arabia this year, the fastest growth amongst the world’s advisory markets. In a wide-ranging interview with The Economist in January, Prince Mohammed himself said that ‘McKinsey participates with us in many studies.’ According to the Financial Times, Saudi businessmen have sarcastically dubbed the Ministry of Planning as the ‘McKinsey Ministry.’” Small Teams of U.S. Troops Stationed in Libya The United States has positioned two “contact teams” of Special Operations Forces in Benghazi and Misurata, Libya, since late last year, according to a new report from the Washington Post. The deployment involves fewer than 25 soldiers, who are working with local forces to gain intelligence and identify potential partners. The U.S. troops are working in parallel with French and other European commandos also in the area. U.S. officials have discussed concerns about the Islamic State’s presence in Libya, particularly in Sirte, and the Pentagon has said it is working on plans to address the threat. Libya. We learned Thursday that about 50 American special operations forces have been in the country since last fall, where they’ve been searching for reliable partners to take the fight to the Islamic State, which has set down roots there. The U.S. has launched several airstrikes in Libya since late last year, but has been holding off on deeper engagement until a government is fully in place, U.S. officials have said. American Special Operations troops have been stationed at two outposts in eastern and western Libya since late 2015, tasked with lining up local partners in advance of a possible offensive against the Islamic State, U.S. officials said. – Washington Post
The first shipment of mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles (MRAP) from the US has been delivered to the Egyptian military, according to the US Embassy in Egypt. – Defense News The United States gave jeeps, communications technology and small aircraft to Tunisia on Thursday to help protect the border with Libya, where Islamic State has gained ground and set up training camps, officials said. - Reuters Several recent cases of police abuse – which the Tunisian government acknowledges still sometimes occurs – underscore the difficult path Tunisia is treading as it tries to both nurture the young democracy it founded after the 2011 revolution and simultaneously fight Islamist militants. - Reuters Mustafa Amine Badreddine, who was believed to be Hezbollah’s top military commander, was killed on Tuesday in an explosion near the Damascus airport, according to a statement by Hezbollah. Some Arab media reports have attributed the blast to an Israeli airstrike but social media accounts associated with Syrian rebel groups have claimed that he was actually killed south of Aleppo and that Syrian rebels were responsible for the attack. Badreddine has been involved in Hezbollah’s military operations since 1982 and was a close associate and relative of Imad Mughniyeh, who previously held Hezbollah’s top military post until he was assassinated by a car bomb in Damascus in 2008. He was indicted by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon as the mastermind of the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and was involved in the 1982 Beirut barracks bombing and bombings in Kuwait in 1983 targeting U.S. and French diplomats. David Daoud and Amir Toumaj write: Mustafa Badreddine, the head of Hezbollah’s military operations in Syria, was recently killed in an explosion near Damascus International Airport. Although the assassination bears some signatures of an Israeli operation, the Shiite militia has blamed Sunni jihadists. Bogged down in Syria, Hezbollah and its Iranian patron have every reason to downplay Israeli responsibility, thereby lifting pressure to retaliate in kind and risk a war with the Jewish state. – National Interest
Pakistan closes main Afghan border crossing On Tuesday, Pakistani authorities began fencing off one of the two main Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossings at Torkham, a site in Pakistan that connects Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province with Pakistan’s FATA (VOA). Done to restrict movement of Afghans coming across the border and to “tighten controls,” Afghan officials have voiced their concerns about the negative effect the action has on the transportation of goods and the many women and children seeking to travel to Pakistan for medical treatment who are now stuck in Afghanistan. Roughly 50,000 people, primarily Afghans, access the border crossing daily. Mohammad Nafees Zakaria, a Pakistan foreign ministry spokesman, said, “This is in the interest of all concerned to have a well-managed border, a border that has those fences or the check points so that the crossings could be monitored properly.” Tensions escalated further on Thursday as both countries deployed tanks and armored personnel to the border sit (Dawn). Negotiators from both countries met on the Pakistan side of the border at midday Thursday but were unable to reach an agreement. Afghanistan
Bonus Read: “Don’t let the U.S. abandon thousands of Afghans who worked for us,” by Ryan Crocker (Post) New Afghan force established in Helmand to weaken Taliban Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security has created and equipped a new 300-person fighting unit in Helmand to infiltrate and exploit divisions within the Taliban by embedding with local citizens and weakening the group’s stronghold in the province (Reuters). The unit’s existence was confirmed by Abdul Jabbar Qahraman, President Ashraf Ghani's special envoy for security affairs in Helmand. A provincial official reported that the unit has been active in the districts of Musa Qala, Nawzad, Marjah, and Nad Ali. The Taliban’s main spokesman in southern Afghanistan, Qari Yousuf Ahmadi, commented, “It is true that this contingent exists and operates mysteriously in some parts of Helmand. We have very strong intelligence and find those who want to infiltrate our ranks.” Local Helmandis have responded favorably to the newly-formed unit. Attaullah Afghan, a member of the Helmand provincial council, said, “It is a very good achievement by the Afghan government and has created splits within the Taliban.” Regional Objectives of ISIS in Iraq & clapper: the u.s. needs regional allies to fix near east5/11/2016 David Ignatius reports: Clapper, 75, has worked in intelligence for 53 years, starting when he joined the Air Force in 1963. He’s a crusty, sometimes cranky veteran of the ingrown spy world, and he has a perspective that’s probably unmatched in Washington. He offered some surprisingly candid comments — starting with a frank endorsement of President Obama’s view that the United States can’t unilaterally fix the Middle East. – Washington Post National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in an interview published Wednesday that he doesn't see Iraqi forces retaking Mosul from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria during the Obama administration. – The Hill
“How Al Qaeda is Winning in Syria” (Yasir Abbas, War on the Rocks) “Al-Nusra starts with embedding itself in the opposition and then incrementally moving to subsume, purge, or dominate revolutionary forces, both civilian and military. It has used this approach throughout Syria. Unlike ISIL, al-Nusra’s logic of control is defined by achieving a loose military and political dominance, rather than complete control, although the latter is its long-term objective. The group carefully chooses when and where to assert its authority to maintain a careful balance between its long-term aims—full control and establishing an Islamic Emirate in Syrian—and the need to appease revolutionary forces and the local population. Upon entering new territory, for example, al-Nusra often refrains from imposing its control on the population or governance institutions. Instead, it initially shares control with the groups already in power on the ground, even if they are secularists and oppose al-Nusra’s visions for Syria. Al-Nusra uses this approach to prevent an abrupt rejection by the local population that may result in a full-fledged confrontation with opposition armed groups, as well as to diffuse its presence in opposition-held areas. But sharing control does not necessarily foster agreement. It is a tactic to delay confrontation until al-Nusra has the military and political means to dispense with its temporary allies and purge, or subsume, their members. This gradualist approach dovetails with al-Nusra’s strategy to gain genuine grassroots support for its long-term political project.” Cash-strapped, resource-deprived, and sharing long borders with Iraq and Syria — the last two letters of the ISIS acronym — Jordan “is boxing well above its weight class in the war against radical Islamic terror,” a general officer involved in security cooperation with the kingdom told Defense News. – Defense News
Lebanon's militant Hezbollah group and its allies won a vast majority of seats in areas where they ran in local elections in eastern Lebanon, the group's deputy leader said Monday, a day after the vote took place. – Associated Press Avinoam Bar-Yosef writes: In every aspect of Israel’s existence there is plenty left to be plowed—plenty of room for improvement. Yet Israelis take comfort in looking back and savoring how much has been achieved, how sovereignty over the land of their forefathers was reclaimed. At least 60% of the Israeli population, now eight million, are Jewish immigrants or their children. Jews from more than 90 countries, of all colors and walks of life, are united in one society. They cherish the sense of self-determination. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Islamic State fighters extended their barrage of suicide bombings in Iraq on Thursday, killing at least 20 Iraqi soldiers and tribal fighters outside the western regional capital of Ramadi, and five policemen in a coordinated attack outside the Abu Ghraib district of Baghdad, officials said. – New York Times A day after the year's deadliest attack in the Iraqi capital, supporters of a Shi'ite cleric took to the streets of Baghdad on Thursday to denounce the government for failing to protect them, escalating political confrontation that could doom the ruling coalition. - Reuters A wave of Islamic State bombings in Baghdad has killed nearly 100 people in two days, exposing lingering gaps in the capital's defenses, which are manned by an array of security agencies and militias that don't always cooperate. – Associated Press Shooting and bomb attacks claimed by Islamic State killed at least 16 people in northern Iraq on Friday, days after Islamic State's deadliest blasts so far this year in the capital stirred public criticism of government security measures. - Reuters Robert Ford writes: The next U.S. administration will need to develop a more nuanced policy to secure the future of the Iraqi state, and do so in a manner that minimizes fighting and addresses the underlying grievances that allowed the Islamic State to incubate. Without national reconciliation, the Iraqi state will never be stable, and the seeds for extremist, revisionist groups like ISIS will remain. – Real Clear World When Moqtada al-Sadr called on his followers to fight against the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq following the 2003 invasion, they obliged to devastating effect…Now, he has turned his sights to Iraq’s corrupt halls of power, and the dramatic storming of Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone last week by his followers has shaken Iraq’s political system. – Washington Post Unlike previous demonstrations that have ebbed and flowed over the last year with little political effect, the thousands of protesters who ransacked parliament and accosted fleeing lawmakers shocked the country's perpetually bickering leaders and left many wondering whether the country's embattled prime minister will survive in office. – Los Angeles Times Mr. Talabani and the small delegation that Kurdistan has in Washington have used tactics similar to those of corporations that spend millions of dollars to grease the levers of power, retaining five firms to push its cause. They have been effective, winning over a rare combination of military hawks, conservative Republicans and a collection of liberal Democrats in Congress. More important, they secured a commitment late last month for $415 million in additional aid to support the Kurds’ pesh merga militia force. – New York Times Multiple attacks in Baghdad killed at least 15 people and wounded scores more on Sunday, a stark reminder of Iraq’s continuing instability amid a political crisis that is heaping pressure on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) The top U.N. envoy in Iraq strongly urged the country's political leaders and civil society on Friday to work together to resolve the current political deadlock, warning that the ongoing crisis and chaos are only serving the interests of Islamic State extremists. – Associated Press For nearly two years, U.S. airstrikes, military advisers and weapons shipments have helped Iraqi forces roll back the Islamic State group…But many Iraqis still aren't convinced the Americans are on their side. – Associated Press Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) writes: Why do Obama and his White House continue to peddle the fiction that U.S. forces are not engaged in combat? Perhaps the commander in chief is truly unaware that they are, which would be troubling indeed. More likely is that because he’s told the American people repeatedly that he will end wars and won’t send combat troops to the Middle East, the word contortions coming from the White House are part of a twisted attempt to salvage and protect the president’s legacy. – Washington Post “Muqtada al-Sadr’s Changing Role in an Unchanging Iraq” (Nabeel Khoury, MENASource)
“Just prior to sending his followers into the Green Zone, Sadr reportedly traveled to Beirut to consult with Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary General -- who is respected by Iraqi Shia leaders. Sadr has not been shy in expressing his admiration of Nasrallah, describing himself once as “the striking hand of Hezbollah in Iraq.” Sadr’s recent speech was also replete with Qur’anic references, likely thrown in to reflect his improved religious scholarship gained from recent studies in Iran, and a Nasrallah-style delivery, down to hand gestures and an emphasis on the interests of those he represents rather than on any personal ambition of his own. Nasrallah’s influence could be positive or negative, depending on how Sadr chooses to use it. The former’s pragmatism could induce the latter to be satisfied exercising influence from behind the scenes without seeking to assume power directly. He has said in his recent speech, as well as on previous occasions, that he seeks only to influence government rather than replace it. While all signs thus far indicate a commitment to a nonviolent movement, it remains to be seen whether the relatively young and passionate Muqtada al-Sadr has accumulated enough political wisdom in recent years to exert his influence on Baghdad’s power elite peacefully or, if in a rush to cash in on his popularity, he might precipitate a violent confrontation in an already tense and complex Iraqi environment.” Yemen Saudi Arabia will send troops into Sanaa, the Yemeni capital, if peace talks between the Saudi-backed government and Shiite rebels fail, a military spokesman said Wednesday, raising the specter of extended conflict. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint Saudi Arabia's former intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal said that getting nuclear weapons is an option that's on the table for the kingdom if Iran makes a break for a nuclear bomb. In the meantime, however, he stressed that a nuclear program was not Saudi Arabia's first choice, preferring instead for the region to be a nuclear-free zone. Prince Turki spoke at an event organized by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy alongside Israeli Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror (ret.), a former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Saudi Arabia issued a royal decree reshuffling the country’s cabinet, including replacing Ali al-Naimi, who has been oil minister since 1995, with Khalid al-Falih, chairman of Saudi Aramco. “The Battle over Arab Public Space and Ideas” (Rami Khoury, Cairo Review)
“It is not a good sign when a government says it promotes democracy yet sends its police to intimidate and arrest journalists and prevent peaceful public demonstrations. In this vein, the Egyptian government’s storming of the Egyptian Press Syndicate’s offices on May 1 is only the latest and most dramatic move by Arab governments to use a variety of means at their disposal to control what citizens have access to in their media. This is not a new trend, as Arab governments have tried for sixty years -- since the Egyptian invention of the Ministry of Information in the 1950s -- to shape the minds and actions of citizens, so that they conform to what the government believes is appropriate behavior. The danger today is that many Arab governments, very much led by the Egyptian example, simultaneously seek to limit the content of the traditional media while also clamping down on free expression through free-wheeling social media or civil society activism.” After years of failed overtures, representatives of Mr. Hekmatyar, whose whereabouts is unknown, are now said to be finalizing a peace agreement with the struggling government of President Ashraf Ghani, according to representatives from both sides. If signed, the agreement would allow Mr. Hekmatyar to return to Kabul for the first time since 1996 – New York Times Green Beret Speaks Out About Civilian Moral Cowards A combat-hardened Green Beret has unleashed a barrage of indictments against the command in Afghanistan and policymakers in Washington, saying the 14-year-old war effort suffers from a "profound lack of strategy" and that special operations overseers show "moral cowardice." – Washington Times The Taliban claims they shot down a U.S. drone earlier this week in Afghanistan, and U.S. officials have acknowledged that one of their unmanned aerial vehicles is indeed missing. – Military Times Afghan Interior Ministry says Haqqani network is commanding the Taliban According to Afghan government officials, the Pakistan-based and al Qaeda-affiliated Haqqani network has taken over command of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan (VOA). Sediq Seddiqi, a spokesman for the Afghan Interior Ministry, said, “The Taliban are currently being commanded by [the] Haqqani [network]. We believe Haqqani and al Qaeda are two different names for the same terrorist organization.” U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Charles Cleveland, deputy chief of staff for communications for NATO’s Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan, noted, “Siraj Haqqani, has been named the number two for the Taliban. And we think that he is increasing really, his day-to-day role in terms of conducting Taliban military operations.” The Haqqani network has allegedly had ties with Pakistan’s military-intelligence community and been provided safe haven in Pakistan – a claim the Pakistani government denies. “Spring on the Afghan Front Lines,” by Danielle Moylan (NYT) “U.S. Role in Afghanistan Turns to Combat Again, With a Tragic Error,” by Matthew Rosenberg and Joseph Goldstein (NYT) Bonus Read: “Haqqanis Steering Deadlier Taliban in Afghanistan, Officials Say,” by Mujib Mashal (NYT) Buses, fuel truck collision kills 73 in Ghazni A collision and subsequent explosion of two buses and a fuel truck in Ghazni province on the main highway that connects Kabul to Kandahar killed 73 people and wounded 50 others on Sunday (BBC, AP,NYT, Al Jazeera). The Associated Press reports that the director of the provincial traffic department, Mohammadullah Ahmadi, blamed the crash on reckless driving. Reports from Afghan officials cite a passenger count of 125-140 passengers on the two buses. An Al Jazeera reporter notes that the drivers of the two buses and fuel tanker may have been speeding to avoid attacks from the Taliban, who maintain checkpoints along the road the buses and tanker were travelling. He said, “It looks like the bus driver was trying to avoid any Taliban checkpoints, and the tanker driver was trying not to be ambushed by the Taliban.” Afghan government executes six Taliban prisoners The Afghan government hanged six Taliban prisoners, convicted of terror-related crimes, in the Pul-e-Charkhi Prison in Kabul on Sunday (NYT, Al Jazeera, Post, Reuters). These were the first executions of President Ashraf Ghani’s tenure, and come in the aftermath of the April 19 truck bombing at Kabul’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) that was carried out by the Taliban-affiliated Haqqani network and killed 64 people. Executions had been stopped during former president Hamid Karzai’s administration as a way to get the Taliban to the negotiating table for peace negotiations. Before the executions occurred, the Taliban warned of “serious repercussions” if they were to be carried out. Two Romanian soldiers killed in inside attack in Kandahar On Saturday, two men wearing Afghan security forces uniforms opened fire on and killed two Romanian coalition troops at an Afghan compound in Kandahar (Post, Long War Journal, Telegraph/AFP). Another coalition service member was wounded. The Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs acknowledged the deaths via their Twitter page. The military coalition released a statement saying, “Two Resolute Support (Nato) service members died this morning when two individuals wearing Afghan uniforms opened fire... in southern Afghanistan. Resolute Support members returned fire and killed the shooters.” This “green-on-blue” attack – when Afghan forces kill international operators – is the first in more than a year. The Taliban nor other insurgent groups have yet claimed responsibility. Pakistan Khurram Zaki, a prominent blogger and rights activist who actively opposed the Taliban and other Islamist groups, was shot and killed in Karachi on Saturday night by four unidentified gunmen on motorbikes (NYT, Reuters). He was 40 years old. The Hakeemullah group, a faction of the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility for the attack in a phone call to Reuters and said it was carried out due to Zaki’s campaigning against Maulana Abdul Aziz, a prominent Sunni cleric of Islamabad’s Red Mosque. A statement on the website that Zaki helped run said he had been “a target of a systematic hate campaign” by an Islamist political leader and another Pakistani Taliban-affiliated group, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Asad Iqbal Butt, a member of the independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, said, “Being an activist in Pakistan is highly risky, as the state has yet to eliminate the sectarian militias that kill with impunity.” Pakistani economy is growing but remains restrictive According to the Express Tribune, Pakistani’s economic growth outlook is at 4.5 percent for the current financial period, up from 4.2 percent at the current time last year (ET). This is due in part to the energy-starved country’s easier access to oil due to low prices, and Islamabad’s subscription to the International Monetary Fund’s program giving easier access to credit in exchange for more fiscal discipline. However, according to the World Bank’s Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index, Pakistan remains the world’s seventh-most restrictive and protective economy due to high tariffs on imported goods. Son of Pakistani immigrants elected London’s first Muslim mayor Sadiq Khan, the son of two Pakistani immigrants, was elected London’s first Muslim mayor and sworn in on Saturday (NYT, Intercept). Khan, a member of the Labour Party, received wide praise for an election that saw him win 1.3 million votes in his defeat of the Conservatives’ Zac Goldsmith. On Twitter, Khan received congratulations from British Conservatives like business secretary Sajid Javid, also a son of a bus driver and a second-generation Pakistani. Afghanistan News: The Long War The closer integration of the feared Haqqani militant network into the leadership of the Taliban is changing the flow of the Afghan insurgency this year, with the Haqqanis’ senior leader increasingly calling the shots in the Taliban’s offensive, Afghan and American officials say. – New York Times Mr. Obama has portrayed that combat role as over. But as the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Islamic State in Iraq have threatened the delicate stability he hoped to leave behind, American forces are increasingly being called on to fight. – New York Times Several times in the hours leading up to the disastrous U.S. airstrike on a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, American military operators came tantalizingly close to making the right decision that could have averted the deaths of 42 patients and staff. But each time, haste or a broken communication system or a crew member's failure to follow through with conviction brought the AC-130U "Spooky" gunship's crosshairs back to the Doctors Without Borders hospital instead of the intended Taliban-infested building 480 yards away. – Washington Times Afghan officials hanged six Taliban prisoners Sunday, a resumption of executions in the war that makes good on President Ashraf Ghani’s recent promise to deal harshly with insurgents, now that hopes for peace negotiations have evaporated. – Washington Post Taliban insurgents publicly executed two women, one of them in an apparent honor killing, in northern Afghanistan recently, according to Afghan officials, members of the victims’ families and a video posted online. – New York Times Two Afghan army recruits opened fire on international coalition soldiers in Kandahar province on Saturday, killing two Romanians and wounding another, according to an Afghan official and a coalition statement. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Afghan special operations forces freed 60 prisoners from a Taliban prison in southern Afghanistan on Thursday, according to a statement from the U.S.-led mission there – Washington Post's Checkpoint During the past 10 months, about 300 Afghan journalists have fled the country for safer ground, many of them to Europe, according to a new survey released by Nai, a group in Kabul that promotes an independent news media in the country. – Washington Post’s World Views The U.S. Embassy in Kabul is warning Americans in the country to use extra caution after an attempted kidnapping of several expatriates. – The Hill A shadowy, Pakistan-based militant faction is on the rise within the Taliban after its leader was appointed deputy and played a key role in unifying the fractured insurgency. – Associated Press Amid fierce fighting after the Taliban captured the northern Afghan city of Kunduz last year, U.S. special forces advisers repeatedly asked their commanders how far they were allowed to go to help local troops retake the city. They got no answer, according to witnesses interviewed in a recently declassified, heavily redacted Pentagon report that lays bare the confusion over rules of engagement governing the mission in Afghanistan. - Reuters Pakistan/Bangladesh Unidentified gunmen have killed a Pakistani rights activist known for campaigning against both religious extremism and the head cleric of a radical Sunni mosque, police officials said. – New York Times [A]nalysts say there has been no clampdown on what Pakistan's security establishment regards as "good" militant organizations — those that don't attack Pakistan and whose ranks include fighters willing to carry out operations in India or Afghanistan. – Los Angeles Times A local Sufi Muslim leader in northern Bangladesh was found hacked to death in a secluded mango grove, the police said on Saturday. – New York Times AfPak Political Economy Power-delivery project for AfPak launched in Tajikistan On Thursday, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and Kyrgyz Prime Minister Sooronbai Jeenbekov attended the unveiling ceremony in Dushanbe, Tajikistan for the $1.17 billion CASA-1000 power project that will carry roughly 1,300 megawatts of electricity from hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan into Afghanistan (300 MW) and Pakistan (1,000 MW) through a 759 mile-long power-transmission line (RFE/RL, ET, VOA). According to PM Nawaz, “CASA project will help mitigate (the) electricity deficit of Pakistan and Afghanistan. It will provide new employment opportunities to the people.” The project, scheduled to be completed by 2018, is financed by the United States, Great Britain, the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, and the Islamic Development Bank. Pakistan to receive additional $510 million from IMF The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Thursday that it is providing an additional $510 million in aid to Pakistan as part of the country’s three-year, $6.7 billion financial assistance program (Dawn). According to Harald Finger, the IMF mission chief for Pakistan, “After productive discussions, the mission and the Pakistani authorities have reached staff- level agreement on the completion of the eleventh review under the EFF arrangement.” The money will not be officially provided until the deal is approved by the IMF’s management and executive board. The IMF statement cited Pakistan’s strong economic growth, with projected GDP growth of 4.5 percent in FY 2015/16 and 4.7 percent in FY 2016/17. The Comeback Kid Returns “Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Exiled Afghan Insurgent, Nears a Comeback,” by Mujib Mashal Jawad Sukhanyar (NYT) “The Taliban resurge in Afghanistan – and ISIS also moves in,” by Hari Sreenivasan and Jennifer Glasse (PBS) Afghanistan & China Partnership
Afghan Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abudllah will visit China from Sunday, May 15 through Wednesday, May 18 (Xinhua). According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang, this is Abdullah’s first official visit to China since taking office. Speaking of the visit, Lu said, “We hope the visit will further advance bilateral cooperation in areas of economy and trade, security, culture, international and regional affairs, and push China-Afghanistan strategic partnership of cooperation to a higher level.” China and Afghanistan share a border via the Wakhan Corridor. In Libya, which has been in a state of civil war for years, ISIS operates in what Pentagon officials call a “permissive environment.” But if the political stalemate should end, the U.S. would be more likely to up its anti-ISIS efforts in the country, Pentagon and intelligence officials said. – Defense One Islamic State militants staged attacks on Thursday between their Libyan stronghold of Sirte and the city of Misrata, killing five people, officials said. - Reuters Libya may be forced to cut oil production within days if a stand-off between eastern and western factions that has prevented loadings at the Marsa al-Hariga port continues, an official from oil firm NOC in Tripoli told Reuters on Thursday. - Reuters Josh Rogin and Eli Lake report: Abdul Fattah el-Sisi has been trampling human rights, the rule of law and freedom of the press since he became Egypt's president two years ago. For almost as long, the international community has called on him to stop. But his critics in Washington have recently changed their tune. – Bloomberg View From east and west, the forces of Libya's rival powers are each moving on the city of Sirte, vowing to free it from the hold of the Islamic State group. The danger is they could very well fight each other as well. – Associated Press
“How can al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula be defeated?” (Elisabeth Kendall, Monkey Cage) “During my most recent research trip to eastern Yemen late last year, I was struck by a meeting I had with three leading community members from Mukalla, which had been overrun by AQAP since April 2015. Long into the night I listened to their litany of complaints against AQAP, linked to the new restrictions afflicting their familiar daily routines. When I suggested continuing our discussion the next day, one of them was quick to apologize; he had to rush to a meeting with AQAP commanders. He shrugged off this seeming contradiction by explaining that there was a water problem in his village, and AQAP had promised to fix it. His companion chipped in with news of a long-standing land dispute that AQAP was helping to settle. Despite popular dislike of the organization, even its detractors grudgingly acknowledged that AQAP was approachable, had some sense of justice and got things done. In the West, counterterrorism is framed in terms of security: how to combat (read ‘kill’) militant jihadist fighters. But the real problem is not so much the jihadists, ready and even eager to die for their cause. It is AQAP’s notable ability to create safe havens in which extremism can flourish by establishing relationships among populations that rarely share their vision but nevertheless tolerate them. These populations abide AQAP because the terror group helps to support those communities.” AQAP Withdraws from More Yemeni Cities Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula began withdrawing its forces from the cities of Jaar and Zinjibar yesterday as part of an agreement mediated by local tribal groups. Some fighters were seen abandoning their weapons outside of the cities, which have been occupied since last year and were previously captured by the group in 2011-2012. AQAP also withdrew from the port city of Mukalla last month and has come under increasing pressure from a military coalition of local forces and Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates, intervening in the country. The U.S. Defense Department confirmed yesterday that it is providing support to counterterrorism operations in Yemen, including intelligence, naval support, and advising from Special Operations Forces at a command center. The Pentagon is providing military support, intelligence, ships and special operations forces to help in the ongoing operations against al-Qaida militants in Yemen, U.S. officials said Thursday. – Associated Press Frank Wisner writes: Our nation’s interests lie in supporting Saudi leaders as they pursue this course, not looking for opportunities to embarrass them. This may be a tall order in the hyperventilating political season in which we find ourselves, but it is essential that our elected leaders—and those who aspire to become our leaders—resist the temptation to score short-term political points at the expense of our long-term global interests. – The National Interest The Pentagon has placed a small number of U.S. advisors on the ground in Yemen to support Arab forces battling al-Qaeda, military officials said on Friday, signaling a new American role in that country’s multi-sided civil war. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint
Former CIA Pakistan bureau chief possibly poisoned by ISI after bin Laden raid
Mark Kelton, the former CIA bureau chief in Pakistan, and the agency believe he may have been poisoned by Pakistani’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) after the 2011 bin Laden raid (Post). Two months after the May 2011 raid, Kelton left the country after becoming violently ill, and while the CIA acknowledges that they have no proof Kelton was poisoned, the cause of the severe illness remains unknown. The CIA has not conducted a full investigation into Kelton’s claims, but viewed them seriously enough to search its intelligence files for any leads. At the time, relations between Kelton and then-ISI chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha were strained, with Pasha refusing to speak to Kelton and referring to him as “the cadaver.” Commenting on the allegations, a Pakistani embassy spokesman, Nadeem Hotiana, said, “Obviously the story is fictional, not worthy of comment. We reject the insinuations implied in the allegations.” Taliban and al Qaeda working more closely together in Afghanistan
Brig. Gen. Charles Cleveland, a spokesman for the U.S-NATO coalition in Afghanistan, acknowledged on Thursday the expanded collaboration in Afghanistan between al Qaeda and the Taliban after the former’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, endorsed Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, the Taliban’s leader, last fall (Post, RFE/RL). Al Qaeda, according to Brig. Gen. Cleveland, has between 100 to 300 fighters in Afghanistan. He said, “…because we think that al Qaeda is...beginning to work more with Taliban, they can present a bit of an accelerant for the Taliban. They can provide capabilities and skills and those types of things.” Cleveland did not specify the skills provided, but in the past al Qaeda has supplied bomb-makers and suicide bombers to allied groups. Assessing the Islamic State’s (IS) presence in Afghanistan, Cleveland estimates there are roughly 1,500 IS fighters in the country – a number that he believes has decreased due to more U.S. air strikes. |
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