Al Qaeda and the Taliban rule Afghanistan, 16 years later. @sebastiangorka, Deputy Assistant to the President.
Al-Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan has not occurred in a vacuum. It has maintained its strength in the country since the U.S. invasion, launched a new branch, AQIS, and established training camps with the help and support of the Taliban. When Generals Campbell and Buchanan discussed al-Qaeda in the wake of the Shorabak raid, they described the group as resurgent. Campbell described the Taliban-al-Qaeda relationship as a “renewed partnership,” while Buchanan said it “has since ‘grown stronger.’” But like the estimate that al-Qaeda maintained a small cadre of 50 to 100 operatives in Afghanistan between 2010 and 2016, the idea that the Taliban and al-Qaeda have only recently reinvigorated their relationship is incorrect. Al-Qaeda would not have been able to maintain a large cadre of fighters and leaders inside Afghanistan, conduct operations in 25 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, establish training camps, and relocate high-level leaders from Pakistan’s tribal areas to Afghanistan without the Taliban’s long-term support. Al-Qaeda has remained loyal to the Taliban’s leader, which it describes as the Amir al- Mumineen, or the “Commander of the Faithful,” since the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001. Osama bin Laden maintained his oath of allegiance to Mullah Omar, the Taliban’s founder and first emir. When bin Laden died, Ayman al-Zawahiri renewed that oath. And when Mullah Omar’s death was announced in 2015, Zawahiri swore bayat (an oath of allegiance) to Mullah Mansour, the Taliban’s new leader. Mansour publicly accepted Zawahiri’s oath. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/04/afghanistans-terrorist-resurgence-al-qaeda-isis-and-beyond.php http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/04/27/house-panel-expert-u-s-losing-in-afghanistan-as-al-qaeda-grows-stronger-with-taliban-resurgence/ Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of Afghanistan's most notorious warlords and a former prime minister, has returned to the capital, Kabul, months after signing a peace deal with the government. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
United States and allied aircraft will be banned from flying over much of Syria as part of a deal struck by Iran, Russia and Turkey to foster a cease-fire in the Syrian war, a senior Russian diplomat said Friday. But a State Department spokesman later said that the agreement, which the United States did not sign, does not “preclude anyone from going after terrorists wherever they may be in Syria.” The spokesman, Edgar Vasquez, said Russian officials’ interpretation of their own agreement “makes no sense.” – New York Times Russia, Turkey, Iran agree to create Syria safe zonesBashar al-Assad’s allies Russia and Iran and rebel-backer Turkey agreed Thursday to create four safe zones in Syria during the latest round of cease-fire talks in Astana, Kazakhstan. The three countries would be responsible for preventing clashes between Syrian government forces and the armed opposition by operating security buffers, checkpoints and observation posts. The Syrian regime supports the deal, but Osama Abu Zaid, representing the opposition delegation, said it threatens the integrity of Syria’s territory. The Donald Trump administration cautiously welcomed the deal but expressed reservations about Tehran’s role. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said the United States hoped the deal would lead to “a de-escalation of violence” in Syria, while accusing Iran of being behind much of that violence. Russia and Turkey map out Syria safe zones solution In his second visit to Russia this year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the creation of safe zones in Syria with President Vladimir Putin and the gradual lifting of sanctions imposed after Turkey shot down a Russian jet in 2015. Putin wants to create four buffer zones patrolled by troops from Russia, Turkey and Iran, but the opposition to Bashar al-Assad is skeptical. Speaking to journalists on his way back from Sochi, Erdogan said he hoped the creation of “de-escalation zones” in five Syrian regions, including Idlib, would solve 50% of the conflict in Syria. On his way back from the meeting, Erdogan asserted that Putin opposed the creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Syria, an outcome Turkey is determined to avoid. Erdogan said he told Putin about his concerns regarding photos of Russian soldiers mingling with the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units, which Turkey considers terrorists, and Putin said he would look into it.
Syrian army advances in Hama despite de-escalation dealSyrian government forces took control of the village of al-Zalakiyat village north of Hama on Sunday amid heavy bombardment just days after a deal brokered by regime allies Russia and Iran and rebel-backer Turkey to reduce fighting. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 11 regime fighters died in the assault, while 14 rebels were reported killed before opposition fighters withdrew from the village.
Meanwhile, negotiations began Sunday regarding the evacuation of rebels and their families from the Barzeh and Qabun districts of Damascus, a Syrian military source said. If the deal goes through, it will be the first time rebels are evacuated from the capital since war broke out in 2011. Russia seeks UN vote on Syria safe zones proposalRussia has introduced a draft UN Security Council resolution in support of the proposal to create four “de-escalation” zones in Syria, Russian diplomats said Sunday. The agreement was hammered out last week with Turkey and Iran during cease-fire talks in Astana, Kazakhstan. Voting could take place as early as today or Tuesday. History of U.S.-Iran Relations Points to Bad End Game
By Peter Huessy, RealClearDefense: “One could argue that given the relative threats from Iran, stopping its pursuit of nuclear weapons should be of the highest priority. However, the American effort to curtail the Iran nuke program (but not its missiles or terrorist support or human rights atrocities) went through several phases not all of which were helpful to America’s security. Thus concentrating largely on that objective was not necessarily beneficial to the U.S. as many have claimed.” In a sports arena festooned with national flags, Algeria's ruling FLN party pumped up supporters at one final weekend rally before Thursday's parliamentary election with Liberation-era songs and screenings of old speeches by its veteran leader, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. - Reuters Algeria holds parliamentary elections today amid widespread voter apathy and the opposition’s call for a boycott. The vote is the first since Algeria gave more power to its legislative branch last year in a bid to alleviate popular anger at the country’s sclerotic political system and tumbling economy. Some 23 million voters will be choosing from 12,000 candidates to represent them in the 462-seat People's National Assembly.
The National Liberation Front, which has dominated the country’s politics since independence from France in 1962, and its coalition ally the National Rally for Democracy, hold the majority of seats in Algeria’s two houses. They are expected to win against opposition parties that are divided over whether to even participate in the election. The distinctive green and gold banner of the Syrian Kurdish militia known as the YPG flew alongside the Stars and Stripes this week, as U.S. troops and Kurdish paramilitaries took up positions in northern Syria’s enclave of Rojava. The combination marked a dramatic show of solidarity by the Pentagon for the Kurdish force, amid Turkish airstrikes targeting those U.S.-backed forces there. – Washington Times
Saudi Arabia’s powerful deputy crown prince slammed the door Tuesday on the prospect of dialogue with Iran, the kingdom’s regional rival, accusing it of following an “extremist ideology” and seeking to take over the Muslim world. – New York Times
America’s Uneasy Choices In Afghanistan By Ehsan M. Ahrari, YaleGlobal: “Starting wars is easy, but bringing them to a successful close, ensuring a sustained peace, is not. The war in in Afghanistan is in its 16th year with no end in sight. “The growing presence of the so-called Afghan-Pakistani Daesh franchise – also known as the Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISKP – is a source of worry, using territory as a base to terrorize Afghanistan and conduct terrorist operations inside Pakistan,” explains author Ehsan M. Ahrari.” ndia accused Pakistani forces on Monday of killing two Indian soldiers — and mutilating their bodies — near the de facto border in the Kashmir region, and has vowed to retaliate. – Financial Times Pakistan has extended by three months the house arrest of Hafiz Saeed, accused by the United States of masterminding the 2008 attacks on the Indian financial capital Mumbai that killed 166 people, a Pakistani official said on Monday. - Reuters Eli Lake reports: President Donald Trump will soon have to decide what to do about Afghanistan. After weeks of wrangling inside his national security cabinet, top officials on Friday agreed on the broad outlines of a strategy to prosecute America's longest war. The interventionists prevailed. – Bloomberg View A suicide bomber struck a U.S. military convoy as it traveled through central Kabul on Wednesday, killing eight Afghan civilians and wounding at least 29 others, including three American troops, Afghan officials and the U.S. military said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Kashefi is one of several dozen women serving in an elite Afghan police force, the Crisis Response Unit, that increasingly finds itself at the center of the country’s long war with Taliban militants. But Kashefi doesn’t just battle the Taliban. She is also up against Afghan traditions, which relegate women to domestic roles and near-invisibility in the body-length garment known as the burqa. – Los Angeles Times Plans are in motion to bring residents of the restive region along Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan under the umbrella of the central government by ending the old legal system, offering voting rights and greater government representation, and raising living standards. The inclusive approach, in theory, will end FATA's isolation and help lure locals away from joining the various militant groups that thrive there. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Ilan Berman writes: Qatari largesse brings with it a great deal of strategic leverage, and many have held out hope that Doha might, over time, convince Hamas to moderate. But Qatar’s rulers don’t seem interested in doing anything of the sort. Rather, they have bankrolled Hamas’s radical vision for years, allowing it to survive—and even to thrive—amid significant adversity. And now, they have set the stage for the group to acquire nothing short of a new political lease on life. – The National Interest
China's Role in Post-Hegemonic Middle East
By John Calabrese, RealClearWorld: “For more than a decade, the Middle East and North Africa region has experienced a level of violence and instability that is unprecedented in its modern history -- a turbulence that shows no sign of abating. During this period, the long-term sustainability of the U.S. role as security guarantor has increasingly been called into question, both in the United States and within the region. Meanwhile, China’s investments in the Middle East have grown, as has its economic, diplomatic, and security footprint. Within this context, are there any indications that the United States and China already are, or inevitably will become, strategic rivals in the Middle East?"
Israel Independence Day and the failure of Abbas in Washington. Malcolm Hoenlein, @conf_of_pres.
As the Palestine Liberation Organization’s (PLO) leader, Abbas has twice before been presented far-reaching peace proposals—once by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in 2008, and a second time by President Obama at the White House in March 2014. In both instances, Abbas did not reject the offers. Nor did he say yes. Instead, he did not relate to them, thereby leaving the question lingering to this day for many outside observers as to whether the 82-year old president is too constrained to provide yes for an answer. It is not that Abbas has failed to demonstrate political courage in his life-long career rising through the ranks of the PLO. He was among the vanguard of those Palestinians committed to non-violence in the nationalist struggle with Israel. Advocating peaceful reconciliation with Israel was politically risky and personally dangerous. He continues to boost security coordination with Israel, despite domestic pressure to abandon these efforts. Yet since becoming the leader of the Fatah party, the PLO, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) all at once, he has also projected an image of passivity and rigidity within negotiations with Israel. This is not to exonerate the role Israel plays on the other side of the table or others facilitating those talks. But it does raise questions about Palestinian limitations. Today, Abbas faces a paradox: The only way he can realize his avowed goal of ending the conflict and establishing a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital is through negotiations with Israel. Yet he is deeply constrained from negotiating concessions necessary to realize these goals. http://blogs.cfr.org/danin/2017/05/01/palestinian-president-abbas-washington-challenge/
Mattis & McMaster vs the Taliban & What is to be done? @jedbabbin @washingtontimes
Mr. Mattis and Mr. McMaster are experienced battlefield generals. Mr. McMaster, an Army general who gained fame in the Tal Afar campaign in Iraq, is a veteran nation-builder. He said at the time that he wanted not only to kill terrorists, but also win over civilians so that they would reject the terrorists when the Americans left. That, to say the least, didn’t succeed. On returning from his trip to Afghanistan, Mr. McMaster said the Taliban knew we were reducing our efforts in Afghanistan so, he said, “Our enemy sensed that and they have redoubled their efforts, and it’s time for us, alongside our Afghan partners, to respond.” That sounds much like what we heard for almost a decade from Army leaders in Iraq. When we pulled out of Iraq, Shiite militias turned most of the country into an Iranian satrapy. And ISIS arose. Mr. Mattis arrived just a few days after the April 24 Taliban attack. Through his Marine eyes, he may see things a bit differently than Mr. McMaster did. Mr. Mattis is not a nation-builder. McMaster insists that there is no causal relationship between Islam and terrorism. Mr. Mattis understands that to defeat enemies such as the Taliban, their ideology must also be defeated. No peace can be negotiated while the Taliban’s ideology remains intact. Mr. Mattis knows that since the advent of Islam, its ideology has had such a strong grip on Afghanistan’s tribal society that two British invasions, in 1839 and 1878, both ended in bloody retreats. He will remember the Soviets’ 1979-1989 invasion which, with the help of CIA arms, also ended when the Soviets withdrew defeated. Mr. Mattis and Mr. McMaster know that the Russians are supplying the Taliban with small arms. So far, no heavier weapons — such as shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles — have appeared on the battlefield. But there’s no reason that the Russians won’t supply the Taliban with such weapons. They obviously want to impose on us the same defeat they suffered at the hands of the Taliban’s predecessors. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/30/afghanistan-fight-rolls-on-despite-obama-pullout/
Afghanistan’s security forces are experiencing “shockingly high” casualties and conflict has displaced record numbers of civilians, a U.S. government watchdog said in a report Sunday on the grim challenge facing the country as it confronts the Taliban and other insurgencies with drastically reduced support from the United States and other NATO partners. – Washington Post
Fugitive warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar on Saturday made his first public appearance in Afghanistan after nearly two decades underground, calling on Taliban insurgents to “join the peace caravan and stop this pointless holy war.” He also urged all political parties to reconcile and seek change “without bloodshed.” – Washington Post So on Saturday, the Marines returned to Helmand with a force of 300; roughly half of them had previously served in the province…The Marines’ new mission is a difficult one: to assist and train Afghan soldiers and police to defend the provincial capital. The Taliban control seven of the province’s 14 districts and are encroaching on five others. The government fully controls just two, local officials say. – New York Times Two American soldiers who were killed in Afghanistan during a raid Wednesday night may have been struck by so-called friendly fire, the Pentagon said. – New York Times The Trump administration is evaluating plans to send as many as 5,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, where America's longest war has hit a stalemate and local security forces have become overwhelmed by rising violence. – Military Times NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the Western military alliance is close to making a decision on whether to increase its troop numbers in Afghanistan to help with the battle against Islamist insurgents. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Under pressure from Pakistan’s military, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ousted two of his top officials on Saturday in a continuing standoff over leaks to the news media of a meeting at which civilian leaders confronted the military over its alleged reluctance to halt Islamist groups in the country. – New York Times
Since Sharif’s narrow escape from legal disqualification April 20, by a split 3-to-2 court panel, opponents and critics have demanded that he resign, saying the three-time premier had lost his moral authority to lead the Muslim-majority nation of nearly 200 million. – Washington Post In India’s restive Kashmir territory, the weapon of choice among separatist youths targeting Indian security forces is a stone — or a brick, if they can get one…Large numbers of girls in headscarves and school uniforms have been joining male protesters for the first time in recent memory. – Washington Post ISRAEL, RUSSIA: Russia Risks a Showdown With Israel Over Hezbollah in Syria
By Jonathan Schanzer, Newsweek: “Russia’s allies are again provoking the Israelis, who may ultimately see little choice but to strike first. The ensuing war, Israel warns, could, like the Six Day War in 1967, fundamentally change the region.” |
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