[General Petraeus] defended the use of U.S. military forces abroad, saying that when the United States does not get involved in ungoverned spaces in the Middle East, northern Africa or southwest Asia, Islamist extremists will. The effects of those militant operations will spill into other countries, Petraeus said, citing the “veritable geopolitical Chernobyl” in Syria that has caused a “tsunami of refugees” to flee to European countries. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint
Brookings Institution senior fellow Shadi Hamid argues in a recently released book that modern political and military actions involving Islam and Islamic countries are complicated by a general misunderstanding of the religion – and in particular the intertwined nature of state and religion. – USNI News Pakistani and Afghan forces exchanged heavy gunfire on Sunday and Monday in an unusually serious escalation of tensions at the border, leaving at least 13 people wounded on the Pakistani side and killing at least one Afghan police officer, according to the police and military officials in both countries. – New York Times
An influential group of Pakistani clerics has issued a fatwa against honor killings after a series of attacks on women that have provoked national outrage. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty India's Ministry of Defence (MoD) has asked the Indian Air Force (IAF) to modernize its aging Russian Pechora air defense systems by using only domestic defense companies in accordance with the "Make in India" policy. – Defense News A Pakistani military officer died on Tuesday after being shot by Afghan forces during a clash at the Torkham border, Pakistan's military said, a development likely to ratchet up tension between the neighbors who sources said were beefing up troop numbers on either side. - Reuters Pakistan is considering buying used F-16 fighter jets from Jordan, media reported on Tuesday, after a plan to buy eight of the aircraft from the United States fell through because of the refusal of the U.S. Congress to finance the deal. - Reuters Police in Bangladesh have arrested at least 119 militants as part of a crackdown on Islamists after a wave of deadly attacks on members of minority groups and liberal activists, an officer said on Monday. - Reuters The United States should limit its military mission in Afghanistan to supporting local forces and should intensify pressure on Pakistan to jump-start peace talks with the Taliban, the country’s former president said. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint
Afghanistan’s ambassador to the United States said Monday that Americans should not think of the conflict in Afghanistan as “yesterday’s war,” citing persistent attacks by the Taliban, ISIS affiliates, and other terror groups in the region – Washington Free Beacon For more than a decade, from 2001 to 2012, Afghanistan posted an average annual growth rate of 9 percent. But that fast growth rate slowed to just 1.5 percent in 2015. The precipitous drop is the direct result of the withdrawal of foreign troops, whose presence injected billions of dollars into an economy whose own economic motors of agriculture and manufacturing still barely turn. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty The United States is asking its allies helping with security in Afghanistan to maintain funding for Afghan forces at a cost of nearly $5 billion a year until at least 2020, a top U.S. military commander said on Monday. - Reuters A series of kidnappings and murders on Afghanistan's highways has some officials and travelers questioning the NATO-backed strategy that reduced security check posts protecting roads in order to free up police and soldiers to go after the Taliban. - Reuters Max Boot writes: Barack Obama has been president for more than seven years now. But he still doesn’t seem to have learned the most elementary lesson of military command—namely that war is a test of wills and the side with the superior will usually (although not always) prevails. - Commentary The Balkan enclave [of Albania], nestled between the shimmering Adriatic and the high peaks of the Dinaric Alps, has a majority-Muslim population but a centuries-old tradition of religious tolerance and moderation. Yet even here, 1,200 miles from the fighting in Syria, the Islamic State has found a small but devoted following. – Washington Post
Much of the murkiness surrounding the battle to expel ISIS from Fallujah, which lies 64 kilometers to the west of Baghdad and has long been a cynosure of the Sunni insurgency, has to do with who, exactly, is doing the fighting. And that’s a question that touches on Iraq’s ever-parlous sectarianism. – The Daily Beast When considering the future U.S. relations with Pakistan it’s important not to deal with Islamabad exclusively “through the lens of Afghanistan,” a Senate Armed Services Committee staffer said Thursday. – USNI News As the United States braces for an especially bloody summer fighting season in Afghanistan, President Obama inched closer this week to allowing American forces to once again directly battle the Taliban, loosening restrictions on airstrikes and on ground combat in support of Afghan forces, the administration said on Friday. – New York Times
Now, the Taliban are active on a variety of media platforms. They recently began releasing audio files with songs and news updates, and launched a smartphone app for their Voice of Jihad website, available in multiple languages. Their videos, once grainy, are sleek and widely shared. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) U.S. generals, who for months have been arguing in favor of employing more air power in Afghanistan to counter the Taliban’s advances, are finally getting their wish. – Military Times U.S. President Barack Obama may not decide before a NATO summit next month whether to alter plans to nearly halve America's forces in Afghanistan, a diplomat and a U.S. official said - Reuters A series of kidnappings and murders on Afghanistan's highways has some officials and travelers questioning the NATO-backed strategy that reduced security check posts protecting roads in order to free up police and soldiers to go after the Taliban. - Reuters Pakistani and Afghan soldiers clashed overnight at the main border crossing at the end of the Khyber Pass, officials said on Monday, with at least one killed and several wounded, further straining relations between the militancy-plagued neighbors. - Reuters Forces aligned with Libya’s internationally backed unity government closed in on the center of the Islamic State stronghold of Sirte over the weekend, giving a boost to an administration struggling to unite the fractured nation. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Libyan forces laying siege to Isis militants in Sirte have appealed to western governments to provide weapons to help secure victory over the group after making a series of quick advances over the weekend. – Financial Times Egypt's parliament approved on Sunday the appointment of a former prosecutor as the new anti-corruption chief, state news agency MENA said, less than a week after his predecessor went on trial accused of making up lies about the scale of the problem. - Reuters Egypt: Independence of the Regulatory State
“Three reasons why attacking Egypt’s top auditor is bad news” (Marwa Fatafta, Transparency International) “The character assassination and prosecution of the head of Egypt’s strongest oversight body is a dangerous step for three reasons. First, it shows yet again that the Egyptian government has no real political will to fight corruption despite previous promises. They should. Egyptian citizens are frustrated with the government’s lack of serious effort to stop the widespread corruption in the country. In a recent survey released in May this year, 58 per cent of Egyptians believe that the government is performing badly on this front. Second, such move deeply undermines the independence of Egypt’s regulatory bodies. The Central Audit Organisation is the strongest watchdog institution in the country and scored the highest among 13 pillars of society studied in Transparency International’s National Integrity System report. The report looked at the strengths and weaknesses of Egypt’s institutions. The strength of the Central Audit Organisation stems from its independence, which is enshrined in the Egyptian constitution. The removal of its head by presidential degree is also an explicit infringement of the constitution. It weakens the organisation’s independence and credibility, and hinders its key function to detect and report corruption. Third, targeting Geneina signals an escalation of a wider suppressive crackdown on Egyptian civil society, activists and concerned citizens. By prosecuting the country’s top anti-corruption fighter for merely doing his job, the Egyptian government is reinforcing its power to limit transparency or accountability to its citizens.” syria: russian proxies play chess, u.s. proxies play tic-tack-toe, leon aron on u.s. ineptitude6/13/2016 Leon Aron writes: Russia is playing chess in Syria. To say that the United States is playing checkers would be to grossly overestimate the intellectual, moral, and military commitment. Tic-tac-toe is about right. – Foreign Policy Hostey, a recruiter for the militants, was targeted by a U.S. military campaign that has singled out and killed more than 120 Islamic State leaders, commanders, propagandists, recruiters and other so-called high-value individuals so far this year, officials said. The leadership attacks have picked up recently due to intelligence collected by special-operations teams on night raids, from captured militants and from intercepts of emails, cellphones and other communications. – Los Angeles Times
The Islamic State has had more than two years to barricade itself into Fallujah, the city west of Baghdad that was the first in the country to fall to the militant group. After launching an offensive for the city last month, Iraqi special forces are now within two miles of the city’s center, but extensive tunnel networks used by the militants and deadly roadside bombs are slowing their progress. – Washington Post
Many observers believe Baiji and its refinery, 125 miles north of the capital, Baghdad, will never be rebuilt, destined to remain relics of a countrywide economic arrangement that no longer holds, and a symbol of the government’s ability to do little more in some places than to try to keep away insurgents. – Los Angeles Times American officials call them the “Tikrit rules” — an informal agreement that Iranian-backed Shiite militias won’t enter Sunni cities reclaimed from the Islamic State for fear of sparking new sectarian tensions there. But the rules are now facing a serious test in Fallujah, where Iraqi forces — backed by an array of armed Shiite groups — are gearing up to try to reconquer the city from the Islamic State. – Foreign Policy Terrorist groups are using the humanitarian situation in Fallujah to fundraise, according to a senior official in Saudi Arabia. – The Hill Iraqi troops advanced against Islamic State south of Mosul on Sunday as the U.S.-led coalition intensifies its campaign against the militants on multiple fronts across their self-proclaimed caliphate. - Reuters The Iraqi army said on Sunday it had secured the first safe exit route for civilians to leave Islamic State's besieged stronghold Falluja, and a Norwegian aid group said thousands of people had already used it to flee in the first day it was open. - Reuters The [Bangladesh] killings were organized by two militant Islamic groups that have gathered volunteers and recruits, trained them and eventually seeded them into cells run by a commander, Mr. Islam said. They have tried to pick their targets with care, with the aim of gaining support from the public, he said, and trained teams of killers. Their goal was to convert Bangladesh’s mixed secular and religious culture to an Islamist one, the chief investigator said. The Bangladeshi authorities say that they now believe they have identified the top leadership of the two groups they say are responsible, and that they are preparing to round them up. – New York Times Bangladesh police have shot dead five suspected members of a banned group in three days, including one on Wednesday, as security forces step up the hunt for Islamist militants behind a series of attacks in the majority-Muslim nation. - Reuters
Waves of Democratization, Waves of Disillusionment: The Arab Spring in Historical Perspective” (Charles Kurzman, Project on Middle East Political Science) “Whiggish social science makes democratic reversals all the more unexpected and disappointing for us academic observers. If democracy is the fruit of long-standing social processes -- the spread of education, global communication, rising incomes and networks of trade -- then we expect political institutions to evolve with the same slow pace of change, or perhaps to catch up to the “predicted” level of democracy in a burst of surface tension. This form of causal analysis trips over the fundamental mismatch between generally slow-moving socioeconomic factors and the rapid ricochets of democratic trajectories. The lesson I propose is that our roller-coaster emotions at the coming of the Arab Spring were not just the product of an ideological commitment -- the belief that Arabs could have democracy too -- but also the product of a theoretical commitment -- the belief that political outcomes have long-term or at least medium-term causes. That theoretical commitment led many observers to identify the causes of the uprisings immediately after they occurred, and to consider it a failure that they had not foreseen them . In the years since, they have had to walk back some of those explanations, as the dependent variable has shifted. An older, alternative approach to democratization is to take the pessimistic view that experiments in popular governance generally fail.” “From Political Islam to Muslim Democracy” (Sarah J. Feuer, Foreign Affairs) “In the end, the extent to which the Ennahda congress changes Tunisian politics may depend on the extent to which Ennahda itself changes. Analogies have been drawn to Turkey’s experience in the early 2000s, when the Islamist AKP recast itself as a socially conservative party and highlighted its economic platform in an effort to broaden its support base. Ennahda may have the AKP in mind, but the more relevant model today is arguably Morocco, where an Islamist party with Brotherhood roots legislates in parliament and even occupies the prime ministry but leaves overtly religious activities to its sister organization in civil society. Whether Ennahda changes its internal structures; where the party comes down on divisive legislation, such as the regulation of problematic imams or the recent proposal to remove the religious imprint on the country’s inheritance laws; and the degree to which the party campaigns on religiously oriented themes in the upcoming election cycles will give observers a clearer picture of Ennahda’s longer-term plans and more ammunition for the debate about the continued evolution of political Islam in Tunisia and in the wider Middle East.” “Egypt’s Mainland Terrorism Landscape” (Allison McManus and Jake Greene, Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy)
“On May 8, four men carried out a brutal mass shooting, emptying their magazines into an adjacent car as they drove along the Nile in Helwan, a district in Cairo. Eight policemen were killed during the attack, which was claimed by both the Islamic State in Egypt (that is, the branch of the global organization that operates in mainland Egypt, rather than Sinai) and a lesser-known group, the Popular Resistance Movement. Our long-term research shows that violence like this has been thriving in mainland Egypt for years. While the insurgency in the restive North Sinai has garnered a great deal of concern, actors in the mainland (that is, outside of Sinai) have evolved since then-Defense Minister Abdel-Fattah El Sisi asked for a popular mandate to counter terrorism in July 2013, and those actors continue to carry out regular attacks across the country. These actors are neither monolithic nor immutable; violence has seen two distinct phases, and is possibly now entering a third. While all three phases have seen a mix of small attacks with improvised explosive devices (IEDs), shootings, and intermittent large-scale attacks, the actor landscape has shifted.”
Senior U.S. and Iraqi military leaders say foreign assistance since then has helped correct, at least temporarily, some of the Iraqi army’s weaknesses that allowed the city to fall: inadequate intelligence, logistical issues, corruption and poor leadership. But as Araji’s last days indicate, many of these problems remain chronic and threaten to undermine even the narrowly focused goals of the U.S. and allied training effort. – Washington Post The former governor of Iraq's northernmost province claims he has a workable plan for the recapture of Mosul from Islamic State with a combined force of Iraqi army, Kurdish peshmerga and 1,000 fighters within the city but loyal to him. – Washington Times Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi expects two victories from the battle underway in Falluja, an Islamic States stronghold near Baghdad. The first is over IS, the second over political rivals, including some backed by Iran. - Reuters Iraq’s current military offensive against the Islamic State in the city of Fallujah has sparked a flurry of new fundraising campaigns in Saudi Arabia. – Washington Post Eli Lake reports: One of the unexpected results of President Barack Obama's new opening to Iran is that U.S. taxpayers are now funding both sides of the Middle East's arms race. The U.S. is deliberately subsidizing defense spending for allies like Egypt and Israel. Now the U.S. is inadvertently paying for some of Iran's military expenditures as well. – Bloomberg View Islamic State militants have gunned down people trying to flee the Iraqi city of Fallujah even as pro-government forces have apparently committed beatings and torture during battles to retake the area, according to Human Rights Watch and Iraqi officials. – Washington Post Islamic State claimed a rare car bombing in the Iraqi Shiite holy city Karbala that killed 10 people and wounded 25 Tuesday, showing the extremist group retains its ability to strike populated areas despite recent battlefield defeats. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Eli Lake writes: Many Americans today wish the U.S. had never taken ownership of Iraq. But many also make the mistake of thinking that the U.S. signed that deed of purchase with the 2003 war. In fact the down payment was made with a haphazard operation to rescue half a million Kurds, and it began 25 years ago. – Bloomberg View Fallujah trouble. The Iraqi army’s assault on Fallujah has stalled. And the problems have less to do with any resistance Islamic State fighters are putting up than with infighting -- or lack of coordination -- among the disparate Iraqi army units and various militia groups. Overall, the “seven battalions of Iraqi special forces units have been unable to advance for two days,” Reuters correspondents on the ground report. Maj. Ahmed Na'im with the Anbar police force said that his men and the Iraqi federal police never coordinate operations or share intel. "They have their own plans and take their orders from their own people," he said.
Ousted. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has fired several key government officials, including the country’s intelligence chief Zuhair al-Gharbawi. It’s unclear why now and what comes next, but al-Gharbawi was appointed by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki Two U.S. citizens have been freed from a prison in the United Arab Emirates following their acquittal this week on charges that they supported militants fighting in Libya, their family said Friday. – Washington Post
Saudi Arabia's National Transformation Plan, a pivotal element of the "Vision 2030" reforms announced in April by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will be put before the cabinet for approval on Monday, a senior Saudi source told Reuters. - Reuters Saudi Arabia has rejected a United Nations report that criticized the military coalition it is leading in Yemen, saying it was based primarily on information supplied by its adversaries. - Reuters The U.S. military says it conducted four counterterrorism strikes against al-Qaida militants in Yemen in recent months, including one May 19 that killed four enemy combatants. – Associated Press The parties to over a year of civil war in Yemen have agreed to release all child prisoners they are holding, U.N. envoy to peace talks in Kuwait Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said on his official Twitter account on Monday. - Reuters Hundreds of civilians from Saqlawiya, Iraq, show evidence of torture sustained after being captured by Shia militias during the siege of Fallujah, and medical personnel in the area have reported receiving “broken” corpses. An exhausted and ill-equipped Iraqi Army faces daunting obstacles on the battlefield that will most likely delay for months a long-planned major offensive on the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul, American and allied officials say. – New York Times Iraqi soldiers are battling to drive the Islamic State out of Fallujah. But just beyond the edges of the flashpoint city are Shiite militias that many Iraqis fear could undermine the campaign against the radical group. – Washington Post Iraqi officials say government forces have discovered a mass grave containing the remains of around 400 people near Fallujah during their push to retake the city from the extremist Islamic State (IS) group. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Iraqi forces secured the southern edge of the Islamic State group stronghold of Fallujah on Sunday, two weeks after the launch of an operation to recapture the city, the Iraqi special forces commander overseeing the operation said. – Associated Press An international aid organization says the Islamic State group is targeting civilians and shooting them as they try to flee the fighting between Iraqi government forces and IS militants in Fallujah, west of Baghdad. – Associated Press The leader of the largest Iraqi Shi'ite paramilitary group has criticized a lack of "precise planning" in war operations to capture Falluja, the stronghold of Islamic State near Baghdad. - Reuters Peter Feaver writes: The gruesome fight to retake Fallujah and Mosul is a painful reminder that a robust policy debate requires a prudent assessment of all of the relevant costs: the costs of action and the costs of inaction. – Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government Fallujah. Shiite militias want in on the fight for Fallujah, and things are getting tense. The Iraqi army’s assault on the city has stalled, and head of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization, Hadi al-Amiri, insisted over the weekend, “no one can stop us from going there.” Amiri gave civilians in the Islamic State-held city 10 days to flee before he said his men would go in. He also criticized American advice that has prioritized the eventual assault on the Islamic State-held city of Mosul in the north, which also appears to be stalled. The Iraqi army has been struggling to fix its broken equipment and sustain troops in the field without massive amounts of American planning, and help. The Islamic State is tearing itself apart on a mole hunt in search of spies tipping off the United States, according to the AP. The group killed at least 38 of its own members in an attempt to find the culprit (or culprits) who leaked information that may have lead to the death of Abu Hayjaa al-Tunsi, a senior commander in the jihadist group who was killed in a drone strike. Islamic State members have accused those killed of dropping small "chips" which can be used to mark locations for airstrikes and have tried to flush out spies by strategically leaking information about the movements of group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and checking to see if U.S. airstrikes align with the false information. An Iraqi Shi'ite militia leader accused government forces of "betrayal" as a split emerged between the Iranian-backed paramilitaries and the army over tactics for fighting Islamic State. - Reuters As Iraqi security forces tighten their grip on the outskirts of militant-held Fallujah allegations of human rights violations are surfacing on both sides of the operation. – Associated Press FPI Visting Scholar Mark Moyar writes: While the Fallujah offensive is probably too far gone for the United States to deprive Iran of the credit for its recapture, the United States does have an opportunity to regain some of its prestige by stepping up its assistance to the Iraqi government in securing Baghdad. Increasing that assistance, though, will require an additional commitment of U.S. troops. – Foreign Policy Initiative Defense Secretary Ashton Carter is growing impatient with the pace of U.S.-backed forces in Iraq and Syria in their efforts to retake Islamic State's strongholds in Mosul and Raqqa, urging American and coalition to intensify operations in both countries, U.S. military officials said Monday. – Washington Times
South Asian News A Hindu priest was hacked to death on Tuesday morning in southwestern Bangladesh, in what the police suspected was the latest in a series of killings by Islamist militants. – New York Times Amid media reports of a suspected cyberattack by a Pakistan-based group targeting the Indian government, some officials and analysts here are calling for progress on a proposed tri-service command on cybersecurity that is still pending approval by the Ministry of Defense. – Defense News Open Letter: For the United States to succeed in its mission in Afghanistan, it is essential that the Obama administration sustain the current level of U.S. forces there. Recognizing this, John Allen spearheaded a move to ask President Obama to do so, in the following open letter to which former leaders from the military and diplomatic corps signed on. – Brookings Institution Jeff Smith writes: The next U.S. president must learn from, and avoid repeating, the mistakes of their predecessors. My advice: trying to alter Islamabad’s cost-benefit calculation without imposing costs is a fool’s errand. Don’t be afraid to use calibrated pressure as a direct response to Pakistani transgressions. And don’t conclude that employing sticks will produce catastrophe before you’ve deployed your first. – The National Interest
Egypt’s former corruption auditor was charged with disturbing public order Thursday, his attorney said, the latest political maneuver against him since he alleged billions of dollars were siphoned from Egypt’s coffers through pervasive corruption. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi on Thursday called for negotiations among political parties, unions and independents to form a new unity government to help advance economic reforms in an attempt to calm social tensions. - Reuters Emily Estelle and Brenna Snyder write: ISIS’s rise in Algeria, supported by its rapid ascendancy in neighboring Libya and Tunisia, is driving AQIM to re-orient on Algeria. The contest between ISIS and AQIM for dominance in Algeria will result in an increase in small-scale attacks against Algerian security forces, especially in the north. This contest is unlikely to destabilize the Algerian regime in the near term. – AEI's Critical Threats
Suspected Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan killed 12 people after stopping their vehicles on a road in the east of the country, while 50 people were kidnapped in the north, the latest in a spate of highway attacks, officials said on Wednesday. - Reuters Blast walls mushroom in the Afghan capital after each massive attack or a big bombing, turning Kabul into a maze of concrete in a sad testimony that war still remains very much part of life here. – Associated Press Stephen Biddle writes: Various policy changes would help in Afghanistan, from increased U.S. air support for ANDSF forces to reduced ANDSF corruption and cronyism. But none will matter without a settlement, and the ubiquitous calendar deadlines that delay negotiations thus undermine everything else, too. The best thing Washington can do is to break its deadline habit now. – Defense One Generals, Diplomats urge Obama to freeze Afghanistan troop levels The newly appointed attorney general of Logar Province, just one hour into his job, was among seven people killed on Sunday when two Taliban insurgents attacked as his inauguration ceremony was ending, Afghan government officials said. – New York Times In a war-weary country steeped in cynicism, the re-energized Major Crimes Task Force of the national police seems plucked from central casting — down to the hard-boiled search for justice as it pursues the goal of rooting out government corruption in Afghanistan. – Washington Post An American journalist for NPR was killed on Sunday afternoon along with his Afghan translator in a Taliban ambush in southern Afghanistan, the Afghan military confirmed. NPR also confirmed their deaths on Sunday. – New York Times A planned drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan threatens to set back progress in the 15-year war and could allow militants to establish a greater foothold there, a group of 13 retired U.S. generals and senior diplomats have warned President Barack Obama. – Stars and Stripes Afghanistan's new A-29 Super Tucano ground attack aircraft have increasingly been used against Taliban targets, but only with unguided "dumb" bombs, an official said – Military.com The illegal mining of some of Afghanistan's most important minerals is funneling millions of dollars into the hands of insurgents and corrupt warlords, according to activists and officials who say the money is fuelling the conflict. - Reuters Interview: Sopko told the Washington Examiner during an interview in his Arlington office that he's optimistic that forcing a conversation on decades-old problems with how the U.S. government functions can bring about change. He also gave a preview of what's coming from his office over the next couple months. – Washington Examiner Five years after most senior al-Qaeda leaders are thought to have fled this port city, officials in Karachi worry that the organization is regrouping and finding new support here and in neighboring Afghanistan. They are especially concerned about the recruitment of potential foot soldiers for the next major terrorist attack. – Washington Post
Three attackers fatally shot and stabbed the wife of a police superintendent in southern Bangladesh on Sunday morning, the police said, the latest in a series of killings in which Islamist militants are the primary suspects. – New York Times “What to Expect from Jordan’s New Prime Minister” (Curtis R. Ryan, Monkey Cage)
“Unlike many other states in the region, Jordan had no revolution, coup d’état or civil war during the Arab Spring -- for which many Jordanians are thankful -- but did see a resurgence of activism and protest, especially in 2011 and 2012. Since then, many movements have toned down their own activism in the wake of political violence and turmoil across Jordan’s borders. The regime, meanwhile, initiated a series of top-down reforms meant to defuse tensions within the kingdom. Today, however, the gap between the regime and its diverse forms of opposition remains quite wide, over not only future trajectories but also what exactly happened during Jordan’s version of the Arab Spring. For many in the regime, Jordan serves as a model of a regime reforming itself, changing laws on parties and elections, revising the constitution and opening up the system carefully and gradually. For its critics and activist opponents, these measures are merely cosmetic, not meaningful shifts in Jordan’s palace-centered power structure. Recent changes to the constitution were regarded with alarm in many quarters of Jordanian politics as solidifying monarchical power, rather than pluralism, separation of powers, or checks and balances. In some respects, a new set of elections and a new post-election government might test just where Jordan is in this process.” Israel ended its last military operation in Gaza almost two years ago. But among some Israeli military officials, national security experts, and activists here, there is a palpable sense that another war is imminent, and that soon Hamas rockets will again be raining down on Israeli cities, prompting a crushing military response on the beleaguered, 25-mile long strip. – The Daily Beast
Editorial: Mr. Netanyahu may protest, with some reason, that Palestinian leaders have been uncompromising. But to stop the “internationalization” of the peace process, his government will have to show that it is willing to facilitate rather than foreclose a future Palestinian state. The partial settlement freeze Mr. Netanyahu discussed with Mr. Herzog would be a good start. – Washington Post Eli Lake reports: Sinam Mohamed does not look like the kind of woman who would have much influence over America's quiet war in Syria. But this soft-faced former English teacher has emerged as a crucial liaison between the Barack Obama administration and the largely Kurdish army fighting alongside U.S. special operators to encircle the Islamic State's capital at Raqqa. – Bloomberg View A shortage of intelligence assets is slowing down the air war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), according to the commander of the air campaign. – The Hill Analysis: On the whole, while ISIS’s geographic extent and financial means have shrunk, seizing and securing population centers under its control remains a daunting military task fraught with humanitarian risks and political complications. – USNI News A U.S.-backed force of Kurds and Arabs advanced toward an important Islamic State transit town in Syria on Wednesday, brushing aside Turkish opposition to the involvement of Kurds in operations to recapture the strategically vital area. – Washington Post Facing a United Nations commitment to start airdropping aid to civilians in rebel-held areas, the Syrian government eased some limits on humanitarian truck convoys on Wednesday and allowed one into a deprived Damascus suburb blockaded since 2012. – New York Times Although U.S. officials said they would continue to prepare for international food delivery by air, in case the access ends, the convoys to Darayya, and to the similarly besieged city of Moadamiya, appear to have averted the latest potential escalation in Syria’s years-long civil war. But they accomplished little to change a situation in which maintaining the status quo now seems the most optimistic outcome in the near term, and perhaps for the remainder of Barack Obama’s presidency. – Washington Post The potential seizure of the Syrian city of Manbij by U.S.-backed forces is only likely to set off a new battle for control—this time pitting Arabs against Kurds. – The Daily Beast A coalition of Syrian-American organizations blasted the United States, Russia, and the United Nations on Wednesday for failing to drop food into besieged areas of Syria following Damascus’s refusal to provide unfettered ground access to humanitarian aid organizations. – Foreign Policy The Turkish army killed five Islamic State militants in Syria in cross-border shelling, Turkish military sources said on Thursday, hitting positions west of where an offensive on militants was launched by Syrian fighters with U.S. backing. - Reuters Syria's main opposition has proposed a nationwide Ramadan truce, opposition delegate Basma Kodmani said on Wednesday. - Reuters The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have attacked armed groups opposed to President Bashar al-Assad and sometimes appear to have interests aligned with the Syrian government, a Syrian opposition negotiator said on Wednesday. - Reuters Eli Lake reports: In this turbulent election year, one constant theme for leaders of both major parties is a desire to build a global coalition against the Islamic State. Now a relatively unknown group is taking that message literally – Bloomberg View The Islamic State is showing signs of strain as it comes under new pressure from U.S.-backed Syrian rebels from the north and east in Syria, and Russian-backed Assad regime forces from the south and west. Defectors from the group are reportedly contacting foreign embassies to try to arrange safe passage from the group, including 150 Western fighters, though they face detention, interrogation, and likely criminal charges. Those that remain behind are subject to the increasing paranoia of the terrorist group’s leadership. The group recently executed 38 of its own members in a purge of suspected moles.
The U.S.-supported push by the mostly-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces has drawn Islamic State forces away from fronts in western Syria, allowing Russian-backed Assad regime forces to press their advantage and make gains in Raqqa province. The United States exchanges information with Russia to deconflict its operations in Syria, but U.S. officials deny coordinating directly on the offensive. "In terms of direct coordination of activities on the ground, that is not happening," Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook told reporters. "I know there have been discussions about changing that, but at this point, our position is the same." Iraqi army seen as ill-equipped to retake Mosul from ISIS Iraqi counterterrorism forces began advancing on Fallujah from the south this morning, but have encountered strong resistance from the Islamic State, which is defending the approach with snipers and mortar shelling. Iraqi forces had been holding their position outside the neighborhood of al-Shuhada since last Wednesday. The Fallujah offensive was criticized over the weekend by Shia militia leaders, who said it is poorly organized and accused the government of removing key forces for retaking the city and redeploying them to positions near Mosul. The Islamic State is executing civilians as they try to flee the city, including shooting people trying to swim across the Euphrates River to safety. Other routes out of Fallujah have been made too dangerous with the placement of defensive traps. Despite the dangers, approximately 18,000 people have fled to nearby camps in the past two weeks, the Norwegian Refugee Council. In another illustration of the Islamic State’s brutality, Iraqi forces discovered a mass grave containing approximately 400 bodies in Saqlawiya, northwest of Fallujah. The dead included members of the military and civilians, many of whom had been killed by being shot in the head. Another series of bomb attacks hit targets in Baghdad, killing at least 24 people today. Violence Between Rebels and Assad Regime Escalates in Aleppo Clashes between rebels and Assad regime forces intensified in Aleppo over the weekend. At least 32 people were killed in a series of nearly 50 airstrikes targeting rebel-held neighborhoods of the city yesterday. Rebels responded by increasing the shelling of government neighborhoods, killing approximately 20 people, according to state media reports. The violence continues an escalation that began last week. Assad regime forces are also pressing east, approaching the Islamic State-held Taqba Dam. The new offensive, occurring simultaneously with a push from U.S.-backed rebel forces from the west, is in effect creating a pincer movement trapping Islamic State forces in the Manbij pocket along the Turkey-Syria border. “The Law of Revenge: Deadly Hatred Among the Anti-IS Alliance in Iraq” (Christoph Reuter, Der Spiegel) “The roughly 30 Sunni villages surrounding Tuz Khurmatu are completely empty today. Where houses stood until just a few months ago, there are ruins today. Or, in the case of the village of Hweila, there is nothing left at all. It was bombed and flattened down to knee level, with just a bit of re-bar, some piles of rubble and bits of concrete pillars sticking out above the undulating grass. It is silent but for the sound of crickets and a few birds. Clumps of flowers reveal where yards once were. It is as though IS [the Islamic State] has set in motion a distinctly Iraqi machinery of barbarism, one which can also function just fine without the jihadist group. But the fact that the Hashd militias are now going after the Kurds in Tuz may have less to do with a carefully considered plan and more to do with internal rivalries within the groups. For roughly the last six months, the Iraqi state has been almost completely insolvent. The price of oil is too low to continue financing the state amid rampant corruption in the country. In Tuz Khurmatu, construction has stopped on a new hospital and school and the hollow structures stand empty. Even the Shiite militias, who had been able to pay substantial salaries until now, are no longer able to buy their fighters' loyalty with money alone. So they have been trying to outdo each other with brutality.” The Iraqi military's advance into Fallujah was stalled Wednesday by fierce resistance from Islamic State fighters and concerns over protecting tens of thousands of civilians still trapped inside the strategic city, officials said. – Associated Press
The Army says that the Obama administration's cap on troop levels in Afghanistan is leading to an increase in the use of contractors there, according to an Army document obtained by the Washington Post. The document, submitted to the House Armed Services Committee, says Army combat aviation brigades have deployed without their full maintenance staff, leading to a reliance on private defense contractors to carry out the work. That shift, the service argues, is affecting unit cohesion and stripping troops of critical skills and experience. President Obama will soon face what is likely his last major decision on the war in Afghanistan, as the administration examines how many U.S. troops to leave there and what role they will play. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint
Current restrictions on U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan and a heavy reliance on civilian contractors are eroding the skills and cohesion of units deployed to the country, according to information from the Army given to the House Armed Services Committee and provided to The Washington Post. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint The Taliban's selection of little-known cleric Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada as its new leader has essentially ended any hopes of peace talks with the Afghan militant group for the foreseeable future, U.S. officials said Wednesday. – Washington Times The U.S. military says Afghan security forces are back on the offensive and are gaining momentum a year after a resurgent Taliban knocked government troops back on their heels. – Washington Examiner The Afghan government is investigating reports that the Taliban beheaded two hostages being held in northern Kunduz province Wednesday, hours after several of the hostages gained their freedom. – Stars and Stripes The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan is sending his recommendations to senior leaders this week on how many American troops should remain in the country next year to work with Afghan forces battling a resurgent Taliban, a military spokesman said Wednesday. – Associated Press |
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