RUSSIA, SYRIA: Russia Claims It Has Killed Islamic State Leader al-Baghdadi
By Bassem Mroue & Vladimir Isachenkov, AP: “Russia claimed Friday it killed the leader of the Islamic State group in an airstrike targeting a meeting of IS leaders just outside the group’s de facto capital in Syria.” Oussama Romdhani writes: Tunisians have done the hard work already. They have established a democratic system that is quickly taking root. They are introducing necessary socioeconomic reforms to spur growth and progress. At the same time, they are doing their part in the global fight against extremism. In this long fight, they know the battle is theirs. But they need help and support from the West. Tunisia needs to be treated by the United States, in particular, like the strategic partner that it is. – World Affairs Journal
U.S., PAKISTAN: Pakistan: U.S. Drone Strikes ‘against Spirit of Ongoing Cooperation"
By Bill Roggio, FDD's The Long War Journal: “Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa said yesterday that U.S. drone strikes and other unilateral actions “are against spirit of ongoing cooperation” and that any intelligence on terrorist whereabouts should be forwarded to the army for action. Bajwa made the statement despite the fact that Pakistani officials have routinely passed along actionable intelligence to terrorists to help them avoid raids, as well as supposed “counterproductive” drone strikes have historically been effective in killing scores of top tier terrorist leaders.” Khalaf is one of many Yazidi women that Kurdish fighters in northern Syria have set out to free from Islamic State in covert operations, a female Kurdish militia commander told Reuters. They have dubbed the operation "revenge for the women of Sinjar", the homeland of Iraq's ancient Yazidi minority which Islamic State overran in the summer of 2014. - Reuters
Attacks in Iran Show Tehran's Chickens Coming Home to Roost By James Durso, The Hill: “The recent attack was also executed by a minority group, in this case Kurds. The perpetrators, who fought for Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, were quickly identified and the ringleader, Serias Sadeghi, was a known IS recruiter in Iranian Kurdistan. The IS claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iran’s government quickly blamed the U.S. and Saudi Arabia for the atrocity, so as to distract the people from the failings of the security apparatus and to signal the approved theme for demonstrations and reportage.” Frederick Kagan and Marie Donovan writes: The tragic events of June 7 in Tehran are likely to prove an inflection point of some variety--either marking the start of active ISIS operations in Iran itself or triggering a increase in Iran’s internal security operations and regional efforts against ISIS, Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and their allies. Or, of course, both. – AEI’s Critical Threats Iran’s foreign minister denounced on Thursday the United States response to a pair of deadly assaults in Tehran as “repugnant,” as the death toll in the attacks rose to 17, with 52 others wounded. – New York Times
Several administration officials said it took most of the day for the White House to work out the terse, curt wording of a statement that sought to show sympathy for the Iranian public even as it pointedly suggested that the behavior of Tehran’s clerical leaders made its people a target. – New York Times A video shared by Hezbollah’s Al Manar TV Wednesday purportedly shows footage of an American drone being tracked by an Iranian drone over Syria. The footage shows what appears to be a Predator drone in the sights of what is claimed to be an Iranian drone over Tanf, Syria, the site of a border crossing into Iraq. – Military Times Iran’s Revolutionary Guards ratcheted up the tensions with Saudi Arabia as it accused Tehran’s regional rival of involvement in Wednesday’s double terrorist attack in the capital, which left at least 13 people dead and wounded more than 50. – Financial Times Analysis: The attacks in Tehran threatened to escalate the broader regional conflict between the two heavyweight powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Western-allied gulf bloc is divided against itself. And Saudi Arabia, under the two-year-old reign of King Salman and his powerful son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is demonstrating an unexpected willingness to plunge into risky multifront battles. – New York Times Editorial: Having unleashed those murderous techniques on the world—and justified their use for years—Iran now finds itself a target of the same. That’s a tragedy for ordinary Iranians who, already victimized by their regime, are now at risk from its enemies. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Will McCants writes: At a time when the Islamic State’s caliphate is crumbling and its morale flagging, the strike won’t reverse its ill-fortunes — Iran may decide to hasten the demise of the Islamic State in response. But it is a vital shot in the arm for the group as it transitions from a proto-state to an insurgency. – Foreign Policy Tzvi Kahn writes: Rouhani’s tenure suggests that he remains a loyal foot soldier of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran’s ultimate powerbroker. In this sense, Iran’s executions reflect its core revolutionary ideology, which seeks to enforce radical Islamic norms as a counter to the perceived secularism and rapaciousness of the West. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies The Iranian-backed terror organization Hezbollah is vowing to launch strikes on U.S. forces operating in war-torn Syria in yet another sign that Iran and its terror proxies are beginning to take unprecedented direct action against American military coalition forces, according to U.S. officials and regional experts tracking the situation. – Washington Free Beacon
Afghanistan-Pentagon in charge: US President Donald Trump’s reported decision to delegate the Afghan war to Defense Secretary James Mattis reflects smart thinking, argues M.K. Bhadrakumar. Trump’s decision to pass management of the war to the Pentagon generals is one that Obama should have taken eight years ago, when he was hustled by his inner circle into sanctioning the famous “surge”. READ THE STORY HERE A Path Forward in Afghanistan By Samuel J. Ellison, Small Wars Journal: “The Oxford English Dictionary defines insurgency as “a rebellion against authority (for example, an authority recognized as such by the United Nations) when those taking part in the rebellion are not recognized as belligerents.” Defining a conflict as an insurgency is typically an act of subjection generally utilized to delegitimize the usually non-government affiliated combatants. An insurgency, unlike conventional warfare, concerns itself with legitimacy as the opposing sides are not only competing for domination of terrain, but for the support of the populace as well. The primary tactic of insurgents is guerilla warfare, the use of hit and run tactics and the ability to disappear into the local landscape. This tactic was utilized during biblical times when Judah and the Maccabees engaged the Greeks from the hills surrounding Jerusalem.” Tora Bora, the mountain redoubt that was once Osama bin Laden’s fortress, fell to the Islamic State early Wednesday, handing the extremists a significant strategic and symbolic victory, according to Afghan officials and local elders and residents. – New York Times
There is no military solution to the conflict in Afghanistan that is forcing record numbers of people from their homes, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday, during an unannounced visit to the war-torn country. - Reuters India’s main investigative agency on Monday raided residences and offices connected to the founders of NDTV, an influential cable TV station that has had run-ins with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government over its news coverage. – New York Times
Three years into Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s term, the two agendas that were woven together in his 2014 campaign — economic development and Hindu cultural revival — are becoming more difficult to reconcile, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, which was India’s top meat-producing state. – New York Times
Lee Smith writes: Reports suggest the breaking point was Doha's decision to send nearly $1 billion to rescue a hunting party held captive in Iraq—a ransom paid to Iran and to Sunni extremists, both of whom the Arab states consider threats to their national security. The ransom may be the proximate cause of the crisis, but tension has been brewing for some time. – The Weekly Standard
Ilan Berman writes: Naturally, administration officials are now scrambling to mediate the Arab-Qatari tensions in an effort to get their Mideast policy back on track. But the White House may not want to be so eager to defuse the current crisis after all, if the pressure now being applied by Saudi Arabia and its partners ends up compelling Doha to take on a more consistent and constructive role in regional counterterrorism – USA Today
Analysis: Why is Qatar so keen to be on good terms with Iran? One big reason is pure economics. Qatar and Iran share the world’s largest independent gas field beneath the waters of the Persian Gulf. The North Field, as Qatar calls it, provides almost all the emirate’s gas production and around 60 percent of its export revenues. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Kuwait seeks to mediate Qatar crisis
Kuwait is trying to mediate the crisis between Qatar and several Arab nations, according to Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber al-Sabah will meet with Saudi Arabia's King Salman today in an attempt to ease tensions. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed later by Yemen’s UN-backed government, the eastern government of Libya and the Maldives, on Monday severed diplomatic relations with Qatar over allegations that the Gulf nation supports terrorism. In addition, all land, sea and aviation links were closed. Meanwhile, Russia and Iran have also stepped up diplomatic efforts to end the row. On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke with the Qatari foreign minister, and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif engaged in intense telephone diplomacy, speaking on Monday with his Turkish, Kuwaiti, Malaysian, Iraqi, Omani, Algerian, Tunisian and Lebanese counterparts, as well as EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, about developments. Late on Monday, Zarif also spoke with the Qatari foreign minister. Where does Qatar go from here? To Moscow?
By Bob Bowker, Lowy Interpreter: “In the latest dispute between Qatar and the Saudis and Emiratis over Qatar’s support for Islamist and jihadist groups, its sponsorship of al-Jazeera and other outlets critical of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and its cordial relations with Iran (despite conflicting interests in Syria), Riyadh holds most of the cards.” The Right Way to Confront Iran in Syria By Alexander Decina & Jesse Marks, Defense One: “The United States is treading a narrow line in southeastern Syria, attempting to counter Iranian expansion without exacerbating the conflict or further embroiling American troops. A recent push by Iranian-backed groups toward a base used by U.S. advisors is elevating the prospects of direct conflict between the United States and Iran. While U.S. forces could easily rout Iran’s allies, this approach is far too risky. Instead, Washington should leverage its support for Moscow’s diplomatic efforts by demanding the addition of the Al-Tanf area of southeastern Syria to the safe zones in the Russia-brokered de-escalation plan.” Pakistan’s military has swept terrorist groups from the nation’s once-lawless tribal areas, but the gains could be put at risk if the security situation across the border in Afghanistan is not brought under control, Islamabad’s diplomat in Washington said, stressing that his nation is waiting for the Trump administration to clarify its strategy for the Afghanistan conflict. – Washington Times
Putin warns of Syria dismembermentRussian President Vladimir Putin told the Saint-Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday that Moscow remains concerned that Syriacould be dismembered. He also expressed hope that the de-escalation zones agreed to by Russia, Turkey and Iran will not serve as a blueprint for new borders. At the same meeting, Putin said Russia was ready to supply S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Turkey.
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