The Israeli's Want Victory: How To End The Peace Process Favorably, Daniel Pipes Interview7/13/2017 Lebanese Iranian Proxies Exhausted: The Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah and the Syrian government have enjoyed a close, fruitful relationship for nearly 40 years. But six years into the Syrian civil war, there are signs that battle fatigue and diverging strategic visions are fraying their alliance. – Washington Times Grant Rumley and Amir Tibon write: The Second Intifada was a seminal moment in Abbas’s political career: His aversion to terror was tested at home and praised abroad, yet his inability to effect real change on the ground revealed a broader weakness. This inability to convince the Palestinian street of the merits of his arguments plagues him still. – The American Interest
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Bold Israeli Leadership, Netanyahu Wants To Dismantle, Depoliticize Palestinian Refugee Status7/13/2017
ISLAMIC STATE: Monitoring Group Confirms ISIS Leader's Death
From CBS News: “A London-based monitoring group with a solid history of accurately reporting incidents from inside war-torn Syria said Tuesday that it had been able to confirm the death of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.”
Is Baghdadi Dead? For ISIS, it May Not Matter
By Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report: “"While Baghdadi's ascent to caliph was important in recruiting foreign fighters and building a facade of legitimacy around his state-building project, the far more important objective is to continue dismantling the organization as a whole, including its affiliates in Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, and Afghanistan," wrote Rand Corp. expert Colin Clarke.” Afghan police have arrested members of a human trafficking ring they say kidnapped 25 children and tried to smuggle them into Pakistan, where they were to be trained as suicide bombers for the Afghan Taliban. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Syrian Kurdish fighters clashed with Turkish forces shelling Kurdish-held towns in northwest Syria on Monday, Kurdish officials said. - Reuters
Frederic Hof writes: If Washington is willing to complicate and frustrate the regime’s ability to commit mass murder—and not just in southwestern Syria or with chemicals—it will have a powerful diplomatic card to play for the sake of a future Syria that is something other than a bleeding carcass on which the family, Iran, and the extremists they spawn will feed and threaten the West for decades to come. – Atlantic Council India-Amarnath terror attack: India’s mainstream opposition parties are engaged in a blame game after a terror attack by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba left seven pilgrims dead in Jammu and Kashmir’s Amarnath district on Monday. E Jaya Kumar writes that Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi squarely blamed the federal government for security lapses despite knowing that 40,000 armed soldiers had been deployed in the region to protect the pilgrims. READ THE STORY HERE
The tiny island kingdom of Bahrain is increasingly turning to a particularly draconian tool of repression: stripping dissidents of their citizenship…The pace of citizenship revocations has increased amid an intensifying crackdown on opposition. And activists charge that the silence of the West, particularly the United States and Britain, has emboldened authorities to press ahead with more repressive measures than the kingdom has employed since the response to mass protests in 2011. – Washington Post
India’s nuclear self-sufficiency: Narendra Modi’s government has committed itself to nuclear energy in a big way and has approved plans to build 10 new atomic reactors that will take India’s nuclear capacity to 63,000 megawatts by 2032. Seema Sengupta reports that this push to fast-track the domestic nuclear industry will help Delhi achieve long-term energy security and self-sufficiency while also contributing significantly to its sustainable development goals with regard to clean energy. READ THE STORY HERE
The words from Pakistan’s top foreign policy adviser could not have been clearer. At a news conference welcoming China’s foreign minister to the Pakistani capital this week, Sartaj Aziz declared, “Pakistan’s relations with China are the cornerstone of our foreign policy.” – Washington Post Pakistan’s unjust taxes: The poorest of the poor pay 80% of taxes collected in Pakistan while the rich, whose total contribution to overall tax revenue does not exceed 5%, enjoy special rights or privileges and a concessionary regime under the country’s unethical tax structure. F.M. Shakil reports that the poor pay huge indirect taxes on utilities, petrol, and mobile communication and Pakistan’s premier tax collection machinery, the Federal Board of Revenue, has failed miserably to widen the country’s tax net. READ THE STORY HERE
The poison used in the deadly chemical bomb attack in a rebel-held town of northern Syria in April was the banned nerve agent sarin, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said on Friday, although the report did not directly blame the government of Bashar al-Assad for the attacks. – New York Times Frederic Hof writes: That which passes for leadership in the West has contrived a problem in eastern Syria for which there may be no solution. “So what?” will be the reaction of many, in and out of government. Yet the expenditure of American treasure, along with the blood of others, will likely result in a Syria—east and west—dominated by Iran and doomed to state failure. – Atlantic Council Two Americans fighting alongside Kurdish forces in northern Syria were killed last week as the battle to retake the Islamic State’s de-facto capital there continues well into its second month. – Washington Post
A confidential U.S.-Russian cease-fire agreement for southwestern Syria that went into effect Sunday calls for barring Iranian-backed foreign fighters from a strategic stretch of Syrian territory near the borders of Israel and Jordan, according to three diplomatic sources. – Foreign Policy A fragile ceasefire may have taken hold in Syria but the country’s airspace — crowded with Russian, U.S., Syrian, and coalition warplanes — is as dangerous as ever, the commander of U.S. Air Combat Command says. – Defense One The U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group may increase airstrikes and overhead surveillance support for the fight to retake Raqqa, Syria, now that the militants have been largely defeated in Mosul, Iraq, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq said Tuesday. – Associated Press Charles Lister writes: The U.S. must urgently assume a more long-term view when it comes to Syria, based on a continued and genuine commitment to the idea of a negotiated settlement that includes as much of the opposition as possible. By sticking to the short-term vision pursued today, we risk having to intervene again in Syria further down the line, when the consequences of our limited approach come back to haunt us. By then, our options will be even more limited and risk-laden than they are today. – The Daily Beast
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley slammed the Security Council on Thursday for failing to take any action against Iran, which she said had "repeatedly and deliberately violated" sanctions imposed by the body. - Reuters
Saeed Ghasseminejad writes: Regrettably, if the past sheds any light on the future, it is safe to say that Iran will use its improved economy to challenge the United States and its allies, increase its support for terrorism, and expand its ballistic missile program. This is the ongoing price the U.S. and its allies will pay for the shortcomings of the 2015 nuclear deal. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies
The Moslem Brothers and the trouble in the Gulf. @erictrager19 @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres
So it should come as no surprise that anxiety about the Muslim Brotherhood is at the center of the Gulf crisis -- and the list of 13 demands. The second demand orders Doha to "sever all ties to terrorist organizations, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood," and to declare the Brotherhood a terrorist organization. The third demand calls for shutting down "Al Jazeera and its affiliate stations," which these countries view as a Brotherhood mouthpiece, and the fourth demand similarly calls for the closure of at least four other outlets that are regarded as staunchly pro-Brotherhood. The fifth demand calls on Doha to "immediately terminate the Turkish military presence currently in Qatar and end any joint military cooperation with Turkey inside Qatar." This reflects the four countries' concerns regarding Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's vocal sympathy with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood's "anti-coup" cause, and the prospect that Turkish influence within Qatar might consolidate Qatari support for Brotherhood organizations. The sixth demand orders Doha to "stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organizations that have been designated as terrorists by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, the U.S. and other countries," which includes many Brotherhood affiliates. The seventh demand asks Qatar to "hand over terrorist figures and wanted individuals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain to their countries of origin," a list that includes Brotherhood cadres and supporters, including Qaradawi. The eighth demand calls on Doha to "end interference in sovereign countries' internal affairs," which encompasses Brotherhood affiliates across the region, and the ninth demand effectively repeats this: "Stop all contacts with the political opposition in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain. Hand over all files detailing Qatar's prior contacts with and support for those opposition groups." What will Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt actually do if Qatar doesn't bend? In an interview with the Guardian, the UAE ambassador to Russia threatened secondary sanctions against Qatar. But a column in the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya went much further, warning Doha that its failure to accept the 13 demands "may be like Rabaa Square" -- a reference to Egyptian security forces' August 14, 2013, massacre of Muslim Brotherhood members and allies, in which hundreds were killed. In other words, this rift is also existential for the Qatari government. But given the country's long history of coups and abdications, there are no good answers for Doha. Refusing to comply with the 13 demands will exacerbate the external threat it faces, but yielding to those demands will show weakness domestically, and could make the emir vulnerable. Eric Trager is the Esther K. Wagner Fellow at The Washington Institute and author of Arab Fall: How the Muslim Brotherhood Won and Lost Egypt in 891 Days. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-muslim-brotherhood-is-the-root-of-the-qatar-crisis
Palestinian succession crisis begins. @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres.
"...Mashrawi is a loyalist of former Fatah leader and Mahmoud Abbas rival Mohammad Dahlan. Dahlan, the Fatah Preventive Security chief in the Strip, was once emphatically persona non grata for Hamas, and was ousted in the coup that put the Islamist terror group in power there 10 years ago. Mashrawi, regarded as Dahlan’s right-hand man and his key aide during periods of intense conflict with Hamas, was particularly loathed because of the central role he played in pursuing Hamas activists in 1996 and 1997. Notorious for shaving their beards off and arresting them for long periods, Mashrawi was one of the first to leave Gaza when tensions between Hamas and Fatah really heated up, during 2007.... http://www.timesofisrael.com/three-state-reality-emerges-as-hamas-dahlan-leadership-takes-shape-in-gaza/ Three years ago, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed the existence of an Islamic State caliphate and proceeded to sweep his forces through northern Iraq and toward Baghdad, threatening the viability of the fragile country. Today, the leader declaring an end to the caliphate is someone few would have imagined in the position, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
To Conquer a Peace: Operational Design in the Mexico City Campaign, 1847-1848 By Nathan Jennings & Bruce Stanley, Small Wars Journal: “Though newly arrived in Army doctrine, the concept of operational design finds precedent in American military history. The United States’ invasion and occupation of Central Mexico in 1847, for example, featured aspects of it when Major General Winfield Scott, General-in-Chief of the Army, applied relatively sophisticated understanding of the military, geographical, political, cultural, and economic architecture of Latin America’s largest country to the campaign.” AFGHANISTAN:
ISIS-K Fights the Taliban, Afghan Government-backed Locals in Tora Bora By Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's The Long War Journal: “In June, press reports indicated that Wilayah Khorasan had captured bin Laden’s cave complex in Tora Bora from the Taliban. It was a supposedly high-profile win for Baghdadi’s men at a time when they are losing ground in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Muslim Brotherhood Splinter Groups Emerging in Egypt?
By Joseph Hammond, RealClearDefense: “A series of attacks by two little known terrorist groups may signal that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is re-embracing violence, American analysts warn. The two groups which only emerged last year, Liwa al-Thawra and Hassm, are believed to be responsible for a recent wave of terror, including the assassination of a Brigadier General, the bombing of a police facility in Tanta and the shooting of Egyptian police officers in Cairo.” New ISIS leader? A low-profile terrorist, Iyad al-Obeidi, is earmarked to succeed the self-proclaimed commander of ISIS Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, if the latter is in fact proven dead. Sami Moubayed writes that Al-Obeidi, who until recently served as head of the Islamic State’s Military Command, comes with the right credentials as he was born into a prominent Sunni Muslim family and also formed part of Saddam’s Iraqi military elite. READ THE STORY HERE Options for U.S. Military Assistance
to the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq By Brandon Wallace, Divergent Options: “The KRG, a semi-autonomous region in Northern Iraq with intentions of secession, requires both intrastate and external sponsors to sustain functionality. The KRG depends on resource allocations from the central Government of Iraq (GOI) in Baghdad, as well as assistance from the United States and other international partners. The campaign to defeat ISIS requires a functioning KRG partnership, resulting in several partners providing additional capital and arms to the region.” DoD Report: Pakistan is Reason for Afghanistan Stalemate By Robert Cassidy, RealClearDefense: “The latest U.S. Department of Defense Report on “Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan” reiterates that Pakistan’s sanctuary, support, and employment of insurgents and terrorists is a strategic impediment to ending that war well, or to ending it at all.” U.S. Senators Call For New Strategy To Defeat Taliban In Afghanistan From RFE/RL: “"None of us would say that we are on a course to success here in Afghanistan," McCain said at a press briefing at NATO's headquarters in Kabul. "That needs to change, and quickly," he said. "The strongest nation on Earth should be able to win this conflict." Murky U.S.-Pakistan Relationship Defined by Afghan War
By Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief: “Earlier this week, U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee members went to Pakistan to meet with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to discuss regional security. At the meeting, Armed Services Chairman John McCain (R-AZ) said the U.S. and Pakistan “are united in our concern that the present situation in Afghanistan is not on a course for success” and that “close cooperation between the U.S. and Pakistan was essential for securing peace and stability in the region,” while Sharif referred to U.S.-Pakistani collaboration as “essential.”” Ignatius also writes: The United States and its partners are supplying potent Special Operations forces for training and air support. But the Syrian Kurds and their Arab allies are doing the fighting and the dying on the ground, and for better or worse, it’s their vision of governance that will take hold as the Islamic State falls. – Washington Post
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