Cairo Bombing Exposes the Muslim Brotherhood's Jihadist Tilt.
http://thehill.com/opinion/international/350346-congress-dont-meet-with-the-muslim-brotherhood
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/cairo-bombing-exposes-the-muslim-brotherhoods-jihadist-tilt
Cairo Bombing Exposes the Muslim Brotherhood's Jihadist Tilt. http://thehill.com/opinion/international/350346-congress-dont-meet-with-the-muslim-brotherhood
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US-Saudi arms deal: The US State Department on Friday approved a possible US$15-billion sale of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems to Saudi Arabia, MK Bhadrakumar writes. US officials confirmed that the sale was part of the $110-billion package of defense equipment and services initially announced during US President Donald Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia in May. The timing of the US announcement is highly significant – it comes in the wake of claims by Russian officials that Saudi Arabia had shown interest in buying the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. This means the Saudis have successfully pressured the Trump administration to approve the sale of the THAAD system. And Washington has signaled that the US will not let Russia make an entry into the Saudi arms bazaar. READ THE STORY HERE
INDIA & PAKISTAN: ALLIES FOR "THE LONG WAR" & SURVEY RESULTS ARE IN, WHO IS BEST RULER FOR PAKISTAN10/5/2017 India Is Key to U.S. Success in Afghanistan By Willis Krumholz, RealClearDefense: “The U.S. is rightfully pushing for greater burden sharing among our allies in the region. This is both necessary to achieve an eventual U.S. exit, and for Afghanistan to secure its long-term prosperity and stability. ” Pakistan Draws a New Battle Line in the Afghan War From Stratfor: “By assisting both the United States and the Taliban throughout their nearly 16-year conflict, Pakistan has managed to benefit from an alliance with Washington, collecting over $33 billion in aid since 2002, while also pursuing its security objectives.” Pakistan’s Intelligence Service 'Has Connections With Terrorist Groups' By Bill Roggio, FDD's The Long War Journal: “When asked if “the ISI is still helping the Taliban,” Dunford responded that “it’s clear to me that the ISI has connections with terrorist groups.” US-India defense deal: Upgraded only last year, US-India relations entered a new upbeat phase this August with the signing of the landmark bilateral Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement that enables reciprocal military access of facilities for both countries, Sabena Siddiqui writes. It was the second of the initial four foundational agreements the US usually has with its defense partners; the first one was the General Security of Military Information Agreement, which India signed in 2002. Having felt uneasy about committing itself to the remaining three agreements, the previous Indian government held off, as going ahead would have been perceived as lodging it in the US “camp.” As of now, even the current government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not set any timeline for signing the remaining two deals. READ THE STORY HERE
Lessons From the October 1973 Arab-Israeli War
By David Wallsh, Modern War Institute: “This week marks the forty-fourth anniversary of the beginning of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Known as the Yom Kippur War in Israel and the Ramadan or October War in Egypt and Syria, the dramatic events of October 1973 profoundly altered the course of Middle East politics, eventually leading to the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty and Cairo’s realignment away from the Soviet Union and toward the United States. RIYADH GOES TO MOSCOW; THE CIPHER BRIEF REPORTS: THE SAUDI'S ARE LOSING; ENCIRCLEMENT BEGINS10/4/2017 War, Plague and Famine Ride Over Yemen | Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief
Billed the “forgotten child” of the Middle East, Yemen is ensnared in a three-year old civil war with no end in sight. Despite haphazard international attempts to mediate a ceasefire, the prospects for reconciliation remain bleak, and Yemeni citizens continue to face a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Peace Remains Distant Prospect as Civilians Suffer | Robert Richer, Former Deputy Associate Director of Operations, CIA "The situation today is basically a stalemate. Neither side has the ability to gain the upper hand, and there really is no popular leader. There are popular tribal leaders and there are popular people who represent movements such as the Houthis or the more conservative tribes, but for the most part, the war is bogged down." Al Qaeda, ISIS are ‘Biggest Winners’ in Saudi Campaign | Nasser Arrabyee, Yemeni Journalist "Everyone who fights with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen is either al Qaeda, ISIS, Salafi or a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia calls these groups “resistance or national army” to fool Americans." "There will be no peace deal in the near or distant future without the will of the U.S. administration to reach such a deal. I said this about two years ago, here in The Cipher Brief, and nothing has changed." Pakistan’s spy agencies: The running conflict between the civilian Intelligence Bureau (IB) and the military’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is at boiling point, with the former accused of political maneuvering and overstepping constitutional bounds, FM Shakil writes. The civilian watchdog – under instruction from a ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) administration whose grip on power looks ever-more shaky – has been carrying out around-the-clock surveillance of the judiciary, opposition parties and military intelligence for some time. The bubbling rivalry between the IB and ISI attracted attention in June this year when a Joint Investigation Team probing alleged money laundering made a written complaint to the Supreme Court that the IB was wiretapping JIT members, including ISI and Military Intelligence personnel. READ THE STORY HERE The US Will Be Dropping A Lot More Bombs on Afghanistan // Caroline Houck
More air support for Afghan forces will help drive the Taliban to the negotiating table, Mattis and Dunford tell Congress.
Mattis Reveals New Rules of Engagement
By Aaron Mehta, Defense News: “U.S. forces are no longer bound by requirements to be in contact with enemy forces in Afghanistan before opening fire, thanks to a change in rules of engagement orchestrated by Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis.” Mattis, Dunford: Afghanistan War Is Progressing By John Grady, USNI News: “Speaking at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Joint Chiefs chairman Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford said that a victory after 16 years of war in Afghanistan would be “convincing the Taliban they cannot win on the battlefield; we can do that.” However, he said when asked, “we are not at the point where we can bring a successful resolution to this war.””
Congressional report says that Afghan National Army and Security Forces are in failure. @billroggio @thomasjoscelyn
The Congressionally mandated Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) issued a detailed report evaluating the current challenges facing the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) and the lessons learned from America’s nearly 15-year campaign in the country. The report argues that security priorities guiding US decisions early in the war effort negatively impacted the current priorities of building ANDSF long-term sustainability capabilities. The report, which is the first of its kind, concludes that the ANDSF is plagued by debilitating attrition, corruption, equipment shortages, incomplete training, a lack of security infrastructure and widespread illiteracy. https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/10/lessons-learned-from-15-years-in-afghanistan-sigar.php
Lessons Learned From 15 Years in Afghanistan
By Phil Hegseth, FDD's The Long War Journal: “Does the ANDSF need to clear and hold more Afghan territory and provide more reliant security in order for the civilian-side support institutions to thrive? Or, do the civilian-side support institutions need bolstering in order for a more capable ANDSF to take the fight to the Taliban? These questions remain unanswered.” Last week, Iraq’s Kurds voted overwhelming to become an independent state in a referendum. Not only does the central government in Baghdad not recognize the vote, but as Michael Rubin writes in a recent AEIdeas blog, when one considers the large Kurdish populations in Turkey, Syria, and Iran, granting Iraq’s Kurds a state still leaves much of the Kurdish question unanswered. Read more here.
As Rubin outlines in a Washington Examiner op-ed, no country opposed the Iraqi Kurdish referendum more than Iran. The reason is clear: Iranian leaders fear the precedent that Iraqi Kurds may set for Iran’s own restive Kurdish population. Just as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds force intervened in post-2003 Iraq to tarnish democracy’s growth there, they may intervene surreptitiously in Iraqi Kurdistan to signal to Iran’s own Kurds that even talking about secession would be disastrous. Continue here. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had originally pleaded with Kurdish officials to delay the vote, and on Friday he dismissed the vote as a “unilateral referendum.” Now that the votes have been counted, what should official US policy be? In a second AEIdeas blog, Rubin suggests that the US and its Western allies should eschew the authoritarian model in Iraq and Kurdistan and insist on real, substantive democracy not only in terms of elections but also with regard to the rule of law. Read how here. In Libya Strike, Military Shows New Lethal Powers Under Trump
By Paul D. Shinkman, U.S. News & World Report: “U.S. forces in Africa last week staged what would have been an otherwise unremarkable attack against Islamic State extremists but for one key detail: The operation was the first to rely on authorities granted under the Trump administration that allow the military to conduct lethal strikes outside a designated war zone and without explicit White House approval in advance." see also: U.S. Resumes Strikes Against Islamic State in Libya |
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