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Ep. 28: What if America pulls out of Afghanistan? with Seth Jones, Bill Roggio and more.
// Defense One Staff Welcome to our podcast about the news, strategy, tech, and business trends defining the future of national security.
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One year post-Ritz, MBS looks to ride out Khashoggi affair
BY ALISON TAHMIZIAN MEUSE With the ambitions of the US and its regional allies pinned on his success, the Saudi crown prince is on track to negotiate past the murder of a critic
Turn Saudi Arabia into trusted partner in Middle East conflict
Danielle Pletka | The Hill It has been a month since Saudi writer and dissident Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. That case may have faded from the front page, but debates about American policy toward Saudi Arabia remain heated. Tunisia reshuffles Cabinet amid economic crisis Tunisia’s Prime Minister Youssef Chahed announced a Cabinet reshuffle on Monday in a bid to solve the country’s political and economic crisis. Chahed named 10 new ministers but did not change several key posts, including the ministries of Finance, Interior, Defense and Foreign Affairs. The move comes amid mounting pressure against Chahed’s government amid the economic crisis plaguing the country. President Beji Caid Essebsi has rejected the reshuffle, further deepening the rift between the former allies. Read More Tunisia’s president agrees to swear in new ministers Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi on Thursday agreed to swear in new ministers as part of a Cabinet reshuffle, reversing course from his previous refusal to do so. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed announced a Cabinet reshuffle and named 10 new ministers on Monday amid a political and economic crisis. But Essebsi initially rejected the reshuffle, further deepening the rift between the former political allies. “I have no problem with the prime minister, but I dislike the handling of his reshuffle,” Essebsi told reporters on Thursday. The president’s son Hafedh Caid Essebsi is the head of Chahed’s Nidaa Tounes party and has blamed the prime minister for Tunisia’s economic woes. Read More Woman tapped as head of Presidential Diwan in Tunisia A woman has been appointed as head of the Presidential Diwan for the first time since Tunisia’s 1965 independence. Jon B. Alterman writes: Despite widespread enthusiasm, technology has not yielded much democracy in the Arab world over the last two decades. Amidst hope that a “new Arab public” would emerge, especially during the Arab uprisings of 2011, governments have stubbornly reasserted themselves. The public seems to be accepting a bargain that represses political speech in exchange for greater freedom in other aspects of life. This bargain may not endure, but it has shown surprising resilience. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
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Hardliners coerced Rouhani to make political concessions. Rouhani proposed four nominees to fill cabinet vacancies on October 20 following months of hardline pressure on Rouhani to address the failing economy and reshuffle his economic team. Hardliners have co-opted economic difficulties and public disaffection to drive five senior officials from the administration since July 2018. Parliament approved Mohammad Eslami as Roads and Urban Development Minister on October 26. Eslami maintains close ties to Iran’s defense industries and the Foundation of the Oppressed (Bonyad-e Mostazafan), an IRGC-affiliated business conglomerate and holding company. The foundation is one of the regime’s most powerful tools to exert economic influence and dominate the Iranian economy. Eslami has held senior positions in the organization and its affiliated entities for years, serving as the foundation's civil division executive deputy and as chairman of the boards of directors of two subsidiary construction companies. Eslami’s accession to the ministry may presage a rightward shift in the cabinet’s political center of gravity. Eslami will enable hardliners to expand their economic control domestically and abroad. The Roads and Urban Development Ministry is central to both Iran’s own infrastructure development and Iranian reconstruction efforts in Syria. The ministry has discussed possible Iranian participation in Syrian transportation and construction projects on numerous occasions with Syrian officials in recent months. These engagements have included ongoing negotiations over Iranian companies constructing 30,000 residential units in Syria and connecting Iranian rail lines to Syria through Iraq. The Foundation of the Oppressed would benefit through participation in these lucrative projects and thus expand hardliners’ economic influence regionally, which Eslami’s promotion makes likely. Rouhani’s survival strategy includes offering increased economic influence to hardliners in exchange for a political ceasefire. Eslami is the antithesis of the economic policies and approach Rouhani has promoted during his presidency. Rouhani seeks to reduce the IRGC’s economic domination domestically and favors a diverse private sector. Eslami is contrastingly tied to the IRGC’s monopoly over various economic sectors. Yet Rouhani seems determined to make such a concession: he had previously offered IRGC financier and hardline industrialist Parviz Fattah the position of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare Minister on August 14 after Parliament impeached the incumbent. Fattah reportedly refused that proposal, presumably forcing Rouhani to find another IRGC-friendly individual to bring into his cabinet. Hardliners will nonetheless leverage mounting pressures to instigate additional changes to Rouhani’s administration. Eslami’s appointment marks a political win for regime conservatives, and they will seek to replicate this victory. Hardliners recognize the success of their pressure campaign to undermine and discredit Rouhani thus far. They will therefore continue to condemn the reformist government. The reimposition of U.S. sanctions, the perceived failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and public discontent present hardliners an opportunity to extract additional concessions. Hardliners may push for the interpellation of additional senior reformist officials, possibly including First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri or Rouhani himself, as the second round of U.S. sanctions return. Mattis Sets 30-Day Deadline for Yemen Ceasefire (DefenseOne) “We’ve admired this problem for long enough down there,” the defense secretary said Yemeni rebels unveil new missile (IHS Jane’s 360) The Yemeni rebel group Ansar Allah (Houthis) unveiled a guided version of its Badr-1 artillery rocket on 28 October, potentially giving it a weapon system that can carry out precision strikes on Saudi Arabia. U.S. raising pressure on Saudi Arabia over Qatar and Yemen, sources say (Bloomberg) The U.S. is raising pressure on Saudi Arabia to wind down its political and economic isolation of Qatar, according to three people familiar with the effort, as the kingdom continues to be buffeted by its role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Mohamad Bazzi writes: The Saudi leadership’s leveraging of checkbook diplomacy, and threatening to withhold trade and investments, is directed not only at the Arab and Muslim worlds. Over the past year, Prince Mohammed halted trade and economic deals with Germany and Canada in retaliation for their criticism of Saudi actions, including the Saudi-led war in Yemen and the arrests of women’s rights activists. – New York Times
Suicide bombing injures dozens in Tunis
At least 15 people, including 10 police officers, were wounded Monday when a woman blew herself up along a popular avenue in Tunisia's capital. The Interior Ministry said “a 30-year-old woman blew herself up in a police vehicle" on Habib Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis. No group has claimed responsibility for the blast. The attack ends a period of relative calm since 12 people were killed in an Islamic State bombing against a bus of presidential guards in Tunis in 2015. Read More Seth G. Jones writes: The Trump administration should work with the Afghan government and regional powers—including Pakistan—to reach a political settlement with the Taliban. […]U.S. policymakers and the public need to carefully think through the implications of withdrawal. A precipitous exit might be worse than the status quo. – Center for Strategic and International Studies Panos Mourdoukoutas writes: For Pakistan, CPEC could help sustain economic growth and raise the living standards of its people. […]And, perhaps, something more in the case of Pakistan: Transparency for the CPEC project. Already, IMF has asked information about CPEC. But Pakistan has declined it, according to some sources, placing at risk the fate of the IMF bailout of the country and the future of CPEC. – Forbes
Hoover Scholar: US Break With Saudi Arabia Would Deliver Middle East To Iran
via Hoover Daily Report In the wake of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, US leadership should think beyond immediate events and consider the long-term, positive policy implications of remaining allied with Saudi Arabia, a Stanford scholar says.
Why Chinese public diplomacy is failing in Iran
While political and economic engagement between Iran and China continues to increase, China’s image remains poor as it is hostage to factional disputes within Iran. IRANIAN - PAKISTANI RELATIONS: KIDNAPPING, YEMENI MEDIATION, SAUDI BAILOUTS & PEACE TALKS WITH INDIA10/25/2018 Kidnapping of Iranians puts Iran-Pakistan ties to the test The Oct. 16 kidnapping of 14 Iranian security personnel by a Pakistan-based terrorist group is putting the spotlight on the viability of the nascent security cooperation between Iran and Pakistan. Pakistan says mediating between Iran, Saudi Arabia in Yemen Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan said in a televised speech on Wednesday that he is mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia to end the war in Yemen. Pakistani Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry said the idea for Pakistan to mediate was first floated by Khan in a trip to Saudi Arabia after his election, and that "since then, Pakistan has been carrying out a Track II process.” Read More Pakistan wins $6-bn bailout from Saudis amid Khashoggi row BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID Riyadh gave Pakistan a bailout package worth US$6 billion at a time it desperately needed diplomatic support, given the crisis over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi RAND CORP: US REGIONAL POLICY AFTER KHASHOGGI & WHY SAUDI'S ECONOMIC FUTURE REMAINS IN JEAPORDY10/25/2018
U.S. Middle East Policy After Khashoggi
Details about the abduction and killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi continue to emerge. How will this incident impact U.S. policy in the Middle East? According to RAND's James Dobbins, the United States needs to "move back toward a distinctly American policy...one which can be distinguished from that of its local partners." Read more »
The US needs to put its values back at the center of its foreign policy
Danielle Pletka | The Atlantic Why do murders like those of Jamal Khashoggi and Farzad Barzoft happen? Simple. Because antidemocratic regimes believe they can get away with it. And because the US and its allies have failed to embrace a national-security strategy founded on values.
Saudi Arabia is Hurting American Interests
// Richard Fontaine After Yemen, Qatar, kidnappings and Khashoggi, it's time to reset the U.S. relationship with the kingdom.
Time to Rethink the Price of Partnering With Dictators
// Danielle Pletka Dissidents need to know the U.S. stands with them, also.
Foreign Policy As Moral Preening
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine The murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi regime insider and columnist, in Istanbul continues to dominate the news cycle as the president and Congress consider their response. Despite the dog-bites-man nature of the story–– autocrats and tyrants across the globe regularly eliminate political enemies without such intense outrage from the West–– our media and politicians have conducted an orgy of moral preening, thunderous denunciations, and various proposed punishments of Saudi heir to the throne Mohammed bin Salman.
Mattis Treads Carefully on Khashoggi Crisis
// Katie Bo Williams The defense secretary condemned the killing of the Washington Post columnist but did not accuse Saudi Arabia, in keynote speech at security conference on the Persian Gulf. In a Post-Khashoggi World, Impunity Will Reign // Uri Friedman The ugly geopolitics in the wake of the Saudi journalist's death point to a new era of impunity.
Public Deserves an Afghanistan War Progress Report
Jim Banks, National Review The U.S. Military Has a Management Problem Editorial Board, Bloomberg The Afghanistan War Is Over. We Lost. Thomas Jocelyn, The Weekly Standard
Ballots and bullets in Afghanistan
(Brookings Institution) Despite Taliban threats of violence to disrupt last Saturday’s parliamentary elections in Afghanistan, many Afghans showed up in large numbers to vote. Their commitment once again debunked the myths and caricatures so readily put forth by Western commentators that Afghans do not want democracy.
How Did Afghanistan Become a War Without End?
By Robert Cassidy, Modern War Institute: “The value of the political object, or the worth of the ends sought, determines how long and what costs the United States should be willing to pay. In Afghanistan, if those political goals are articulated clearly, their worth should relate directly to the will of the U.S. polity to persevere in the war to a successful end.” Jon B. Alterman writes: Four years ago, the United States started committing troops to Syria. Four years into operations, the troops are clear what they have to do every day. What they are unclear about is why. At a recent gathering in Washington, a U.S. general lamented that the United States has multiple policy goals in Syria, but it has not been able either to prioritize or deconflict them. That is a problem. – Center for Strategic & International Studies
After Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia’s economic future is uncertain
Karen Young | The Washington Post Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman now faces a real political and economic crisis of legitimacy with the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. What happens next in Saudi Arabia will affect the regional economy for years to come.
Erdogan rejects Saudi explanation of Khashoggi’s death
In an address to members of Turkey’s ruling party this morning, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rejected Saudi Arabia’s explanation for the Oct. 2 death of Jamal Khashoggiand said “strong signs” pointed to a planned operation to kill the journalist. Erdogan said a Saudi team of three showed up in Istanbul just a day before Khashoggi’s death to conduct searches of nearby forests where authorities have subsequently looked for the reporter’s body. “Saudi Consulate cameras were removed and all footage was deleted from hard drives. Camera footage shows Khashoggi did not leave the consulate," Erdogan said. "This is a political murder," he added. Though Erdogan believes Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud will cooperate with the investigation, the Turkish leader called on Riyadh to reveal the identity of a local agent who allegedly helped hide the body and called for the trial of 18 people arrested by the kingdom to be held in Turkey. Erdogan said that he told the Saudis that Consul General Mohammad al-Otaibi was negligent and incompetent. Otaibi has been recalled to Riyadh and relieved of his duties. Read More
Simon Henderson writes: The traditional way of looking at Saudi Arabia has been that the royal family rules by consensus and with caution, choosing leaders based on experience and seniority. That template has been increasingly invalidated since the accession of King Salman in January 2015 and the emergence of his thirty-three-year-old son Muhammad bin Salman, who has been crown prince and heir apparent since June 2017. – Washington Institute
Emma Ashford writes: But it was just that — a marriage of convenience. With changes in the oil market and regional security, the rationale for the relationship has been diminishing for years. […]But the shock of Khashoggi’s death has created an opening to reassess this alliance, highlighting that Americans have no shared values with Saudi Arabia, and perhaps, fewer shared interests than they thought. – War on the Rocks But the Trump administration holds the conservative bona fides needed to bring Central European countries back into the Western fold. Find out what the US should do here. Mossad Director Yossi Cohen warned of Iranian expansionist aspirations in the Middle East in a rare public speech on Monday. One of Israel’s main objectives, he said at a budget conference held by the Finance Ministry, “is to push Iran out of the (rest of the) Middle East. It has a strong presence on the Lebanese border thanks to Hezbollah; it has a strong presence on the Syrian border […]”. – Ynet Simon Henderson and Assaf Orion write: For Israel, the visit […]shows Muscat’s role as a possible back channel with Iran, perhaps relating to Syria. For Qaboos, the meeting may help deflect criticism of his relations with Tehran and his willingness to tolerate the transshipment of Iranian weapons to Houthi rebels in Yemen. In addition, it implies that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are not the only regional routes for Israeli diplomacy. For Washington, the meeting is another good first step down the long road to reviving the peace process. – Washington Institute Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Oman marked a new chapter in his effort to strengthen ties with Gulf Arab nations and shift the conversation from Palestinian issues toward regional threats like Iran. – Wall Street Journal
His betrayal has put Trump in an impossible bind, and its result is going to be unpleasant and unsatisfying. What are the ramifications for the US-Saudi relationship? Find out here. The Khashoggi Affair Will Change the US-Saudi Relationship // Kathy Gilsinan Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has arrived in Riyadh with instructions to get to the bottom of a journalist’s disappearance from a Saudi consulate in Istanbul, while an outpouring of leaks from Turkish intelligence seem to point to a case of murder, perhaps orchestrated at an official level. Read full article » Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reached a fork in the road when he admitted Saudi Arabia was involved in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. The key question now is whether MBS will take the right turn and learn from his mistakes, writes Danielle Pletka in an AEIdeas blog. There’s obviously much more to do if MBS is to complete the transformation of Saudi Arabia into a “real” and modern country. But horribly, and ironically, the Khashoggi killing could provide MBS the opportunity to take the kingdom in a new direction — if he is kingly enough to take it. Finish reading here. Saudi Arabia's shifting narrative on Khashoggi reveals fragility The Khashoggi affair is the latest example of how Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has become a liability for Saudi Arabia. Machiavellian lessons from the Saudi and Russian assassination debacles
(The National Interest) Whether or not Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered the chemical attack on Sergey Skripal or Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman sent a hit-squad to assassinate Jamal Khashoggi, these rulers clearly share Machiavelli’s view of politics as a harsh and often deadly battleground, and they have not hesitated to employ brutal tactics in Chechnya, Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, and elsewhere. Egypt signs strategic pact with Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisiinked a new strategic partnership between their two countries in Sochi on Wednesday. The document is meant to lay the ground for more robust interaction in military, political and cultural affairs. The two also discussed plans to establish a free trade zone between Egypt and the Eurasian Economic Union. "I am confident this will open up additional opportunities for boosting economic cooperation and increasing the trade turnover," Putin said at the press conference following the talks. Read More
Why Won’t the U.S. Leave Afghanistan?
By William McHenry, Small Wars Journal: “MDuring the past few months, many foreign policy analysts have overlooked a series of troubling reports from America's war in Afghanistan. In late July, the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has been pushing Afghan security forces to withdraw from “vast stretches of the country.” Moreover, in the last few weeks, the Afghan government sustained significant losses defending territory in four districts from the Taliban, and Kabul has stopped reporting the number of deaths of its soldiers because the losses in many districts have become unsustainable.” |
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