Whoever takes over Tunisia’s leadership eight years after the revolution will face an array of challenges, not least addressing the long-held grievances of much of the population and safeguarding the country’s democratic gains.
Political wrangling within Tunisia's leading party points to power struggle
Whoever takes over Tunisia’s leadership eight years after the revolution will face an array of challenges, not least addressing the long-held grievances of much of the population and safeguarding the country’s democratic gains.
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Russia spars with Hezbollah over deployment in southern Syria Russia's troop deployments near Syria’s Lebanese border are causing friction with Iran-backed forces including Hezbollah, which said the Russian move had been uncoordinated with them. The situation was resolved on Tuesday when Syrian army soldiers took over three positions where the Russians had deployed near the town of Qusair in Homs province, a non-Syrian military commander told Reuters. “It was an uncoordinated step. Now it is resolved,” said the commander, adding Hezbollah fighters were still located in the area. “The Syrian army … is deploying at the border.” Read More Turkish military looks to clear out Kurdish stronghold in Iraq The Turkish military could soon launch operations to clear Kurdish rebel bases in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said Monday. "It is not a matter of operation, but a matter of timing. Qandil is no longer a faraway goal for us," Soylu said, referring to the mountainous area of Iraqi Kurdistan near the Iraq-Iran border, a hideout for the leadership of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) that has fought Ankara since 1984. Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said Tuesday that Turkey now has 11 bases in northern Iraq. Read More Turkey says US agreed to remove Kurdish allies from Syria's Manbij The bilateral road map for the contested Syrian city of Manbij negotiated by Turkey and the United States will remove US-backed Kurdish fighters from the area, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Monday after talks with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington. Cavusoglu said the implementation of the road map, including parameters for withdrawing Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and setting up local governance structures, “should take less than six months” as US-Turkish military patrols take over security. “We will begin to get rid of one of the issues marring our ties with the United States,” Cavusoglu said of the planned road map. A joint readout of Monday’s meeting, however, made no mention of Kurdish withdrawal from Manbij. Read More Turkey bombs Kurdish safe haven in Iraq
The Turkish air force bombed several villages in northern Iraq on Tuesday, destroying 16 targets and killing at least six Kurdish militants, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday. As part of an effort to root out safe havens of Turkey's outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, the Turkish army advanced nearly 16 miles into Iraqi territory over the past few days toward the group’s outposts in the Qandil Mountains. “Qandil is next, Sinjar is next. We will face up to whoever is threatening, disturbing my country,” Erdogan said during a campaign rally ahead of June 24 presidential and parliamentary elections. Read More Hifter forces close to ‘imminent’ victory in Libya’s Derna Forces loyal to Libyan military commander Khalifa Hifter said Monday their offensive to retake the eastern city of Derna from Islamists is in its final stages after victories in several districts. Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) advanced in the district of Sheiha over the weekend. “There are still pockets of resistance,” LNA spokesman Gen. Ahmed al-Mesmari said as clashes continued on Monday. Hifter, who is allied with Libya’s eastern-based government, launched a military offensive earlier this month to “liberate” Derna, the last major bastion of opposition to the LNA in eastern Libya. Separately, Libya’s UN-backed Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj met on Monday with Tunisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Jhinaoui in Tripoli. The two officials discussed ways to promote dialogue between Libya’s rival factions in order to reach a political solution. Read More Libya’s Hifter says 'victory is near' in Derna
Libyan military commander Khalifa Hifter said on Monday his forces will soon declare victory in the eastern city of Derna, the last major bastion of opposition to his self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) in the area. Hifter, who is allied with Libya’s eastern-based government, launched a military offensive earlier this month to “liberate” the city of Derna from Islamists who have occupied it since the 2011 uprising against Moammar Gadhafi. In a video published on YouTube, Hifter said his forces are ready to enter the city and take control after clearing its suburbs. A spokesman for the LNA said today that Hifter’s forces have managed to capture 75% of the city. Read More The Russian Gordian Knot begins to unravel NORMAN A. BAILEY Winston Churchill famously described the Soviet Union as “A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” Many commentators and politicians say Vladimir Putin’s Russia is every bit as mysterious and enigmatic as its predecessor. An astonishing recent declaration by the president, however, at the Russian equivalent of the Davos conclave, in St Petersburg, casts a whole new light on the country's involvement in the Middle East, which in recent years has become more.. Defiant Qatar determined to proceed with S-400 deal
NICOS PANAYIOTIDES The primary goal of any state is first and foremost to ensure its security, while other goals (social justice, prosperity, etc) are secondary. This is because of the anarchic nature of the international system, which has no supreme authority to safeguard the state’s national interests. Qatar is not an exception to this rule of international relations. Being in a threatening regional environment, it seeks to balance any threats to its security posed by local actors,... SURPRISE FOR PAKISTANI ELECTIONS: ESTABLISHMENT WILL LOSE & THE ARMY'S ENDURING GRIP ON POLITICS6/5/2018 Pro-establishment forces facing defeat in Pakistan election IMAD ZAFAR A recent survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit has predicted a win for the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) in the general elections. According to the survey, the PML-N will form a government in the province of Punjab and Shahbaz Sharif could become the next prime minister of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif would continue to enjoy influence over the party if it wins in the general elections, according to the survey. Earlier, a survey conducted by Gallup... The army’s enduring grip on Pakistani politics
VIVEK KATJU As Pakistan proceeds into national elections scheduled for July 25, the Pakistan Army is maintaining its political neutrality. During a press conference on June 4, Major General Asif Gafoor, the army’s main spokesman, appealed to political parties not to drag it into the elections. He said that all allegations concerning its interference in the country’s political life had been proved wrong. Significantly, Gafoor refused to comment on former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s hostile comments... The Yemeni rebel group Ansar Allah (the Houthis) claimed on 13 June that it repelled an amphibious landing by the Saudi-led coalition when it hit a naval ship with two missiles earlier in the day. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the main coalition partners, have commented on the claim. - IHS Jane’s
Editorial: Though Yemen has always been a poor country, this crisis is man-made. It was triggered by the intervention of the Saudis and Emiratis in Yemen’s war three years ago. Promising quick action to drive the Houthis out of the capital, Sanaa, and other cities they had captured, the two countries carried out bombing campaigns that killed thousands of civilians but failed to recapture much of the country. - Washington Post
Israel and Russia discuss Iranian withdrawal from Syria border
Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu in Moscow on Thursday to discuss a possible security zone free of Iranian troops along Syria's border with Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Liberman reportedly told Shoigu that Israel seeks to “keep an open line” between the Israel Defense Forces and the Russian army as “advanced talks” take place with Moscow on a potential withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria. Following the meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the situation in Syria in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad insisted in an interview with Kremlin-backed Russia Today on Thursday that the Iranian presence in Syria was limited to officers assisting the Syrian army and accused Israel of spreading “lies” about Hezbollah's role in the civil war. In response, Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz called Assad's comments “cheap propaganda” aimed at obscuring the fact that massive Israeli strikes killed several Iranians inside Syria last month. Read More Israel’s Nuclear Strategy: Enhancing Deterrence in the New Cold War By Louis René Beres, Strategy Bridge: “In the future, any continuing policy of complete ambiguity could cause an already nuclear enemy state to overestimate the first-strike vulnerability of Israel's nuclear forces.” Israel’s Nuclear Strategy (Part II)
By Louis René Beres, Strategy Bridge: “Although not readily discernible or predictable, these significant impacts upon enemy rationality could themselves be derived from the ever-changing dynamics of Cold War II.
Proving Ground: Iran’s Operational Strategy in Syria
By Nicholas Hargreaves-Heald, Small Wars Journal: “Over the past thirty-six years, Iran has sought to accomplish two integrally linked strategic goals: weaken Western, Israeli, and Saudi influence in the region, and improve Iranian influence across the globe.
Dead Drop: May 25
By Anonymous, The Cipher Brief: “TAKING COMMAND OF WHAT, EXACTLY: Lt. General Scott Miller has been nominated as the next commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, which would make him the 9th U.S. General in 17 years to take the post and the first one appointed under President Trump...”
U.S., AFGHANISTAN: U.S. Strike Hits Taliban ‘Command and Control Node’ in Helmand
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: “The U.S. military says it struck “a command and control node for high-level Taliban leaders” overnight in the Taliban-controlled district of Musa Qala in Helmand province via an artillery system.”
What the Long, Corruption-Enabling, Mostly Failed Afghanistan-Stabilization Effort Tells Us
// Caroline Houck It's about managing expectations: ours about the timeline, the foreign population's about governance. ![]()
Mohamed Galal Mostafa writes: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is driven by several factors: ethnic, national, historical, and religious. [...]What is less often appreciated, however, is how much religion impacts the identity of actors implicated in this conflict, the practical issues at stake, and the relevant policies and attitudes -- even of non-religious participants on both sides. - Washington Institute
[Read Emily Estelle’s analysis of Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar, one of the four leaders who agreed to the Paris declaration: “The General’s Trap in Libya” and “Libya Update: Exit the General?”]
“The Future of Iran’s Security Policy” for additional insight on the Iranian regime’s national security doctrine.] AEI MAPS & CHARTS online.
On 67th anniversary, Pakistan-China relations entering new era
ZAMIR AWAN This Monday, May 21, marked another anniversary in the history of China-Pakistan relations. The formal diplomatic relationship was established on that date in 1951, but the history of the relationship goes back thousands of years, to the time when ancient Chinese traders traveled to Europe via what is now Pakistan. Pakistan was an important station on the ancient Silk Route. And more than 2,000 years ago, famous Chinese monks such as Fa Xian and Xuan Zang... The Crown Prince of Riyadh vs. the Crown Prince of Jihad: Al-Qaeda Responds to Mohammed Bin Salman’s Reforms by Jesse Morton and Amarnath Amarasingam Yemeni forces advanced farther into southern al Hudaydah governorate with support from the UAE, operating as part of the Saudi-led coalition. The objective is likely to secure the road running through al Tuhayta town to Zabid, north of Hays. This will position coalition-backed forces for a future offensive against al Hudaydah port city. Tomas Padgett-Perez writes that this renewed offensive may also hurt efforts to renew peace talks, especially as the al Houthi leadership moves to consolidate its control in Sana’a. mapping
https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/270195/trump-truman-and-israel-michael-ledeen
Daniel Henninger writes: The Iran nuclear deal is just that—a deal Mr. Obama did with the mullahs, Russia, Germany, France, the U.K. and China, with no formal instrument of ratification. But to listen to its defenders, you’d think it was the Ten Commandments. - Wall Street Journal
Eugene Kontorovich writes: By ignoring the armistice line today, the U.S. is showing that it attaches no legal significance to this outdated demarcation. Having an embassy that straddles the Green Line means recognizing as Israel’s capital a unified Jerusalem that includes the Old City and other eastern areas. It means categorically rejecting the notion that Israel has no sovereign claims across the Green Line. - Wall Street Journal
Rep. Keith Rothfus writes: Israel and her friends are celebrating the 70th anniversary of the country’s founding on Monday. Since 1948, the Israeli people have established a prosperous and democratic state in their ancestral homeland. Israel’s thriving existence is a fact, not something to be negotiated. - Washington Examiner
Latest Moves Show Trump Grasps The Realities Of The Middle East
by Russell A. Berman via The Hill During the past week, U.S. policy in the Middle East has taken on a sharper profile due to the coincidence of two major events. On May 8, President Trump announced the withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as “the Iran deal." Less than a week later, on Monday, the American embassy opened in Jerusalem.
The Russian-Israeli-Iranian conundrum in Syria
BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR Moscow is playing a clever game of diplomacy and managing to maintain ties with all the major players
Afghan military identifies 7 provincial capitals ‘under pressure’
The Ministry of Defense identified six of the seven provincial centers that are threatened by the Taliban as Farah City, Faizabad in Badakhshan, Tarin Kot in Uruzgan, Kunduz City, Maimana in Faryab, and Pul-i-Khumri in Baghlan. The seventh city is likely Ghazni City or Lashkar Gah. Taliban’s 2018 offensive encompasses all regions of Afghanistan The Taliban appears to maintain the initiative throughout Afghanistan, while the Afghan military is forced to react to Taliban offensives, such as the latest incursion into Farah City.
U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
Taliban's 2018 Offensive Encompasses All Regions of Afghanistan By Bill Roggio, RealClearDefense: “The Taliban’s 2018 offensive, which it calls Al Khandaq Jihadi operations, has targeted Afghan government forces in nearly all of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.”
Seize This Moment for Afghan Peace Talks
// Johnny Walsh In spite of recent attacks, the Taliban has signaled willingness to bend from its hardline past. The Trump administration should take advantage of the opportunity
Taliban launches coordinated assault on Farah City
The assault on Farah City should put to rest claims by the US military that the Taliban is desperate and losing ground in Afghanistan. Farah has been under threat for months.
Aparna Pande writes: It is often easier to speak truth to power when you are no longer holding a position in the government. However, the frankness with which former Pakistani prime minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif has lately been speaking out on issues ailing Pakistan is to be commended. - Hudson Institute
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