In his first interview with a U.S. news organization since withdrawing the resignation he made under Saudi pressure in November, Mr. Hariri also told The Wall Street Journal that he was open to Hezbollah continuing to participate in the government following elections slated for May. - Wall Street Journal
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The Pakistan Conundrum
Richard Haass thinks the US aid cutoff is misguided, though even a transactional relationship is impossible. Mubarak-era general to run against Egypt’s Sisi
A close ally of former President Hosni Mubarak, Gen. Sami Anan, on Thursday announced his candidacy in Egypt’s upcoming presidential elections. Anan, who served as Egypt’s armed forces chief of staff under Mubarak from 2005 to 2011, was dismissed in August 2012 by then-President Mohammed Morsi. The first round of the elections is scheduled to take place between March 26 and March 28. An anonymous Egyptian source told the New Arab news website that Anan is supported by “Saudi circles,” although the Saudis are also largely supportive of current President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.Sisi's government is reportedly detaining Ahmed Shafik, a retired air force general widely regarded as Sisi’s most viable challenger, at a hotel in Cairo. Also on Thursday, an Egyptian court overturned a prison sentence and ordered a retrial for Mubarak’s former interior minister, Habib al-Adly, who was accused of killing protesters during the 2011 Arab Spring. Read More Tunisians fear another bread revolution Tunisians took to the streets to protest the government’s state budget and austerity measures, leading to violent clashes that raised concerns about a repeat of the bread riots of the 1980s. Nearly 800 detained in Tunisian protests Tunisian authorities announced today that about 800 people have been arrested following several nights of anti-austerity protests across the country. Tunisia’s Interior Ministry spokesman Khalifa Chibani said 778 protesters were detained, including 151 on Thursday, for acts of violence during the demonstrations against tax hikes amid rising prices. Tunisian troops were also deployed near the border with Algeria after police retreated when protesters burned down a regional security headquarters. Read More Widespread protests force Tunisian army deployment The army will be protecting government installations, following an incident in which protesters burned a security headquarters near the Algerian border, prompting police to flee. US killed three ‘key’ AQAP leaders in Yemen CENTCOM identified the AQAP operatives who were killed as "key Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leaders." Their responsibilities included "external operations facilitator," an operative who paves the way for attacks outside of Yemen, an arms facilitator, and a member of its proselytizing council. Tunisian protesters burned down a regional national security headquarters near the Algerian border, prompting authorities to send in troops after police retreated, witnesses said, as unrest over prices and taxes raged on nationwide. - Reuters
The 'Indo-Pacific' — Redrawing the Map to Counter China
President Donald Trump, national security advisor H.R. McMaster and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have begun using the term “Indo-Pacific” in recent months to refer to the region that extends from the west coast of the U.S. to the west coast of India. For decades previously, American leaders had called this swath of the globe the “Asia-Pacific,” or more recently as the “Indo-Asia-Pacific.” As Rear Admiral (ret.) Paul Becker explains, "The new turn of phrases is significant, and it calls for strategic communications practices to reinforce this strategic concept." Becker says the shift reflects the Trump administration's acknowledgement of the following:
Pakistan’s main opposition party allies with ‘Taliban seminary’ BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf and Darul Uloom Haqqania have agreed on an alliance on 'ideological' grounds, presenting a new threat to secular forces Senior Pakistani officials warned that the U.S. suspension of security aid announced last week will push their country closer to China, Washington’s main rival for influence in Asia, as regional alliances realign. - Wall Street Journal U.S. commanders have launched an investigation into video footage that appears to show an American service member firing into the cab of a civilian truck as the two vehicles pass on a road in Afghanistan, an action that could have violated the military’s rules of engagement and may hamper the alliance with the Afghan government. - Politico Pamela Falk writes: Ending the 16-year conflict in Afghanistan has been fraught with trouble for two U.S. presidents and the leaders of its allied governments. Now the Trump administration is trying to get United Nations help, after reversing course on campaign promises to end the $700 billion conflict. - The Hill Pakistan frees jihadist leader behind deadly uprising Sufi Mohammed was responsible for the Taliban uprising in Swat and the peace agreement that put jihadists in control of a significant area of Pakistan from 2007 to 2009.
Pakistan has stopped sharing key intelligence with the US in the first sign that Washington’s decision to suspend military aid to Islamabad could hamper its war effort in Afghanistan. - Financial Times
al Qaeda network and Iran.
CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, military capabilities, and regional conflicts closely. 2018 Forecast: U.S. Faces Converging Threats By Katherine Zimmerman and Emily Estelle The United States faces significant threats from the global strengthening of the Salafi-jihadi movement, the collapse of states in Africa and the Middle East, and the convergence of local wars with regional and global conflicts. The combination of these trends could rapidly and seriously harm American interests abroad, especially in understudied areas in Africa, in 2018. The Critical Threats Projectat the American Enterprise Institute provides forward-leaning insight into the complex threats from Iran and the Salafi-jihadi movement that confront the United States today. The Salafi-jihadi movement, which includes both al Qaeda and ISIS, will survive ISIS’s territorial losses in Iraq and Syria and will continue insinuating itself in local conflicts to build a popular support base. Salafi-jihadi groups operate across the Muslim world but have notably reemerged in mainland Egypt and are establishing themselves in Bangladesh. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb developed the capability to conduct attacks from the Gulf of Guinea to the Mediterranean in 2016 and is focused on building its base in the Sahel, which will continue to grow in the next year. Salafi-jihadi groups will use Libya as a regional hub with an increasing focus on Egypt. A premature drawdown of UN-backed African Union peacekeeping troops in Somalia could enable al Shabaab’s reexpansion into southern and central Somalia. The continuation of civil wars in Syria and Yemen will enable al Qaeda to further enmesh itself within these populations, and al Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban will exploit security gaps in Afghanistan. The Salafi-jihadi movement will also become more prominent in South Asia, where al Qaeda and ISIS compete for influence. The collapse of states that began during the 2011 Arab Spring jeopardizes both weak states and their stronger neighbors, including several large states that could undergo destabilizing transitions in 2018. Current failed states—Yemen, Libya, Mali, Somalia, Syria, and Afghanistan—will remain unstable and in need of international support in the next year. In Africa, insecurity emanating from failed states pressures weak states like Tunisia, Niger, and now Kenya. These vulnerable states require ongoing international support to stave off collapse. Regional powerhouses like Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and Ethiopia, which provide crucial security, are themselves at risk of government collapse due to succession crises or popular unrest. Similarly, the war in Yemen has become a cross-border war with Saudi Arabia and is now drawing in Oman, adding to the regional disorder already wrought by crises in Syria and Iraq. Ongoing humanitarian emergencies and local conflicts would magnify the impact of these worst-case scenarios. The consequences include the expansion of Salafi-jihadi groups, as well as mass migration or humanitarian crises that will further strain the international community. Local conflicts are converging with regional and global struggles to the benefit of American enemies and adversaries, including Iran and Russia, and the Salafi-jihadi movement. This convergence will continue through the next year, especially as Iran and Russia consolidate their gains in Syria. The Saudi-Iranian regional conflict has overtaken the Yemen war, which began among Yemeni actors. Russia could seek to coopt international negotiations to resolve the Yemeni conflict, drawing on its Syria playbook, in order to secure positions near the Bab al Mandab Strait, a key maritime chokepoint. Russia is also negotiating a military agreement with Egypt and pressing for greater influence in Libya, heralding a significant leap toward reconstituting Russian influence in the Middle East lost at the end of the Cold War. A competition for influence between Gulf States in East Africa will add to instability in the region, as will a proxy fight between regional rivals in Libya. Regionalized conflicts like those in Syria, Yemen, and Libya are fertile environments for Salafi-jihadi groups, which capitalize on local grievances to gain popular support. The Critical Threats Project warned of these trends over the course of the past year and will continue to produce prescient analysis of developments related to Iran and the Salafi-jihadi movement in 2018. The Critical Threats Project. U.S., PAKISTAN: U.S. Wants 'Decisive Action' From Pakistan Against Terrorism By James LaPorta, UPI: “The Pentagon has clarified what the United States expects of Pakistan after suspending the delivery of security funds and miiltary equipment, and what needs to happen for delivery of both to start back up..” Pakistan’s FATA reforms stuck amid civil-military friction BY F.M. SHAKIL Abolition of the century-old Frontier Crime Regulation, responsible for gross violations of tribals' human rights, is being held up
In public, Saudi Arabia has been gloating over the spate of anti-government protests in arch-nemesis Iran. In private, Saudi teeth are chattering. The dominant feeling among policymakers must surely be that protests in Iran could be replicated – maybe even on a greater scale – inside Saudi Arabia. - Forbes
Now that religious control is coming under its sharpest challenge in modern times. Saudi leaders, spurred by the need to diversify the oil-dependent economy, are moving faster than any of their predecessors to unravel the legacy of Islamic conservatism that had taken hold of the country four decades ago and shaped the education of generations. - Wall Street Journal The eight-month-old TV interview had taken on a new significance: Violent protests were spreading across Iran. It’s not clear whether Saudi Arabia helped stir them up, as the Islamic Republic’s leaders claimed. What is clear is that the de facto Saudi ruler has made several regional moves against Iran -- and has yet to score a win. - Bloomberg
Iran has reopened an investigation into the death of its former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, according to members of his family who say his body had unusually high radiation levels. - The Guardian
Thomas Friedman writes: The biggest question about the recent protests in Iran — combined with the recent lifting of religious restrictions in Saudi Arabia — is whether together they mark the beginning of the end of the hard-right puritanical turn that the Muslim world took in 1979, when, as Middle East expert Mamoun Fandy once observed, “Islam lost its brakes” and the whole world felt it. - New York Times Tunisian police arrest 200 protesters as prime minister urges calm Tunisian police have arrested at least 200 protesters on charges of carrying weapons and causing material damage to property, Tunisia’s Interior Ministry said today. Dozens of others were wounded in a second night of clashes between protesters and security forces. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed called for calm on Tuesday as fresh protests broke out across the capital and several other towns, one day after violent demonstrations left one person dead. Tunisians took to the streets on Monday in response to the government’s austerity plan to raise taxes starting Jan. 1 amid rising prices. The Popular Front, the country's main opposition party, has urged protesters to continue until the government scraps the “unjust” 2018 budget. Read More Tense protests have erupted across Tunisia since a new budget took effect on Jan. 1 that raised taxes on gasoline, phone cards, internet usage, hotel rooms and even fruits and vegetables. The demonstrations have claimed at least one life, and have revived worries about the fragile political situation in Tunisia, the only country to emerge from the Arab Spring uprisings with the semblance of a stable democracy. - New York Times A Jewish school on a Tunisian island was attacked late on Tuesday as police battled violent unrest elsewhere in the country, arresting more than 200 people, witnesses and the interior ministry said. - Reuters Tunisia’s prime minister promised Tuesday to crack down on rioters after violent protests over price hikes left one person dead and raised fears of broader unrest in the country that was the birthplace of the Arab Spring. - Associated Press Libyan militias, aided by U.S. Special Forces and airstrikes, drove out Islamic State militants from their stronghold of Sirte in December 2016, ending their brutal rule and aspirations for an alternate capital in North Africa. A year later, this sprawling coastal city remains deeply scarred physically and psychologically. - Washington Post
Egypt’s election commission on Monday said voting in the country’s presidential election will be held over several days in March, with a possible runoff in April, setting in motion a campaign that so far has only one eligible contender with any chance of victory: President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. - Wall Street Journal A 55-year-old man has died after a protest over government austerity measures in Tunisia, the country's state news agency Tunis Afrique Presse (TAP) has reported. - Al Jazeera
Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, considered to be a successor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, faces protests and possible criminal prosecutions in Germany for his widespread executions of Iranians, which took place while he was the country’s justice minister. - Jerusalem Post
President Hassan Rouhani of Iran lashed out at his hard-line opponents on Monday, saying the protesters who have shaken Iran in recent weeks objected not just to the bad economy but also to widespread corruption and the clerical government’s restrictive policies on personal conduct and freedoms. - New York Times An Iranian reformist lawmaker said Tuesday that some 3,700 people were arrested in the days of protests and unrest that roiled Iran over the past two weeks, offering a far higher number than authorities previously released. - Associated Press Jon Gambrell writes: Without drastic change in people’s livelihoods, unrest over the economy will only intensify, becoming perhaps the greatest challenge for the Islamic Republic as it nears its fourth decade of existence and a new era of leadership looms. - Associated Press Maryam Rajavi writes: The protests in Iran send a cogent message: The clerical regime stands on shaky ground, and the Iranian people are unwavering in their quest to bring it down. - Wall Street Journal
Pakistan Will Try to Make Trump Pay // C. Christine Fair
The country has banked on being treated as too dangerous to fail. But this time could be different.
The Pentagon on Monday announced it was withholding $900 million in security assistance for Pakistan. - The Hill
A Pakistani court has ordered the release of a radical anti-U.S. cleric who went to Afghanistan with thousands of volunteers to help the Taliban fight against Americans after the 2001 U.S.-led invasion, a defense lawyer said Tuesday. - Associated Press Pakistan is being further pushed into China’s embrace as a consequence of the U.S. State Department’s plan to cut military aid to Islamabad, analysts agree. - Defense News Richard G. Olson writes: While perhaps it is emotionally satisfying to penalize a country that has supported American enemies in Afghanistan for the past 16 years, the [Trump] administration’s approach is unlikely to work. Pakistan has greater leverage over us than many imagine. - New York Times
Pence to begin Middle East trip next week
The White House announced Monday that Vice President Mike Pence will embark on his Middle East tour next week. Initially set for December, the visit was delayed amid a close vote on tax reform in Congress and widespread protests that swept the region following President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Pence is set to visit Egypt, Jordan and Israel from Jan. 20 to Jan. 23. He is expected to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Pence will discuss “ways to work together to fight terrorism and improve our national security” with the three leaders, according to spokeswoman Alyssa Farah. Read More
Iran-Hamas Rapprochement: the Current Situation
In recent months there has been a rapprochement between Iran and Hamas, after approximately three years of difficulties caused by Hamas' reservations regarding the Syrian regime and the removal of the movement's offices from Syria... Read moreFull document in PDF format
President Donald Trump kicked off the New Year by putting Pakistan on blast, accusing the country of returning US aid with “nothing but lies & deceit” while continuing to provide the Afghan Taliban a “safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan.”
Trump made the comments on Jan. 1 in a scathing tweet. The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more! It is unclear what sparked Trump’s harsh words toward Pakistan. Trump’s comments came just two days after Hafiz Seed, the leader of terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba and its charitable front, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, was photographed with Walid Abu Ali, the ambassador for the Palestinian government, at a conference on Palestine and Kashmir in the Pakistani city of Rawalpindi [photograph below]. The Palestinian government recalled Ali after the photograph was disseminated and described the meeting as a “mistake.” From Dawn: “… the [Palestinian] Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates considered the participation of our ambassador in Pakistan in a mass rally in solidarity with Jerusalem, held […] in the presence of individuals accused of supporting terrorism is an unintended mistake, but not justified.” Palestinian ambassador Walid Abu Ali (left) chats with Lashkar-e-Taiba emir Hafiz Saeed. Saeed is listed by the US government as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist and his Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jamaat-ud-Dawa are listed as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Saeed is allied with both the Taliban and al Qaeda, and is responsible for multiple terrorist attacks in India and Afghanistan. In December, Pakistan released Saeed from house arrest, much to the dismay of the US government. Pakistan’s duplicity with terrorist groups and its relationship with the US is well documented [see Pakistan: Friend or Foe in the Fight Against Terrorism?]. The Trump administration, like the Bush and Obama administrations before it, has attempted to flatter and cajole Pakistan into changing its stripes and ending its special relationship with jihadist groups such as the Afghan Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Harakat-ul-Mujahideen. The Pakistani government has continued to insist its resolve to fight against terrorists “is unmatched in the world” while denouncing the designation of established terrorist groups like Hizbul Mujahideen. The Trump administration, which has redoubled efforts to defeat the Afghan Taliban, appears to have quickly tired of Pakistan’s double dealing. There are numerous options for the administration to punish Pakistan, including trade, economic and travel restrictions, diplomatic demarches, and military options. If Trump is truly serious about hitting back at Pakistan, expect the US to ramp up drone strikes against jihadists, and not just in the tribal areas. Baluchistan province, where the last emir of the Taliban was killed, remains the prime support zone for the Afghan Taliban. https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/01/trump-blasts-pakistan-for-its-lies-deceit.php
Do The Palestinians Really Want Their Own State? by Josef Joffe via The American Interest The answer has to be: no, not really. They could have had a state 80 years ago, and then again and again. They kept saying no. Alex Joffe and Asaf Romirowsky write: The Trump administration’s freeze on funds for Unrwa is a first step in breaking the Mideast stalemate. This must be followed by detailed plans to shift funds and responsibilities from Unrwa to the Palestinian Authority, with equally detailed mechanisms for oversight and auditing. - Wall Street Journal
What's Driving Iran's Protests?
Hassan Hakimian suggests that reformers have failed to manage rising economic expectations, particularly among young people.
Analysis. By Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs.
Iran, during late December 2017 and early January 2018, saw the first upsurge of widespread protests in civil society since 2009. However, there is little firm evidence that the Iranian governance structures around the ruling clerics are about to undergo sudden, unanticipated change in the immediate future. But there are signs in Iranian society of profound evolutionary change; signs which could point to danger in the foreseeable future. The danger, expressed by the protests, is the result of improving economic performance in Iran, married to an even more rapid rise in societal expectations, particularly after a period of gradually worsening personal economic fortunes. The current Government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hoseini-Khamene‘i and Pres. Hojjat ol-Eslam Hasan Fereidun Rouhani is facing some of the same factors faced by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1978-79: • Social and economic expectations rising more rapidly than can be delivered (today largely caused by the expectation that the signing of the so-called “nuclear deal” would lead to immediate improvements in life); • The growing education and restlessness of young Iranians, who now dominate the demographic pattern; and • The perception among many educated younger Iranians that they are excluded from participation in governance (today by the reality that government is the province of the Shi’a clerics). But it should be stressed that broad, popular internal support for Iranian unity and Persian historical and civilizational values may be higher now than at any time since the fall of the Shah in 1979. So the signs may be good for the nation-state, but less positive for the governing structures. Even so, the belief in the prospect for popular revolt in Iran, expressed by Western (particularly US) media and government statements, is premature. History has shown that, when external pressures are applied to Iran, Iranians tend to put national unity ahead of any distaste they may have for their government. That is not to say that unscheduled governmental change is currently impossible, but rather that — unlike 1978-79 — the conditions are not propitious for transformational change. There are a significant number of challenges which face the clerical governing structures at this time: 1. The health of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hoseini-Khamene‘i remains poor1 and it is possible that he will not be able to remain in office much longer; 2. There is infighting, or more naked competition, at many levels within the clerical power structure, including within the clerics’ own Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC: Pasdaran), not least over and flowing from the question of succession to the position of Supreme Leader, and what this could do to the shape of governance, and the holders of key posts. There is also the question, for example, of whether or not the “reformist” faction, now represented by Pres. Rouhani, will be blamed for failing to deliver what the public expected, and if this would lead to a collapse of the reformist position, giving an opening to hard-line clerics, which could in turn lead to even greater public disenchantment; 3. The fact that the economy has begun to rally — with the easing of international sanctions following the July 14, 2015, “nuclear deal”: the P5+1 (People’s Republic of China [PRC], France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the European Union (EU), and Iran accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — created a sense of “rising expectations” within the public which the Government cannot meet in terms of satisfying material and economic demands; 4. Continued international uncertainty about the future of the JCPOA.
Sam Heller writes: Now the Trump administration has settled on Geneva as a way to make a whole out of the disconnected parts of U.S. Syria policy. What’s more, they are counting on this policy means — in conjunction with other theoretical leverage, including funds for Syrian reconstruction and America’s military presence in Syria’s post-Islamic State northeast — to deliver ultra-ambitious ends, up to and including regime change. - War on the Rocks
PUNJABI MASTER TERRORIST SAEED SEEKS HIGH OFFICE IN PAKISTAN & AMERICA STEWS IN AFGHANISTAN1/4/2018 U.S. to withhold all security assistance to Pakistan. Editorial: The U.S. decision last week to suspend military aid to Pakistan is not only defensible but justified. It’s also unlikely to affect Pakistan’s covert aid to Islamist militants unless it’s accompanied by a more comprehensive and determined strategy. - Bloomberg Ishaan Tharoor writes: Unlike many of the president's other stances on foreign affairs, though, Trump's exasperation with Pakistan is widely shared in Washington's establishment policy circles. - Washington Post The New Afghanistan Strategy: Some Questions By Anthony Cowden, RealClearDefense: “An analysis of the current U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, using this definition of strategy as an analytical framework, would be an interesting academic exercise. However, Afghanistan is a wicked problem ... ” Terror chief Saeed plans to run against Nawaz Sharif in election BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID Internationally designated terrorist Hafiz Saeed plans to stand against former PM Nawaz Sharif's in the next election, then retaliate against the US |
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