BY F.M. SHAKIL
Co-operation between the PPP and PTI parties would have been laughed at just weeks ago; now they are committed to a 'combined opposition' assault on the PML(N) ahead of Senate elections in March.
By Richard N. Haass, The Strategist (ASPI): “ ... From the U.S. government’s perspective, the state of current relations with Pakistan is remarkably similar: when we support Pakistan, they do things we don’t like; and when we sanction Pakistan, they do things we don’t like.”
The last five US counterterrorism strikes have all taken place inside Pakistan's Kurram tribal agency. The Afghan Taliban, including the Haqqani Network, is known to operate inside Kurram and use it as a base to attack Afghanistan.
- Widespread protests in Tunisia waned following demonstrations on the anniversary of the 2011 Jasmine Revolution on January 14. The Tunisian government took steps to lessen the burden of unpopular austerity measures on poor and unemployed citizens. The recent protests mobilized Tunisians on a broader scale than other bouts of unrest since 2011, however, and the potential for renewed unrest remains. [Read Emily Estelle’s warning update, “Economic Protests Rattle Tunisia on the Anniversary of Revolution.”]
- Iran will likely oppose any U.S. or Western efforts to alter the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). President Donald Trump warned on January 12 that he will no longer waive sanctions lifted under the deal if Congress and Europe cannot resolve the deal’s major defects. [Read Frederick W. Kagan’s analysis of President Trump’s previous decisions on the JCPOA, “Confusion over the Iran deal."]
- A Saudi-led coalition campaign against the al Houthi movement in central Yemen may strengthen al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Coalition airstrikes on al Houthi positions in al Bayda governorate in central Yemen may inadvertently benefit AQAP proxies, which fight alongside local tribal forces in this area. [See Maher Farrukh’s recent map of the active fronts in Yemen, “Yemen Frontlines: January 2018.”]
CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.