“The spike in reported Iranian losses this February -- after the drawdown of its surge forces and the supposed ceasefire -- also raises a number of questions. Did Tehran simply delay the reporting of combat deaths that occurred at the height of the surge in order to soften their domestic impact? Or did the increased losses result from military factors such as a change in the rules of engagement or an increase in the tempo of operations as ceasefire negotiations intensified, perhaps to create leverage over the rebels? The answer is not clear at this time, though the ongoing Iranian death notices -- with three more reported this week alone -- show that Qods Force and IRGC Ground Forces personnel remain very much in the fight. All that can be said with confidence at this time is that Tehran's strategy of using proxy warfare to manage risk and limit exposure in Syria has succeeded thus far. Should widespread fighting resume, the future success of this strategy will depend on Iran's continued ability to find Shiite proxies to serve as cannon fodder -- to keep its own losses down -- and Russia's cost/benefit calculus. This will also make it difficult for the manpower-short Assad regime and its casualty-averse foreign allies to retake territory far removed from the Syrian rump state, which now controls the coast and most of the country's urban spine in the west. Therefore, Syria's current partition into areas held by the regime, the rebels, and the Islamic State is likely to persist for a long time to come. This, however, serves Tehran's interest: that Syria remain in a permanent state of crisis or civil war, in need of continued Iranian support.”
“Iranian Casualties in Syria and the Strategic Logic of Intervention” (Ali Alfoneh and Michael Eisenstadt, Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
“The spike in reported Iranian losses this February -- after the drawdown of its surge forces and the supposed ceasefire -- also raises a number of questions. Did Tehran simply delay the reporting of combat deaths that occurred at the height of the surge in order to soften their domestic impact? Or did the increased losses result from military factors such as a change in the rules of engagement or an increase in the tempo of operations as ceasefire negotiations intensified, perhaps to create leverage over the rebels? The answer is not clear at this time, though the ongoing Iranian death notices -- with three more reported this week alone -- show that Qods Force and IRGC Ground Forces personnel remain very much in the fight. All that can be said with confidence at this time is that Tehran's strategy of using proxy warfare to manage risk and limit exposure in Syria has succeeded thus far. Should widespread fighting resume, the future success of this strategy will depend on Iran's continued ability to find Shiite proxies to serve as cannon fodder -- to keep its own losses down -- and Russia's cost/benefit calculus. This will also make it difficult for the manpower-short Assad regime and its casualty-averse foreign allies to retake territory far removed from the Syrian rump state, which now controls the coast and most of the country's urban spine in the west. Therefore, Syria's current partition into areas held by the regime, the rebels, and the Islamic State is likely to persist for a long time to come. This, however, serves Tehran's interest: that Syria remain in a permanent state of crisis or civil war, in need of continued Iranian support.”
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