Russia finally convenes its long-awaited congress of Syrian groups in Sochi this week amid widespread uncertainty that some of the main guests will even show up. For Moscow, the two-day Black Sea confab starting Monday represents an ambitious gambit to help end the seven-year war, consolidate its strategic gains and begin to extricate its troops. But it could just as well turn into a diplomatic embarrassment if key groups stay away amid rampant accusations that Russia is trying to undermine UN-backed peace talks in Geneva to protect its ally Bashar al-Assad and its own interests in the country.
Some 1,600 people have finally received invitations to the event after months of arguments with Turkey and Iran, with Ankara in particular bitterly opposing the presence of Kurdish forces that it views as a national security threat. Kurdish factions in turn have vowed not to attend in protest of Turkey’s ongoing assault on the Kurdish-held Afrin border region. The main Western-backed opposition group, the Syrian Negotiations Commission, is still undecided. And the Donald Trump administration is signaling that it may skip the proceedings despite being invited as an observer. A State Department official today told Al-Monitor, “As our focus remains on supporting Geneva and substantive progress from those negotiations, the UN must have full discretion when deciding whether separate events contribute to the Geneva process.”
The breakdown in those UN-led talks paradoxically is one of the main reasons for the Sochi forum in the first place. Diplomats are wrapping up a ninth round of talks today in Vienna with little progress to report on plans for elections and a new constitution. Meanwhile, government and opposition representatives met separately with UN special envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura.
Iraqi Shiite parties have formed four main coalitions for the upcoming parliamentary elections, but they are expected to join forces after the vote to take advantage of their collective clout.