The two sides appear to be on a collision course as Iran penetrates further into a hollowed-out Syria and Israel tries to frustrate that effort.
- The current status quo, where Israel limits itself to enforcing its publicly stated red lines in Syria, is likely to continue. However, new events that change the intentions of the parties could lead to miscalculation and uncontrollable escalation.
- Iran’s strategy since signing the 2015 nuclear agreement was to trade short-term nuclear weapons capability for regional expansion and ballistic missile build up. Iran came away from the deal with an option to pursue a nuclear weapon in the future, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps also began pursuing a pan-Shia axis throughout the Arab world.
- Some of the questions that will determine how the Israeli-Iranian conflict unfolds: Will the Islamic Republic shift course and put a damper on its malign regional activities and in particular, its growing military program in Syria aimed at Israel? Will Israel be able to prevent the Iranian build up without sparking a war?
By Thomas Buonomo, RealClearDefense: “It is highly improbable that Iran will compromise on demands from the U.S. and its allies that it halt the expansion of its ballistic missile capabilities or extend critical provisions of the current nuclear agreement.”