John Hannah | Senior Counselor
(Asia Times) The move to list the Guards as a terrorist entity could see factions from all sides close ranks and back them.
The Donald Trump administration is preparing to transfer precision-guided munitions to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates amid escalating tensions with Iran in an end-run around Congress, Democrats warned Thursday. Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., who has held up the sale of more than 120,000 precision-guided munitions over the two countries' intervention in Yemen since last year, warned defense contractors against potentially exporting weapons with invalid licenses. Anti-war activists speculate that the Trump administration may justify the move by citing a threat from Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen. The effort comes as the Wall Street Journal reports that the White House and Pentagon agreed on Thursday to send up to 3,000 additional troops to the region to support submarines, planes, drones and anti-missile batteries in the first wave of a possible larger deployment.
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ICYMI: Following last week’s tensions between the US and Iran, revisit Ken Pollack’sblog series, “Pushback: Countering Iran in an evolving Middle East,” in which he details what a more confrontational US policy toward Iran could look like. Pollack fleshes out his ideas on how best to push back on Iran, beginning with a broad outline of the strategy and closing with a deeper look at its specific facets: the optimal US policy toward Syria, Iraq, the nuclear agreement, and regime change. Learn more here.
With US-Iran tensions at an all-time high, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in a precarious situation. In an AEIdeas blog, Nicholas Carl explains that for both domestic and regional reasons, the Tehran regime needs to push back against Trump with strength and resolve. At the same time, Tehran must assuage European concerns over Iranian aggression in Syria, Yemen, and beyond and keep key European nations on board with the nuclear deal. The Iranian regime is juggling these interests, and one wrong move could be catastrophic. Finish reading here.
By Shlomo Ben-Ami, The Strategist (ASPI): "Eight years after the Arab Spring, dreams of democracy in the Arab world have been dashed by the harsh reality of autocracy, corruption and military rule. Yet Algeria and Sudan, neither of which was swept up in the 2011 turmoil, are now trying their luck at challenging the often-surreptitious powers that be—what Algerian demonstrators back in 1988 dubbed le pouvoir (‘the power’). Will Arab democracy movements fare any better this time?"
By Austin Bay, Strategy Page: "Though loath to admit it, the Iranian regime recognizes its conventional military inferiority compared to its many adversaries, particularly Israel, the U.S. and Turkey. So, the ayatollahs use proxy war, covert attacks and terror strikes to rattle their adversaries and frustrate the great powers (like the U.S.) that seek regional stability."
Iran's nonstate partners are emerging as central players in the escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. They pursue a range of activities that destabilize the Middle East and undermine U.S. interests. But RAND experts warn against treating these groups as a monolith. They aren't all Iranian proxies. And there are subtle but important differences in their ties to the regime. Understanding these distinctions is key to tracking bad behavior back to Iran. It may also help inform U.S. responses. Read more »
David Albright and Andrea Stricker write:With tensions increasing in the Middle East, the current situation, on the surface, does not appear to favor negotiations for a new deal. Moreover, the United States is demanding that Iran meet a dozen conditions relating not only to the nuclear and missile issues, but also to its malign regional activities and support for terror. Iran appears more focused on its own efforts to isolate the United States and threaten (and possibly carry out) asymmetric retaliation for the re-imposed sanctions. However, neither Iran nor the United States appear to want a crisis to grow into a military confrontation. With this dynamic, new negotiations may be the most advantageous path forward for both sides. – Institute for Science and International Security
Behnam Ben Taleblu | Senior Fellow