“All these challenges notwithstanding, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, along with their allies, especially Turkey, will likely continue relying on funding and supporting armed opposition groups to try to influence the situation on the ground, while simultaneously pressing forward with efforts to convince Russia of the benefits of a post-Assad future in Syria to be achieved by a political agreement guaranteed by Washington and Moscow. But Saudi Arabia will not agree to an outcome if the new political order in Damascus does not significantly weaken the grip of Tehran and Hizballah over the Syrian government. This means that Riyadh and its allies will be attempting to go both over Tehran’s head, by appealing directly to Moscow and Washington, and simultaneously behind Iran’s back through covert programs designed to change the military equation on the ground to ensure that the current regime cannot remain in place if the conflict in Syria is to be resolved. If this cannot be achieved in Geneva or elsewhere through diplomatic and political means, the war in Syria is likely to continue for quite some time.”
“What’s at Stake for the Gulf Arab States in Syria?” (Hussein Ibish, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington)
“All these challenges notwithstanding, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, along with their allies, especially Turkey, will likely continue relying on funding and supporting armed opposition groups to try to influence the situation on the ground, while simultaneously pressing forward with efforts to convince Russia of the benefits of a post-Assad future in Syria to be achieved by a political agreement guaranteed by Washington and Moscow. But Saudi Arabia will not agree to an outcome if the new political order in Damascus does not significantly weaken the grip of Tehran and Hizballah over the Syrian government. This means that Riyadh and its allies will be attempting to go both over Tehran’s head, by appealing directly to Moscow and Washington, and simultaneously behind Iran’s back through covert programs designed to change the military equation on the ground to ensure that the current regime cannot remain in place if the conflict in Syria is to be resolved. If this cannot be achieved in Geneva or elsewhere through diplomatic and political means, the war in Syria is likely to continue for quite some time.”
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