Intense fighting between rival factions of the Taliban led by Mullah Akhtar Mansoor and Mullah Mohammad Rasool in the Shindand district of Herat led to roughly 100 deaths as of Thursday (Guardian). This further complicates the Afghan peace talks in which four countries – the United States, China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan – are seeking to involve Taliban officials in negotiations with Afghan government officials. To date, no one from Mullah Mansoor’s leading faction has expressed the intention or desire to do so because their demands, including a complete withdrawal of U.S.-NATO forces from Afghanistan, are insupportable for the United States and coalition partners. Since the announcement of the death of the group’s founder Mullah Mohammad Omar in July 2015, the group has been plagued by infighting, yet also control the most territory in Afghanistan since 2001.
Brig. Gen. Wilson Shoffner, deputy chief of staff for communications for U.S. forces in Afghanistan, said on Thursday that the United States sees three distinct Taliban factions forming in the southern Helmand province, none of which are loyal to Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansoor (VOA). Shoffner said, “It will be very interesting to see where the revenue goes amongst those three groups and where their loyalties lie," especially as the start of poppy harvesting season – the source of heroine and, according to the U.S. military, half the Taliban’s revenue – begins soon.
Additionally, the branch of the Islamic State (IS) based in the Khorasan region on the AfPak border has been relegated to one district in Nangarhar province, down from four or five districts in February. Brig. Gen. Shoffner estimates that the number of IS fighters in Afghanistan is "probably on the lower end" of between 1,000 and 3,000 fighters. The decrease in fighters and controlled territory can be attributed to more U.S. airstrikes and clashes with the Taliban over access to money and personnel and ideological disagreements.