Aaron Friedberg writes: Rather than seeming to accept Beijing’s ceaseless happy-talk about “win-win cooperation,” democratic governments need to find ways to convey the fact that, despite its protestations of benign intent, China is engaged in activities on a massive scale that are aggressive, destabilizing, flout international norms, impose disproportionate costs on other societies, and threaten their long-term autonomy, prosperity and security. - War on the Rocks
Socialism to Blame for Venezuela’s Oil Production Drop
Daniel Di Martino, E21 Venezuela’s tragic famine and refugee crisis taking place despite the largest proven reserves of oil on the planet. Watching it play out on television is one thing. Living through the ways socialism pushes the middle class to poverty and the poor to starvation is another experience entirely. Although I was fortunate enough to leave Venezuela almost two years ago to come to the United States, not everyone has the chance to leave. Venezuela has become the latest experiment of socialism, and like all those before, it has resulted in famine and mass exodus. Read more here....
Walter Russell Mead writes: Temperamentally, Mr. Trump’s impulsive nature puts him at odds with the low-key norms of statesmanship upon which the European Union depends. Stylistically, his theatrical approach to politics strikes Europeans as both dangerous and unserious. But it is the deep ideological opposition between Mr. Trump’s worldview and the postwar European conception of statesmanship that converts this friction into a conflict threatening the Western alliance. - Wall Street Journal
To Reassure U.S. Allies in Asia, Admit Mutual Vulnerability With China
By Hugh White, War on the Rocks: “America does not admit that it is vulnerable to China’s strategic nuclear forces. That’s the clear message of the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review.” China Eyes Its Next Prize – the Mekong
By Elliot Brennan, The interpreter: “China’s growing control over the Mekong is a crucial component of immobilising sovereignty in mainland Southeast Asia.
Editorial: While President Trump focuses on trade and North Korea, China is aggressively building military outposts beyond its borders in the South China Sea. Beijing wants to push Washington out of the Indo-Pacific, and the Trump Administration and Congress may finally be developing a serious strategy to respond. - Wall Street Journal
China Truth and Consequences
By Graeme Dobell, The Strategist (ASPI): “A lot of ‘c’ words were tossed at China during the Shangri-La dialogue—collaboration and competition, coercion and consequences, challenges and choices. The dangers of combativeness. Dark conclusions about China’s militarization of the South China Sea.”
China’s actions for asserting and defending its maritime territorial and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims in the East China (ECS) and South China Sea (SCS) have heightened concerns among observers that China may be seeking to dominate or gain control of its near-seas region, meaning the ECS, the SCS, and the Yellow Sea. - USNI News
Air Force Reapers are now flying ISR missions from Poland (Air Force Times) The U.S. Air Force’s MQ-9 Reaper drone quietly started flights from Miroslawiec Air Base, Poland, in May, but the service isn’t saying exactly why. Russia has plans for its future nuclear subs, and it involves hypersonic missiles
(Defense News) Russia’s next generation of multipurpose nuclear submarines, reportedly known as the Husky class, will be armed with hypersonic missiles, with the lead boat slated for launch in 2027, according to an unidentified Russian defense industry official quoted by the TASS news agency on Thursday.
U.S. Missile Defense Seen Gaining Against Threat of Kim's ICBMs
By Anthony Capaccio, Bloomberg: “The U.S. network of ground-based interceptors intended to defend against an intercontinental ballistic missile fired from North Korea “achieved a number of major accomplishments” in 2017, according to the General Accountability Office.”
Editorial: Anyone who still thinks that world peace and order can be enforced from something called the United Nations might want to consider that Syria this week assumed the rotating presidency of the U.N.-backed Conference on Disarmament. That’s Syria as in Bashar Assad, as in sarin gas, as in barrel bombs dropped on innocent civilians. - Wall Street Journal
Ishaan Tharoor writes: The writing is now indisputably on the wall: The Syrian regime is going nowhere. Despite seven years of civil war, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Syrians, the flight of millions of refugees, the hollowing out of the nation's ancient cities and the horrific use of chemical weapons on civilians, President Bashar al-Assad remains in his post. - Washington Post Hassan Mneimneh writes: Russia is victorious in Syria. It has succeeded in rescuing the Damascus regime, its difficult yet valuable client, from what seemed to be an unavoidable demise. More importantly, it has leveraged the crisis management of the Syrian conflict to create a regional balance between seemingly incompatible powers — Israel, Turkey, and Iran. [...]It is thus positioned to strengthen its influence whether the tensions escalate or ease. - Washington Institute NORTH AFRICAN THREAT GAINS GROUND, RUSSIA GOES TO THE AFRICAN CONGO & BEIJING HOLDS ITS OWN AFRICOM5/25/2018 More female suicide bombers target Niger mosque Three suicide bombers, including two girls, targeted a mosque and a Quranic school in Diffa, Niger, on Monday. The three are believed to have been sent by Abubakr Shekau's Boko Haram faction. The Evolving Threat to U.S. National Security by Islamic Terrorist Organizations in North Africa By Robert C. Hodges, Small Wars Journal: “The United States is capable of countering the growing transnational threats presented by the evolving Islamic terrorist organizations in North Africa, however, it will require a dedicated push within the U.S. and a combined diplomatic, military, informational, and financial approach, engaging with the ruling governments in key partner nations.” American Special Operations forces are likely to be sharply cut in Africa as a result of a new Pentagon strategy that focuses on combating rising threats from Russia and China and, in turn, is driving a sweeping review of the nation’s elite commando missions. - New York Times Revitalizing U.S. Strategy in Nigeria to Address Boko Haram By Austin M. Duncan, Strategy Bridge: “If the recent surge in gray zone conflict literature underscores one thing, it is that the definition of victory is fleeting against a threat specializing in ambiguity.” Beijing Announces Inaugural China-Africa Defense Forum
// Abdi Latif Dahir Hosted by the Ministry of Defense, the June 26-July 10 event is just Beijing's latest effort to deepen ties with the continent.
In a Washington Post op-ed, Marc A. Thiessen argues that North Korea’s recent temper tantrum over US–South Korean military exercises and its threat to pull out of its upcoming summit with President Trump are signs that Trump’s North Korea strategy is working. Trump and his national security team have put Kim in a corner, offering him peace, security, and prosperity, but only if he first denuclearizes completely, verifiably, and irreversibly. Little wonder that North Korea is lashing out. Read more.
Khamenei threatens to resume nuclear enrichment unless Europe resists US
Iran's supreme leader has threatened to resume the country's uranium enrichment program unless Europe stands up to the Donald Trump administration's campaign to nix the 2015 nuclear deal. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei laid out his conditions for staying in the deal at a gathering of top officials Wednesday evening. These include protecting Iranian oil sales, banking and trade from US sanctions, along with a pledge not to pressure Iran to curb its missile program or its role in regional affairs. Khamenei also demanded that Europe condemn the United States at the United Nations Security Council. Read More bbc.co.uk The US is long overdue in confronting China on predatory trade policies, and the decision over the weekend, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, to back off on implementing penalties for China’s mercantilism was a step in the wrong direction, argues Derek Scissors in an AEIdeas blog. With a deal claimed to be in progress between the US and China, Treasury can now avoid decisive steps to prevent the People’s Republic of China from using investment to take trade secrets, erase our technology advantage, or harm national security. Read more here.
AEI ON THE HILL: China’s boom in wealth over the past four decades has provided the Chinese Communist Party with means to implement a large-scale military modernization initiative that will allow China to project power far beyond China’s borders. What can the US do to address this looming threat? In testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence this past Thursday, Dan Blumenthal identified some of China’s manifold military and political weaknesses. Access his prepared remarks here. AEI ON THE HILL: China’s boom in wealth over the past four decades has provided the Chinese Communist Party with means to implement a large-scale military modernization initiative that will allow China to project power far beyond China’s borders. What can the US do to address this looming threat? In testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence this past Thursday, Dan Blumenthal identified some of China’s manifold military and political weaknesses. Access his prepared remarks here.
What China's First Strategic Bomber Landing on Woody Island Means By Ankit Panda, The Diplomat: “In addition to permanently stationing military personnel on Woody Island, China has deployed J-11 fighters, HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles, YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missiles, and other materiels there.” Can America Meet the China Challenge in Southeast Asia?
By David Shambaugh, East Asia Forum: “The strategic sands are shifting in Southeast Asia, as China makes multiple moves while the United States seems on its back foot.” The World According to Trump and Xi By Brahma Chellaney, The Strategist (ASPI): “The world’s leading democracy, the United States, is looking increasingly like the world’s biggest and oldest surviving autocracy, China.” TURKEY: Turkey’s Triangular Quagmire
By Allyson Christy, Small Wars Journal: “Early in 2015 the United States-led coalition explicit to attacking Daesh elements in Syria continued, and yet Turkey only eventually contributed efforts for assisting targeting objectives. Counterinsurgency initiatives had not met with clear-cut and consistent support from Ankara.” Pompeo lays out ‘maximum pressure’ strategy on Iran
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday laid out the Donald Trump administration’s new Iran strategy following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal earlier this month. Pompeo called for US allies and partners to work with Washington to exert “maximum pressure” on Iran and outlined 12 objectives Tehran would have to meet to free itself of stringent US sanctions. Pompeo’s demands include an end to all uranium enrichment, ballistic missile testing and support to Iranian proxy forces throughout the region. The maximalist campaign, however, risks running into resistance from European efforts to shield their banks and firms from US sanctions and divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council on how far to confront Tehran. Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said today, “The world today does not accept that the United States decides for the world. Countries have their independence.” Read More
Yaroslav Trofimov writes: In its former heartland of Syria and Iraq, the once mighty Islamic State has turned, at least for now, into little more than a nuisance. But that’s not the case for the self-declared caliphate’s far-flung “provinces,” from West Africa to Afghanistan to Southeast Asia. - Wall Street Journal
Seth G. Jones writes: As the war in Syria moves into its seventh year, U.S. policymakers have struggled to agree on a clear Syria strategy. [...] These debates raise several questions. What are U.S. interests in Syria? And what should a U.S. strategy consist of moving forward? - Center for Strategic and International Studies |
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