Yesterday’s “elections” in Venezuela can only be described as a fraud that did not offer any real chance for a transition from President Nicolas Maduro’s misrule. Late last week, Roger F. Noriega took to the AEIdeas blog to write about a new revelation about the corrupt Maduro regime. The Maduro regime has been purchasing foreign oil to ship directly to Cuba, and Venezuela has traded oil for Cuban “security advisers,” who manage Venezuela’s repressive police state. Rather than importing desperately needed food and medicine for its starving citizens, the Maduro regime is once again showing its utter disregard for the well-being of the Venezuelan people. Read more here.
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China Leadership Monitor Issue 56 via Hoover Daily Report The spring issue of the China Leadership Monitor is now available online. The China Leadership Monitor seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies. Only Socialism Can Save China; Only Xi Jinping Can Save Socialism
by Alice L. Miller via China Leadership Monitor The abolition of constitutional term limits on the post of PRC president has attracted more attention than usually attends Chinese leadership politics, and sparked a flood of speculation about the purposes of Xi Jinping in engineering it. SOMALIA: Shabaab Advertises Its al Qaeda Allegiance
By Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's Long War Journal: “Shabaab, the terrorist and insurgency organization based in Somalia, continues to market its allegiance to al Qaeda. Shabaab’s propaganda arm, Al-Kata’ib Media, has released several videos since late April that underscore the group’s fealty to al Qaeda’s senior leadership and its adherence to al Qaeda’s ideological platform”
"...In summary, everything about the “bilateral” US-DPRK talks ripples through a broader, global agenda, for all players, not just Washington and Pyongyang. Pres. Trump’s seemingly unambitious approach to the talks — “if we don’t get an agreement, we simp-ly walk away” — has added impetus to the DPRK’s need to gain something from the process.
But, in fact, Pyongyang has already gained considerably in its negotiating posi-tion, and ability to be able to open relations internationally, even if the Trump-Kim talks fail to give an immediate iconic result (which is likely, apart from the “normalization” the-atrics). What the process has begun to give is the cosmetic that now it is the DPRK which drives for a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It calls the bluff of the US, but, in fact, extends into the distant future before North Korea would, in fact, be obliged to abandon its comprehensive strategic capability. Similarly, there would be no likelihood that the US would not have to meaningfully reduce its regional posture. But what this process does is that it enables (a) an end to the Korean War in a formal sense, and (b) increasing normalization in DPRK-ROK relations, enabling a phased process by which logistical lines through the DPRK could enhance trade from the ROK through to Western Europe via Russia. The new process will have some tangible outcomes in that the DPRK will achieve a greater degree of separation from Beijing, but this will also reduce Beijing’s responsibil-ity for the DPRK economy, without seeing the DPRK move out of substantial influence from Beijing. It seems that Pres. Xi Jinping can accept that, because it is, in fact, a very comfortable trade-off for the PRC. And the PRC would benefit, as well, from a more stable and economically growing neighborhood, which would include a more prosperous Russian Far East. Certainly, in the long run, if the process leads (as it almost certainly will) to a Russia-Japan normalization, then the PRC would have to consider the revived Pacific strength of Russia as a possible/probable long-term strategic constraint. It would also have to figure that Japan itself would have an improved strategic capability, but that Japan itself might be constrained by the growth of Russian Asian strength. And Beijing is still warily attempting to determine whether the new closeness of the DPRK and ROK might mean a reduction in US influence on the Peninsula, or whether the US has, in fact, been able to strengthen its overall posture in the region, particularly with the ROC and the First Island Chain. The net effect of the Trump initiative to engage with Kim Jong-Un — and it was, indeed, entirely a Trump- generated phenomenon, supported strongly by Japan and Russia — will be portrayed as a win-win by all players. Certainly, there is likely to be a reduction in Korean Peninsula tensions, even as a result of the “normalization” of relations between the DPRK and the ROK. " Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former senior British diplomat, says South Korea's aggressive diplomacy with North Korea is indicative of a strategic shift in the country's foreign policy - and its relationship with the United States.
Kudrin Factor, Putin’s Counter-Sanctions, Ruble vs. Oil While the Russian state media relished Vladimir Putin’s photo-ops at the opening of the Crimea bridge, other developments were less hyped but more consequential to the country this week. First, Dmitry Medvedev’s Cabinet was approved, with most positions filled with the same people. Second, the Duma steamrolled the passage of the counter-sanctions bill to target not just the U.S. but also Russian citizens. Third, the recent oil prices fluctuations revealed a weaker correlation with the ruble exchange rate. >>> Ruble vs. Oil: The gist: Oil prices are reaching a new high. On May 17, for the first time since November 2014, Brent crude was selling for $80 per barrel [RBC], with Bank of America predicting prices could spike to $100 per barrel in 2019. The increase has had a relatively small positive impact on the U.S. dollar/ruble exchange rate. What’s the deal?
Putin comes out with a ‘Russia First’ strategy BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR Amid a host of domestic development programs, a renewed effort to repair Russia’s relations with the West may be on the cards RUSSIA'S MARRIAGE TO IRAN & THE CONSEQUENCES As the United States prepares to exit the Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA, and restore sanctions on the nation, The Cipher Brief revisits the relationship between Iran and Russia, which continue to develop deep ties that run counter to U.S. interests. How will Washington’s actions impact how Tehran and Moscow view their overlapping interests? Russia and Iran have forged a strategic symbiotic relationship anchored in economic, defense and energy cooperation. And as the Trump administration ramps up both rhetoric and sanctions on key figures and entities linked to the Iranian regime, and threatens to impose more – Washington could end up pushing Moscow and Tehran even closer together.
WHAT THREATENS PUTIN
PUTIN'S NEW GOVERNMENT The Kudrin FactorThe breakdown: this week Vladimir Putin confirmed the composition of the new government proposed by the new/old prime minister Dmitry Medvedev. The Cabinet will now have 22 ministers and ten deputy prime ministers.
RECOMMENDED READING
THE HERO'S OF PUTIN'S ERA
The ‘Heroes’ Of The Putin Era MBK.Media has put together a compilation of the most disapproved-of recipients of state honours throughout the Putin era. The list includes figures such as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Central Electoral Commission of the Russian Federation Vladimir Churov, Rosneft head Igor Sechin and others. >>> Moscow Has Little Reason to Return to the INF Treaty // Alexander Velez-Green The incentives that led Gorbachev to sign the pact are gone. The U.S. needs to prepare for a post-INF world. Putin’s Nuclear Superweapons By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: “Putin’s recent claim of 79% modernization of Russia’s nuclear Triad seems exaggerated. However, Russia has modernized over two-thirds of its Triad since the process began in 1997.” RUSSIA WANTS AUTARKY: Read Amb. Courtney's article.
An Agenda for US-Iran Negotiations
Christopher Hill calls for talks between America and the world's dominant Shia power on a broad range of non-nuclear issues.
http://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/385700-israels-intelligence-coup-accentuates-irans-nuclear-threat
· http://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/385591-the-details-reveal-the-true-danger-of-irans-secret-nuclear-program · http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/an-extraordinary-intelligence-feat/ CHINA CROSSES THRESHOLD: MILITARIZING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA; PYONGYANG FRIENDS IRAN FOR NUKES5/5/2018 China ‘crosses threshold’ with missiles at South China Sea outposts (Asia Times) Beijing has installed cruise missiles and surface-to-air missiles on man-made islands throughout the South China Sea, according to a report on Wednesday, a move one US security analyst described as “a clear offensive threat.” China ramps up Navy to challenge US dominance (The Cipher Brief) As part of its ambitious strategy to evolve into a leading global power by 2050, China has spent considerable resources upgrading its naval capabilities. Through such undertakings, China has significantly enhanced its force projection in East Asia, where it has staked claim to disputed islands and waters as a means of expanding its sovereignty and procuring additional resources. Stepping up Competition With China By Senators Steve Daines, Chuck Grassley, David Perdue & Ron Johnson, FOX News: “China has no plans to slow its growth or restrain its quest for power and regional dominance. If America wants to maintain its influence in the world and protect its workers, consumers, businesses and values, the U.S. must act now to remain competitive. How far can China’s long-range missiles reach in the South China Sea?
(Defense News) China’s deployment of long-range missiles to its artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea would further consolidate and enhance the country’s physical control over the region and further complicate the movement of American military assets through the area, according to an Asian maritime security expert.
Next Steps for U.S. Policy in Syria and Iraq
By James Phillips & Luke Coffey, The Heritage Foundation: “The U.S. has strategic interests in both Syria and Iraq. The challenge for policymakers is formulating a policy that advances these interests without a risky and costly mission creep toward the overly ambitious goal of nation-building.” The U.S. Needs a Syria Strategy By Shlomo Ben-Ami, The Strategist (ASPI): “In the last seven years, nearly a half-million Syrian citizens have been killed and seven million have been made refugees. Meanwhile, an unholy alliance has formed among Shia zealots, represented by Iran and Hezbollah, and a Russian government committed to unravelling the post-Cold War order and radically changing the strategic game in the Middle East.”
Syria: Learning Point for Navy's Future High-End Conflict
By Megan Eckstein, USNI News: “When the Navy participated in the April 13 air strikes on three Syrian targets, it used multiple classes of surface ships and submarines, operating from both U.S. 6th Fleet and U.S. 5th Fleet areas of operations, and in conjunction with joint and international forces.” Frank Dikotter: The Biographer As Assassin
featuring Frank Dikötter via Business Standard Dikotter, the author of a devastating trilogy on Mao's rule, says that the current leadership in China equates 'democracy' with the chaos of the Cultural Revolution. Mosque blasts kill at least 27 in northeast Nigeria (Reuters) Explosions in and around a mosque in northeast Nigeria killed at least 27 people on Tuesday, a hospital official said, in the latest in a spate of attacks by militants in the region. At least two dozen killed in Nigeria suicide bombings
Yesterday's suicide bombing continues to prove the residual threat of jihadist violence in northeastern Nigeria. Top 3 takeaways from Mattis on Capitol Hill (Defense News) Geopolitics dominated Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’ appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. Here are three highlights: Mattis: New defense strategy won’t work under budget caps (Defense News) Who’s the top enemy of America’s new National Defense Strategy? The answer may be Congress, if lawmakers fail to act. Russia’s Armed Forces Strive for Command-and-Control Superiority
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Russia’s General Staff has a long-established interest in automatizing and enhancing command and control, which has shown remarkable advances since the reform of the Armed Forces was initiated in 2008.”
'Rise of the Revisionists: Russia, China, and Iran'
Gary J. Schmitt | AEI Press While al Qaeda, ISIS, and North Korea present serious problems, America's geopolitical situation is unique in that we are confronted by the rise of revisionist powers in each of the three regions seen as crucial to our own peace and prosperity: Russia in Europe, China in East Asia, and Iran in the Middle East.
With Islamic State in Decline, What’s Al-qaeda’s Next Move?
By Tore Refslund Hamming, War on the Rocks: “In the past five years, only one attack in a Western country — the Kouachi brothers’ attack against Charlie Hebdo in January 2015 — can be connected to al-Qaeda.” How Trump should define success in Syria
Danielle Pletka and Jack Keane | The National Interest There is a way forward in Syria, and Donald Trump has the courage to stand up to those inside and outside his administration who have urged retreat. With a strategy that consolidates and strengthens moderates who reject jihad and tyranny and engages our Arab regional allies, we can help Syrians win back their nation and turn the tide against ISIS, Russia, and Iran. |
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