WATERGATE IMPACT: WEAK U.S. LEADERSHIP ABROAD, GREGORY COPLEY EDITOR DEFENSE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS4/25/2018
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Why the head of Pacific Command will be the next US ambassador to South Korea instead of Australia
(The Associated Press) Australia’s prime minister said Wednesday that the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Adm. Harry Harris, will not become Washington’s next ambassador to Australia and will be posted to South Korea instead.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2018/04/17/why-president-trump-cant-get-the-best-people/?utm_term=.f5426c0a0901
Chinas Territorial Stratagem
By S.A. Cavanagh, Small Wars Journal: “China’s Aggressive Move to Occupy the Spratly regional waters through Reclamation has proved an effective stratagem, for projection of political, economic and military power.” Rivalry in Rejuvenation? Seeking New Paradigms for U.S.-China Strategic Competition By Elsa B. Kania, Strategy Bridge: “Looking to the future, the U.S. must not fear but rather should embrace a new era of competition.” ISRAEL, IRAN: Is Israel-Iran Clash Imminent?
By Ben Caspit, Al-Monitor: “Senior members of the Israeli security establishment are predicting that the month of May will be one of the most volatile periods in the current era. Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amos Yadlin, the former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Military Intelligence Directorate, said in an interview published April 22, “I have not seen a May this dangerous since May 1967.”” U.S., AFRICA: U.S. Builds Drone Base in Niger
By Carley Petesch, AP: “On the scorching edge of the Sahara Desert, the U.S. Air Force is building a base for armed drones, the newest front in America’s battle against the growing extremist threat in Africa’s vast Sahel region. Syrian army pummels southern Damascus
The Syrian army pummeled southern Damascus on Monday in an effort to isolate Islamic State militants and force them to surrender or evacuate, state media reported. The area is the last part of the capital outside the regime’s control. This comes as Russia said Monday that its Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria has helped more than 1,000 rebel fighters and their families evacuate from nearby eastern Qalamoun. Meanwhile, the European Union and United Nations kicked off the seventh annual conference on Syria today in Brussels in hopes of collecting more than $6 billion in new aid pledges and reviving the Geneva peace process. Read More dailystar.com.lb Houthi leader killed in Saudi airstrike A Saudi-led coalition airstrike in Yemen's eastern province of Hodeida last week killed the head of the Houthi rebels' Supreme Political Council, Saleh al-Sammad, the Houthi-run Saba news agency confirmed Monday. This comes a day after airstrikes on a wedding in Yemen’s northern Hajjah province killed dozens of civilians, including children. On Monday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres decried the airstrikes and called for an investigation. Meanwhile, five pro-government soldiers were killed in clashes with jihadis in the southern city of Taiz on Monday. The clashes follow the killing of Lebanese aid worker. Read More al-monitor.com Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Washington: Recommendations for President Trump
(Heritage Foundation) French President Macron’s three-day state visit to Washington from April 23 to 25, 2018, will be an important opportunity for the Trump Administration to strengthen the transatlantic alliance and reinforce U.S. priorities in Europe. Macron will be the first foreign leader hosted by the Trump White House for a state visit, and his trip comes in the wake of France’s participation alongside the United Kingdom in U.S.-led airstrikes against the Assad regime in Syria.
Middle East Missions to Accomplish
By Clifford D. May, The Washington Times: “Can we at least agree that President Trump’s decision to strike three chemical weapons facilities owned and operated by Bashar Assad — vassal of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia — was consistent with American values?”
After Ghouta, Syria Army To Target Cradle Of Revolt In Daraa
quoting Fabrice Balanche via AFP The capture of Eastern Ghouta is a significant milestone for Syria's regime and paves the way for government troops to shift south to where the seven-year uprising first began: Daraa.
Syria a Symptom of a Broken International Order
By Ramesh Thakur, The Strategist (ASPI): “Others will discuss the strategic context and consequences of the allied air strikes on Syria. As a student of UN-centric global governance, I want to make the larger ‘structural’ argument that—considered in its totality—the strikes reflect and will further contribute to a broken system of international order.
Competitive strategies against Russia are seductive, dangerous and unnecessary
(War On The Rocks) In 1987, Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger told Congress, “Wherever possible, we should adopt strategies that make obsolete past Soviet defense investments. We should devise programs for which an effective Soviet response would be far more costly than the programs we undertake.”
Trump's Syria Strategy Actually Makes Sense // Kori Schake
And it does not involve a commitment to change the horrible and predictable outcome of the civil war.
The Syrian regime is massing troops and armored vehicles to prepare to retake from Islamic State the Yarmouk area in southern Damascus, according to local sources and media. Yarmouk was home to large numbers of Palestinian refugees before the country’s civil war, but has been under siege by the Syrian regime for many years. - Jerusalem Post
Brent Eng and Jose Ciro Martinez write: It is worth remembering that the imminent downfall of Assad’s regime was proclaimed several times since the onset of violence in Syria in late 2011. Each time, Assad defied such predictions. How has his government, which several times looked so close to being toppled, weakened its rivals and ensured its continuity? - Washington Post
PATRIARCH KIRILL AND MR. PUTIN
By EPPC Distinguished Senior Fellow George Weigel Syndicated Column The Russian Church suffered terribly under Lenin, Stalin, and their heirs. Its martyrs, who number in the millions, are dishonored when the bishops of a putatively free Church play the role of chaplain to the omnipotent and infallible czar, rather than speaking truth to power. Read More HITTING ASSAD NOW, WHAT SYRIA MEANS FOR EAST ASIA & U.S. POLICY VISION FOR WESTERN BALKANS4/13/2018
What Trump's Syria decision means for East Asia
(The Diplomat) As the Trump administration prepares for its mandatory military response to Syria’s latest poison gas attack against Syrian civilians, it is undoubtedly weighing not only its intended targets, but the reactions of the other players in the grisly strategic game.
Does the West have a vision for the Western Balkans?
(War On The Rocks) Large, burly men sat in the front rows of the parliament building in Banja Luka last December, their bulging muscles revealing elaborate tattoos under their black T-shirts and hoodies. These were the “little green men” of the Balkans — only they were not little and wore black outfits instead of green camouflage uniforms. They certainly looked intimidating, sitting in the parliament of the Republika Srpska entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Members of a group called “Serbian Honor” (Српска ЧАСТ), they claim to be involved in “humanitarian” work in Republika Srpska and neighboring Serbia.
Trump said U.S. forces acted together with France and the U.K., retaliating for a suspected poison gas attack that killed dozens near Damascus last week.
According to the Pentagon, targets included:
How will Sinjar crisis end as tensions mount between Baghdad, Ankara? (Al-Monitor) Turkish troops in northern Iraq have begun building military bases to confront the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), according to an April 3 report by Al-Hurra TV that included video footage of construction. This comes after Turkish troops reportedly advanced about 6 miles into Iraqi territory last month in order to fight the PKK in the northern regions of Iraq. Turkey's running out of time to pick a partner in Syria Turkey's been playing the field in Syria, but as the crisis escalates, Ankara may have to make a commitment to either its NATO allies or Moscow. Have Iran, Russia and Turkey reached agreement on future Syrian state?
The second trilateral summit between the presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey appears to have ushered further movement toward an understanding on the political endgame in Syria.
As President Donald Trump considers air strikes on Syria, Amb. James Jeffrey—former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Turkey—believes the strike could “show the value of switching from U.S. ground troops to a mostly air-focused campaign” in the country.
The Syrian reality show (Asia Times) Russia is the biggest geopolitical winner, and US deployment of financial power to pressure Moscow is likely to backfire in the long run Arms Control Hostage to Skripal and Syria Attacks By William Courtney, RealClearDefense: “The Skripal poisoning and shrill Kremlin denials of asphyxiating gas attacks by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad raise doubts about Moscow’s commitment to the purposes of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Russia is also violating the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Never has the future of negotiated arms control involving Russia been at greater risk.” Syria relocates military assets in anticipation of US strikes The Syrian military is preparing for possible missile strikes by relocating its air assets, US officials acknowledged Wednesday in the wake of unusually public threats from US President Donald Trump to retaliate for last weekend’s suspected chemical attack. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported that regime forces were emptying airports and military air bases. And the Russian military said on Wednesday that it is tracking the movement of the US naval strike force expected to reach the Gulf in early May. Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, told Lebanese media on Wednesday that Damascus and Moscow are discussing options to respond. “Consultations are ongoing between the allies and they will not let matters progress as Washington wants,” she said. “The rules of engagement have changed in favor of Damascus.” Meanwhile, the escalating threats of military action sparked a flurry of last-minute diplomacy even as White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said Wednesday that Trump has not set a timetable or made a final decision on military action. On Wednesday evening, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Trump spoke about the Douma gas attack, and Russian parliamentary officials say Ankara is helping to mediate the situation between Washington and Moscow through NATO channels. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin also spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and warned the Israeli leader not to take any action that could further destabilize Syria. Netanyahu replied that Israel will not allow Iran to establish a military presence in the country. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Theresa May summoned a Cabinet meeting today to discuss the possibility of Britain joining the US and France in a military response. Read More reuters.com President Trump has promised a "big price to pay" for "Animal Assad" and his foreign backers, but CIA veteran Emile Nakhleh says “short of regime change, an American strike will be viewed as a pinprick.”
What China gained from hosting Kim Jong Un
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Foreign Affairs On the surface, Xi Jinping appears driven by a desire for improved Sino–North Korean relations. But although the summit signals Beijing’s interest in pursuing productive relations with Pyongyang, Xi’s decision to meet with Kim represents less of a strategic shift than appearances might suggest.
What Is America Going to Do About Syria Now?
// Uri Friedman After the latest suspected chemical attack, the United States has four options. The Logic of Assad's Brutality // Thanassis Cambanis No meaningful American response will be forthcoming, no matter how hideous the war crime.
Donald Trump's Not-So-Grand Strategy
by Josef Joffe via The American Interest The President committed a double folly this week: starting a trade war against China while pleasing Russia and Iran with a promised pull-out from Syria.
Orbn's Rebellion, Liberal Democracy And Trump's War In Syria
quoting Josef Joffe via Atlantic Sentinel Hungary’s strongman challenges liberal democracy in Europe. Donald Trump has no policy for the war in Syria.
President Trump recently announced that US troops will be “coming out of Syria . . . very soon” because “we were very successful against ISIS” and it is time to “let the other people take care of it now.” That is exactly the rationale President Obama used when he pulled US forces out of Iraq, writes Marc A. Thiessen in a Washington Post op-ed. If Trump pulls out of Syria now, he will leave behind a haven for al Qaeda. His withdrawal could also precipitate the comeback of the Islamic State. But that’s not all. A US withdrawal would create a power vacuum that would be filled by Hezbollah, Russia, and the Assad regime and could also allow Iran to establish a massive military presence in southwestern Syria, which could spark a catastrophic war with Israel. Read more here.
ICYMI: Nearly six months ago, Frederick W. Kagan argued in a Hill op-ed that American strategy in Syria was completely incompatible with the strategy to address Iranian regional influence: “The idea of reducing Iranian malign activity in the region without confronting the most flagrant example of that activity — Iranian military, financial, diplomatic and political support for the mass murdering, chemical weapons using, war criminal Assad — is absurd.” As Iran, Russian, and Syrian regime forces scramble to control the territory from which ISIS recently fled, Kagan’s prediction seems to be coming true. Revisit the piece here.
Ron Ben-Yishai writes: If Israel was indeed behind the missile strike on the T-4 military base in Syria, it's safe to assume the attack was carried out to prevent the Iranians from further establishing their military presence in Syria and from improving the Revolutionary Guards and Shiite militias' ability to act against Israel. - Ynet News
Editorial: The line between retreat and all-out war is a fine and winding one. Walking it will take diplomatic skill and military smarts that the Obama administration lacked and the Trump administration hasn’t yet shown. It may prove impossible. But for now, Trump has to try to avoid another war. - Washington Examiner
James S. Robbins writes: If you are the embattled Assad, the sensible course of action would be to lay low at this point and let the supposed White House drama play out. Instead, Assad chose this moment to launch a horrific chemical weapons attack on civilians in the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Douma. So headlines about White House disarray were swept aside and replaced with the president tweeting about the “Animal Assad” and the heavy price he and his allies will pay. - USA Today
Here Is How Russia and America Could Go to War in Syria
(The National Interest) The Trump administration will be making a decision on how to respond to an alleged chemical weapons attack in the Syria town of Douma within the next forty-eight hours. The US is drawing up several options for striking Syria after chemical weapons attack, Pentagon sources say (Washington Examiner) U.S. military planners have drawn up more than one option for possible military action against Syria, including a strike similar to last year’s attack in which 59 sea-launched cruise missiles inflicted heavy damage on a Syrian Air Force airfield in Homs. US response to security threats in the Americas Roger F. Noriega | AEI video President Trump is finally putting a team in place to address the security threats in South America such as drug cartels and narotics trafficking. With the pending appointment of Mike Pompeo as secretary of state, Roger Noriega explains how the Trump administration could finally take steps to address many issues plaguing Latin America. From the corrupt narco-state of Venezuela to the growing coca threat from Colombia, the US faces no shortage of serious national security threats in our own hemisphere. President Trump’s upcoming visit to South America then comes at the perfect time. In a new AEI “In 60 Seconds” video, Roger F. Noriega argues that while the challenges may be grave, President Trump is beginning to put together a team, spearheaded by Secretary of State–designate Mike Pompeo, that can confront these threats as opposed to kicking the can further down the road. Watch it here. DEEP DIVE: Transnational organized crime resides at the heart of nearly every major threat confronting the Americas today. These organizations systematically degrade democratic institutions and the rule of law, stunting economic growth and stifling legitimate commerce and investment. Last year, AEI’s Working Group on Transnational Crime in the Americas released its seminal report, “Kingpins and Corruption: Targeting Transnational Organized Crime in the Americas,” which first identifies the threats and then elucidates a series of effective policy prescriptions for Congress and the Trump administration to adopt. Revisit the report here. 5 things that should top the US delegation’s Summit of the Americas agenda
Roger F. Noriega | AEIdeas Vice President Pence, Sen. Rubio (R-FL), and the other members of the delegation can take advantage of the opportunity presented by this summit to achieve important goals and secure vital progress on key issues. The US delegation should try to move the needle in five key areas. Ousting Assad by Russell A. Berman via Defining Ideas There are powerful moral and strategic reasons to end a butcher's rule. Turkey consolidates presence in northern Syria Turkey is not withdrawing troops from recently conquered Afrin in Kurdish-dominated Syria despite Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s request, according to presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin. Kalin said Turkish military forces planned to stay in Afrin with their Free Syrian Army allies after entering northern Syria on March 18 to battle the US-backed People’s Protection Units. Meanwhile, Turkey is opening a new border crossing with Afrin, Turkish broadcaster NTV reports, giving Ankara more leverage in Syrian reconstruction efforts. The crossing aims to establish a commercial route to Aleppo and help return some refugees to Syria. Read More hurriyetdailynews.com
Trump challenges the Russian-Turkish-Iranian alliance (Asia Times) Three is company. But if the trilateral dialogue format in international diplomacy seldom produces concrete results, that is because it cannot be sequestered from external influences. Besides, the three participants are bound to have specific interests and priorities. The long-awaited Turkey-Russia-Iran trilateral summit in Ankara on April 4 has been no exception.
Stephen Collinson writes: The brutal chemical weapons attack in Syria presents Bolton with an immediate crisis that will highlight the biggest questions surrounding his appointment, offering an early examination of how his vision of the robust use of US power abroad will ally with Trump's own hawkish instincts. - CNN
The Pentagon’s mission against the Islamic State in Syria remains open-ended despite President Trump’s promise of a quick U.S. withdrawal. Military leaders are focusing on pushing the once-powerful group out of the small foothold it controls in eastern Syria and ensuring that it cannot plot attacks against the United States, a task defense officials have suggested will require a U.S. footprint after the fighting stops. - Washington Post Rebel fighters began leaving the devastated Syrian city of Douma on Sunday in the first phase of a Russian-sponsored deal to evacuate thousands of rebels from the besieged enclave, state media said. - Reuters Former US Ambassador to Syria Ryan Crocker, Pavel Baev, and Michael O’Hanlon write: Trump deserves credit for his success in Syria, but it represents an interim goal, not a durable achievement. Withdrawing U.S. forces, security assistance, economic aid and diplomatic engagement risks allowing a war that has killed half a million and displaced 12 million to continue — or worse, to expand into a truly regional war. - USA Today
Getting Realistic on Russia
By Mike Gallagher, RealClearDefense: “...to deter future Russian aggression, we must think creatively about imposing direct costs on the Putin regime.”
Jacob Zenn writes: This episode shows how ideology and even guidance from Islamic State can have a practical impact on the ground in the insurgency in Nigeria. It not only underscores the split into factions of Boko Haram led by Shekau and Abu Musab al-Barnawi, respectively, but that even al-Barnawi’s faction itself is not monolithic. - Council on Foreign Relations
To Support Africa, Build Infrastructure
By Rathna K. Muralidharan, RealClearDefense: “Washington cannot provide support for security, aid, or development if it is not able to reach areas of operations. Many missions in Africa, from counterterrorism and counter drug-trafficking to responding to disease epidemics, cannot succeed without logistical support and network access.”
The United States and its Western allies have taken a number of steps in recent weeks to push back on Russian aggression, with the latest being the expulsion of dozens of Russian diplomats from the United States, NATO and many European countries.
But these actions will not be enough to deter Russia’s President Vladimir Putin from continuing his campaign of hybrid warfare against the West, writes Cipher Brief expert Robert M. Dannenberg, former chief of the CIA’s Central Eurasia Division:
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