The Trajectory of the Iranian Military
By Alex Vatanka, Middle East Institute: “There can be no doubt that despite much speculation about Washington’s long-term intentions, the United States remains the most powerful political-military actor in the Middle East. In that context, the most powerful adversary of the U.S. in the region is the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
CSIS’ Edward Luttwak: The Ayatollah empire is rotting away
Trump in Asia: The Year in Review
Donald Trump campaigned on a platform that included fundamental changes in the US posture toward Asia. He cast doubt on the utility of the alliances with Japan and South Korea and questioned the One China policy, and thus the longstanding policy of "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan.
Al Qaeda maintains operational tempo in West Africa in 2017
At least 276 attacks in Mali and its neighboring countries were linked al Qaeda in 2017. This includes a significant shift of violence to central Mali, as well as northern Burkina Faso.
Trump’s National Security Strategy a Timely Counter to China’s Expansionism
By Don Tse & Larry Ong, RealClearDefense: “A confident America that can discern its true competitor would not find a rising China frightening, and could instead devise a permanent solution to the CCP threat.”
Coming to Grips With a Rising China
By Ramon Marks, RealClearDefense: “The strategic implications of China’s rising power have prompted ambivalent reactions from the U.S. and western democracies. Unlike the quick coalescence on the containment strategy for the Soviet Union after World War II, there is still no real consensus on how the United States should deal with China in the 21st century.” US strikes Shabaab outside Somali capital
In the first strike of 2018, US forces have again halted an imminent car bomb attack intended for Somalia's capital. 2017: A record year for US counterterrorism strikes The pattern of operations in 2017 in what the Obama administration used to call areas outside of active hostilities indicates that the US will continue the reinvigorated air campaign in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya in the coming year. Abbas Milani: How Is The Iranian Government Responding To Protests? interview with Abbas Milani via PBS Hoover Institution fellow Abbas Milani analyzes how the Iranian government is responding to the protests. Milani notes that he believes that the protests are the result of about 30 years of economic mismanagement, corruption, and cronyism. Eruption in Iran Clifford May, The Washington Times Surprise protests expose Iran’s hidden weakness Iran’s complex of crises catches up with the regime BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN The weight of banking, pension and water problems, plus its expensive military adventures, are dragging the country into a deep sense of malaise Understanding the Iran protests Michael Rubin | AEIdeas The Worst Thing for Iran’s Protesters? U.S. Silence Reuel Marc Gerecht, The New York Times What Washington can do to support Iran’s protesters Richard Goldberg, New York Post
Rouhani hopes to ride the wave of Iran’s turmoil BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR It is not as if the protests are turning into an insurrection or a 'Color Revolution’
Asia's Core Conflict Began In 1868 Japan
by Michael R. Auslin via Wall Street Journal Samurai rule was usurped by reformers torn between modernity and tradition.
How South Korea views the northern threat
Oriana Skylar Mastro | AEIdeas One of the main reasons the United States has not launched limited strikes on North Korean missile launch facilities is the fear that North Korea would retaliate by launching a barrage of artillery at Seoul. However, a number of South Korean interlocutors questioned the assumption that North Korea would respond in this manner. The artillery threat is Kim Jong Un’s trump card, but he also understands that a second Korean War would end with his demise.
CHINA, NORTH KOREA:
China Covertly Offering Missiles, Increased Aid to North Korea By Bill Gertz, The Washington Free Beacon: “China's Communist Party adopted a secret plan in September to bolster the North Korean government with increased aid and military support, including new missiles, if Pyongyang halts further nuclear tests, according to an internal party document.”
Anti-government protests in Iran remained violent overnight as clashes between security forces and demonstrators left nine people dead, state television reported Tuesday, bringing the death toll to at least 20. The unrest has raged now for six days and confounded leaders who have struggled to respond. - Washington Post
The biggest wave of protests to hit Iran in almost a decade has backed the country’s leaders into a corner, and the Trump administration is increasing the pressure by threatening fresh sanctions if the government forcefully cracks down on the demonstrations. - Wall Street Journal Syria has expressed solidarity with Iran where clashes between protesters and security forces over the past days have left several people dead and wounded. - Associated Press Ignoring pleas for calm from President Hassan Rouhani, Iranian protesters took to the streets in several cities for the fifth day on Monday as pent-up economic and political frustrations boiled over in the broadest display of discontent in years. - New York Times Opinion: But the Trump administration faces the conundrum that has long stymied U.S. officials seeking to support dissidents abroad: What precisely can we do, beyond issuing statements? After all, a loud statement unsupported by action is unlikely to have more impact than one delivered sotto voce. - Washington Post Editorial: The Trump administration and other Western governments should aim to hold him [Rouhani] to those words through diplomacy and the threat of sanctions in the event of more bloodshed. Western leaders should also do what they can to support peaceful protests, including by looking for ways to help Iranians communicate with one another as the regime restricts the Internet. - Washington Post Expect tensions with China and Russia to rise in 2018 John R. Bolton | The Hill China and Trump's National Security Strategy
Claude Barfield | AEIdeas Hooked on realism: Democracy promotion at the State Department Gary J. Schmitt | AEIdeas
Putin’s Political Provocateurs
By Dan Boylan and Guy Taylor, The Washington Times: “Debate rages in Washington over the true scale and impact of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, but intelligence sources say Moscow’s hacking, fake news and social media manipulation ignited a global trend that now threatens some of the world’s most fragile democracies.” The KGB Playbook for Infiltrating the Middle East By Michael Weiss, The Daily Beast: “ ... the KGB’s own self-criticism after its failings in the Middle East—a situation that Putin, in recent years, has set out to rectify with a vengeance.” The grand bargain to give the West back its mojo Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest What America must do if it wants strong European allies
Paul Zajac | War on the Rocks
Russia Fires New RS-12M Topol ICBM
By Joseph Trevithick, The WarZone: “Russia says it has tested yet another new reentry vehicle design on an RS-12M Topol intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM. The development comes amid persistent complaints about America’s ballistic missile defense shield, as well as renewed tensions between the Kremlin and the U.S. government over various agreements limiting the development of nuclear weapons.”
Beijing vs the end of the North Korea threat. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs.
BEIJING — A Chinese county along the border with North Korea is constructing refugee camps intended to house thousands of migrants fleeing a possible crisis on the Korean Peninsula, according to an internal document that appears to have been leaked from China’s main state-owned telecommunications company. Three villages in Changbai County and two cities in the northeastern border province of Jilin, have been designated for the camps, according to the document from China Mobile. The document appeared last week on Weibo, a microblogging site. The camps are an unusual, albeit tacit, admission by China that instability in North Korea is increasingly likely, and that refugees could swarm across the Tumen River, a narrow ribbon of water that divides the two countries. For decades, Chinese policy on North Korea has centered on maintaining stability in a neighboring country known for its repression and volatility. Despite international sanctions and condemnation, the North in recent months has intensified a program to test nuclear weapons and missiles, increasing the potential for internal instability or the chance of an attack by the United States. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/world/asia/china-north-korea-border.html?_r=0
Too Many Generals, Not Enough Troops in the Sahel
By Kimberly Dozier, The Cipher Brief: “A crisscrossing patchwork of African joint security forces have marshalled in North Africa to stamp out terrorism on the continent, with particular focus on the long and remote borders of the Sahel. But their small size, lack of funds, unclear authorities and competing lines of leadership are more likely to produce confusion than coalesce into an effective blanket of security capable of blocking traffic by vicious and nimble militant groups, and the criminal networks that supply them and profit from the instability they bring.” Turkey finalizes Russian missile defense buy
Turkey and Russia have finalized a $2.5 billion deal to finance the delivery of four S-400 missile defense systems for Ankara. Sergei Chemezov, the CEO of Russia's state-run defense company Rostec, told Russian daily Kommersant that the first delivery is planned for March 2020. "It is the first NATO country to acquire our latest air defense system S-400," Chemezov said. Turkey's decision to buy Russian S-400 systems has raised concern among NATO member countries, who worry the move points toward a Turkish military tilt away from the defense bloc. Read More
Report: Obama stalled investigation into Hezbollah’s drug empire
The Barack Obama administration stalled a US law enforcement effort to uproot drug trafficking networks controlled by the Shiite militia Hezbollah in an apparent effort to avoid disrupting nuclear negotiations with Iran, Politico reports. The investigation is likely to rekindle criticism of the previous administration’s efforts to reduce tensions with Tehran. “This was a policy decision, it was a systematic decision,” said David Asher, a former Defense Department analyst who worked on the probe. “They serially ripped apart this entire effort that was very well supported and resourced, and it was done from the top down.” Other sources, however, suggest Drug Enforcement Administration investigators and other critics have little idea why the probe was stymied. Read More
Recovering the empire: A paper series edited by AEI's Leon Aron
Various scholars | American Enterprise Institute Through a glass darkly: Three scenarios for Russian aggression in UkraineMichael Kofman | American Enterprise Institute | December 12, 2017 Russia's unfinished business in UkraineAndrew Wilson | American Enterprise Institute | December 12, 2017
Russia to expand military presence in Syria bases
Russia will start expanding its naval and air bases in Syria, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday. The move comes as part of a deal signed with Damascus in January and ratified by parliament to ensure Russian access to Syrian waters and ports. “Last week the Commander-in-Chief [President Vladimir Putin] approved the structure and the bases in Tartus and in Hmeimim [air base]. We have begun forming a permanent presence there,” RIA news agency quoted Shoigu as saying. Russia will use the Tartus port for 49 years with the possibility of extending the agreement, and utilize the air base in Hmeimim indefinitely.Meanwhile, Chief of the General Staff Army Gen. Valery Gerasimov said Wednesday that next year’s priority for the Russian military in Syria will be "wiping out An-Nusra forces." Gerasimov noted that "some members of this terrorist organization operate in de-escalation zones … therefore they must be eliminated." Another priority will be political settlement in Syria, Gerasimov added. Read More |
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