Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan made a major breakthrough by resolving most of the issues related to a decades-long border dispute earlier this year. - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
CHINA SUSTAINS NORTH KOREAN GERM WARFARE UNIT & WHITE HOUSE POLICY PRINCIPLES DIVERGE ON NORTH KOREA12/14/2017
Trump’s North Korea Policy? Tillerson, McMaster Diverge
By Brian Garrett-Glaser, The Cipher Brief: “Conflicting signals about whether the U.S. is prepared to resume talks with North Korea raise questions about what conditions, if any, might be imposed and even how unified the administration of President Donald Trump really is on undertaking this kind of initiative.” THE NYC BOMBER & AFRICOM, THE LONG WAR JOURNAL INTERACTIVE MAP OF SOMALIA U.S. COUNTERTERROR RAIDS12/13/2017 AFRICOM strike halts Shabaab car bomb attack The US military has launched 32 strikes in Somalia since the beginning of 2017, more than doubling last year's total of 15. New York City bomber ‘did it for the Islamic State’ "I did it for the Islamic State," Akayed Ullah, who is charged with carrying out the failed bombing in Times Square yesterday, allegedly told authorities. Bomber targets New York City transit system with improvised device Akayed Ullah, a 27-year-old man from Bangladesh, attempted to detonate an improvised explosive device in midtown Manhattan earlier today. No one was killed in the failed bombing, but several people suffered minor wounds. Jihadists have repeatedly targeted New York City since the 9/11 hijackings. New York Port Authority Attack
The Bangladeshi man accused of detonating an explosive device in an underground passageway near Port Authority Bus Terminal on Monday is a legal U.S. resident who was angry about “the plight of Muslims” in the Middle East, according to a senior law-enforcement official. - Wall Street Journal The arrest of a Bangladeshi immigrant accused of making a homemade pipe bomb and setting it off in the New York subway system has led to discussion of the nation’s immigration system, with President Donald Trump repeating his refrain that it needs to be overhauled in favor of more restrictions. - Associated Press Editorial: A terrorist set off a bomb in New York’s subway Monday morning, and the worst thing he did was blow up his own crotch. That may be why you don’t see the cries and arguments that you usually see in the wake of terrorist attacks. This relative silence doesn’t reflect a lack of vigilance, in our mind. It reflects a proper proportion of vigilance. - Washington Examiner Editorial: For years after the 9/11 destruction of the World Trade Center towers, it was a point of civic pride among New Yorkers and their stellar police department that no serious terrorist attack had succeeded again in America’s foremost urban target. Now that may be changing, which raises questions about whether the post 9/11 status quo needs to be re-examined. - Wall Street Journal U.S. Army Had a Special 'Suicide Squad' Ready to Strike Russian Forces By Michael Peck, The National Interest: “Had the Cold War turned hot, there would have been no escape for the U.S. garrison in West Berlin. Marooned in a city more than 100 miles inside Communist East Germany, the U.S. Berlin Brigade—and the British and French garrisons as well—would certainly have been overwhelmed by Soviet and East German troops.” Leon Aron | US News & World Report Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he will seek a fourth term as president in the upcoming March 2018 Russian elections. In a US News & World Report op-ed from this past July, Leon Aron contended that Putin’s win in 2018 “is a given,” but how Putin must win is also important. “Putin does not want to resort to electoral fraud and thus risk protests all over Russia. No, he needs, and without doubt wants, fireworks, thrills, the outpouring of popular gratitude and adulation. He needs a national-patriotic military triumph, humiliating the enemy (NATO, the US) and adding to the glory of the lost empire.” Revisit the piece here. Also, stay tuned for the release of Aron’s upcoming monograph, “Recovering the Empire,” which will be released in March 2018 to coincide with the Russian presidential election. The monograph will consist of 12 essays by various regional and military experts exploring the motivations behind a potential attack on six post-Soviet counties, the Kremlin’s criteria for choosing the target countries, and a country-by-country analysis of putative venues and modes of potential Russian aggression. Get a sneak peek here. Analysis: With the victory of President Vladimir V. Putin assured, the real contest, they say, is the bare-knuckled, no-holds-barred fight to determine who or what comes after him by the end of his next six years in office, in 2024. - New York Times Russia's unfinished business in Ukraine Andrew Wilson | AEI With Russia, Try Try Again
By Michael Nordeen, RealClearDefense: “Despite this deplorable state of affairs, a responsible step to improve U.S.-Russia relations would be to negotiate recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and eliminate related sanctions in exchange for a series of small wins that benefit the U.S., Russia, and the global order.” Getting the Best Out of Moscow By Daniel Hoffman, The Cipher Brief: “While partnership with Russia on Syria has too many pitfalls to justify the strategic risk to the U.S., the Trump administration should consider three areas for collaboration.” Assessment of the Lone Wolf Terrorist Concept
By Linda Schlegel, Divergent Options “The label “lone wolf” is attached easily to an individual attacker by politicians and the media, but must be used with care. These actors do not perceive themselves as acting alone but as part of a group. This group is increasingly found in the virtual realm, begging the question of whether traditional notions of membership in terrorist groups is still a valid indication of whether an attack was perpetrated by a lone wolf or not.”
CALLING CHINA'S BLUFF ON TAIWAN
How Trump and Taiwan are calling China's bluff Gary J. Schmitt | AEIdeas In the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, there are a number of notable measures regarding US defense cooperation with Taiwan. These provisions are long overdue. For the past quarter century, successive administrations have dawdled or simply refused to send Taiwan the weapons and systems needed to strengthen Taiwan's own defense and its strategic value to the US.
China fears an Indian ‘stab in the back’ if it fights Taiwan
BY FRANK CHEN New Delhi fears losing control of its eastern states, while Beijing is concerned about fighting wars on two fronts - the Tibetan border, and Taiwan
CHINA: China Confirms Test of Powerful DF-41 ICBM
By Bill Gertz, The Washington Times: “China's People's Liberation Army has confirmed the latest flight test of the newest and most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile known as the DF-41.”
A Chinese county along the border with North Korea is constructing refugee camps intended to house thousands of migrants fleeing a possible crisis on the Korean Peninsula, according to an internal document that appears to have been leaked from China’s main state-owned telecommunications company. - New York Times
Opinion: Recognizing the seriousness of the growing threat to the Asia-Pacific region and the United States, it was a welcome sign that President Donald Trump recently reclassified North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism. This designation puts North Korea under increasingly harsher sanctions to reinforce the nonnegotiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. - Defense News
Opinion: For decades, the relationship between China and the West rested on illusion and pretense. Western politicians fooled themselves into thinking that the Chinese system, centrally directed and authoritarian, would in time resemble their own, open and democratic. - Wall Street Journal
Crises in Middle East could change Asia’s energy security dynamic
BY ALAM SRINIVAS India and China are not only trying to reduce their dependence on oil from the Middle East, but also considering renewable energy alternatives; meanwhile, China-Russia-Iran-Pakistan could become a new energy supply axis in the near future Iran eyes Caspian Sea pact with Russia
Iran and the four other nations bordering the Caspian Sea — Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — have agreed to ban foreign military forces from entering the sea under a convention to be debated at a two-day summit in Moscow. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the Moscow gathering could lead to a ministerial summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, aimed at finalizing the Caspian’s legal status. Read More
The Long and Winding Road to a Haircut
Carmen Reinhart predicts that key similarities between Puerto Rico and Venezuela will emerge as their debt sagas play out.
Venezuela Cryptocurrency Scheme: No Way Out of Its Crises
Venezuela is being strangled by hyperinflation, joblessness, insolvency, corruption, and sanctions imposed by the US government. It has also been suspended from the South American trading bloc Mercosur over the undemocratic practices of the Nicolas Maduro government, among other reasons. To loosen...
Puerto Rico needs the IMF
Desmond Lachman | US News & World Report
Puerto Rico’s economic challenges
Desmond Lachman | Statement before the Puerto Rico Oversight Board
The Hwasong-15: The Anatomy of North Korea's New ICBM
By Ankit Panda, The Diplomat: “Designated the KN22 by the U.S. intelligence community, the Hwasong-15 is North Korea’s second-ever liquid-fueled intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) design to see flight testing. Prior to its November 29 launch, the missile had never been seen publicly. "
Understanding the North Korea Threat
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): “Although it has not yet demonstrated a re-entry vehicle capable of surviving atmospheric friction, North Korea announced that it has mastered nuclear strike capability and become a full-fledged nuclear state. Like previous U.S. presidents, Donald Trump has said that this state of affairs is intolerable. So now what?
Finally, the role of China should not be underestimated in any potential military scenario in Korea. Washington may desire and even plan for a limited conflict, but any threat to the continued existence of North Korea is more likely than not to induce Beijing to get involved. While Chinese President Xi Jinping has no love lost for Kim Jong-un, China appears unwilling to let North Korea disappear as a buffer state between it and the democratic, liberal, largely Western-leaning South Korea. It is thus entirely possible that Beijing would order Chinese forces into North Korea to secure Pyongyang and set up a puppet regime. That could put U.S. and Chinese forces in close proximity, or put Chinese forces potentially at risk from U.S. airstrikes in North Korea, either of which scenario would force Washington policymakers to make a difficult choice about how or whether to continue military operations.
The highest priority of the North Korean regime is survival, and to that end, it has developed a set of interlocking defensive and offensive capabilities that would challenge allied conventional military strategies. In the end, the North Korean regime would be unlikely to survive a campaign waged with the full conventional strength of the United States and South Korea, but it would seek to impose such significant physical costs on South Korea, Japan, and U.S. territories, that Washington and Seoul would hesitate to wage preventive or preemptive war, and might even refrain from an overwhelming response to North Korean aggression. With the anticipated risks to South Korea, Japan, and U.S. interests of any type of preventive or preemptive war, North Korea has shaped the pre-hostilities environment in a way that removes confidence in any reasonable conventional military option to remove the threat it poses, short of a major theater war. https://www.hoover.org/research/war-games-korean-peninsula
North Korea's Latest Missile Test Sends China A Clear Message
by CDR Michael Nordeen via The Hill North Korea has tested another missile and initial indications suggest that it has the technical capability of reaching Washington, D.C.
East Asia
Last Wednesday, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which flew higher and longer than any previous missile test to date. Today, the US and South Korean militaries held exercises that included strikes on mock North Korean nuclear test sites. US officials said the drills were planned before North Korea’s ICBM test last week. China’s grand strategy requires much of its military and security forces. President Xi Jinping’s “China dream” of “national rejuvenation” calls for the reunification of the lost Qing imperial territories of Taiwan and Hong Kong, the continued suppression of the imperial holdings of Tibet and Xinjiang, the coercion of countries abutting the seas around China’s coast to make good on expansive maritime claims, the preparation of contingencies on the Korean Peninsula, and preparation for a fight with the United States, should Washington’s strategic position in Asia become untenable for Beijing. Dan Blumenthal lays out how the United States should respond in an op-ed for The Hill. Read here. China’s President Xi Jinping took major steps to solidify his place as the strongest leader of the People’s Republic of China in a generation at the 19th Party Congress in October. Oriana Skylar Mastro joined the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ weekly Asia podcast to discuss the implications of the Party Congress and Xi’s plan to lead the People’s Liberation Army through its largest reform ever to become a truly world-class fighting force by 2050. Listen here. How should the United States respond to North Korea’s ballistic missile test last week? In an AEIdeas blog, Marc A. Thiessen argues that President Donald Trump should take out the test site from which the North Koreans launched the missile toward Japan — just like he struck a military base in Syria last April. Then, President Trump should declare North Korea a ballistic missile “no-fly zone” and a nuclear weapons “no-test zone.” So long as North Korea does not retaliate, Trump should assure Pyongyang that he will take no further military action against the regime. Continue here. Watch Thiessen discuss his recommendations on Fox News this past week. Watch it here. Sinai massacre forebodes more violence Egypt's Sinai Peninsula may be in store for more terrorism as the latest attack that left more than 300 people dead at al-Rawda Sufi mosque could be a sign of things to come from militant groups in the area. U.S. Military Stretched Thin in 50 African Nations By Les Neuhaus, Observer: “The Pentagon has between 5,000-6,000 servicemen and women stationed across 50 of 54 countries, according to civilian spokesperson for the American military’s Africa Command.” To follow through on a major campaign promise, the Trump administration is considering recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and possibly moving the US embassy there from its current location in Tel Aviv. In an AEI “In 60 Seconds” video, Danielle Pletkaweighs in on the debate. Watch it here. There’s been a rise of Islamist militants across Africa in recent years, but can anything be done to stop them? How severe is the threat they pose to the West? Emily Estelle gives her take in an AEI “In 60 Seconds” video and explains why it is a dangerous misconception to see African terror groups as too locally focused to threaten the West. Catch it here. Watch: Islamist militancy in Africa
Emily Estelle | AEI video There's been a rise of Islamist militancy across Africa in recent years, creating a growing threat to the US and Europe. There’s a dangerous misconception that African militant groups are too locally focused to pose a threat. The US should understand that addressing the challenge now is far cheaper than fighting another war later. What is next for Zimbabwe? Roger Bate | AEIdeas How Maduro's Venezuela Playbook Borrows from Mugabe in Zimbabwe
Almost since the day he came into power following Hugo Chávez’s death in 2013, President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela has confronted predictions of his imminent downfall. Despite his gross economic mismanagement, squandering of oil revenues, threats of a debt default [1] and rising poverty, he has...
MEMRI’s Yigal Carmon: Putin’s Syria illusion
China's New Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review China is following the same path to regional hegemony that Japan did in the 1930s. America’s $45 trillion lead over China
Complaints about US decline in the face of China’s rise under President Obama have been replaced by complaints from new people under President Trump. The debate over policy in the two administrations is important but shouldn’t obscure basic facts: In terms of total economic resources, China isn’t in America’s league and may not even be catching up.
The Distinctive Cruelty Of Killing Worshipers quoting Samuel Tadros via The Atlantic A mosque attack that killed more than 300 people in Egypt stands out for its ruthlessness, but not for the sinister targeting of the faithful. Suicide attack kills 20 in Kurdish area reclaimed by Baghdad At least 20 people were killed and more than 40 wounded in a suicide car bomb attack on a crowded market in northeastern Iraq on Tuesday. The attack struck Iraq’s multi-ethnic Tuz Khormato district, which was previously under control of Kurdish forces before Baghdad ousted the peshmerga from disputed areas last month following the Kurds’ controversial independence referendum in September. Read More An American military airstrike on Tuesday killed more than 100 people who were identified by the Pentagon as being affiliated with the Islamic militant group Shabab, continuing a stepped-up pace against targets in Somalia, officials said. - New York Times A suicide bomber set off explosives on Tuesday during morning prayers in a small, crowded mosque in northeastern Nigeria in a deadly attack that comes amid a raft of similar assaults on rural communities in the region. - New York Times Egypt’s security forces were on high alert Saturday after striking back at militants whose massacre of more than 300 people at a Sinai mosque raised fears of a new and bloodier phase in the country’s struggle against Islamist insurgents. - Washington Post
Bedouin leaders in the Sinai Peninsula have issued a rare call for solidarity with the Egyptian army to fight against Islamic extremism in response to a Friday attack that killed more than 300 Muslims at a local mosque. - Wall Street Journal After militants massacred 305 people at a packed mosque on Friday in a stunning assault on a sacred place, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi responded as he knows best. - New York Times Since at least 2016, Islamic State militants have targeted Sufis, who practice a mystical form of Islam that includes the veneration of saints, often at their tombs. - New York Times |
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