Is the Philippines the Next Caliphate? By Patrick B. Johnston & Colin P. Clarke, Foreign Policy: “The Islamic State is already thinking about how to regroup. The Philippines is a long way from the group’s birthplace in the Middle East — but the jihadis have already seized and held a city there for three months, and exerted a grim cost on the country’s security forces to retake it.” Islamic State’s new frontline in the Philippines BY BONG S SARMIENTO Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, an IS-allied militant group, threatens to launch an urban warfare assault similar to the siege of Marawi City Argentina Sub: What Happens When a Submarine Vanishes
From BBC News: “Dr. Robert Farley, a lecturer at the University of Kentucky who has written on the subject, says that a sub is very hard to trace if resting on the seabed because under such circumstances it will not be making any "noise".” Also see USNI's Update. KOREAN PENINSULA: Cold War Drama Caught on Video As North Korean Soldier Escapes
By Foster Klug, AP: “The defection, subsequent surgeries and slow recovery of the soldier have riveted South Korea. But his escape is a huge embarrassment for the North, which claims all defections are the result of rival Seoul kidnapping or enticing North Koreans. Pyongyang has said nothing about the defection so far.” NYT's Bret Stephens on Mugabe and other heroes of the left. ![]()
How elite plotters toppled Mugabe’s37-year reign GEOPOLITICAL MONITOR The path to the coup
9 October: Mugabe reshuffles his cabinet for the first time in two years.
The military takes overIn the early morning of 15 November, under the orders of Gen. Chiwenga, the Zimbabwean military seized the state-controlled Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation and placed President Mugabe under house arrest. Army officials also detained several cabinet ministers who were aligned with a faction group within ZANU-PF and members of the Mugabe family. In a televised statement, Major General Sibusiso Moyo stated that the day’s events were not a coup, but an intervention to “pacify a degenerating political, social and economic situation in our country, which if not addressed may result in violent conflict.” Despite lacking an official label, the military action triggered the armed forces to armored vehicles to roam around Harare, the capital city, and troops to guard key security points. Two days later, Mugabe’s motorcade drove through the Harare without an army escort. This led many to believe that perhaps the former leader had some freedom to move about as he pleased. Later in the day, Mr. Mugabe met with Gen. Chiwengaalong with Roman Catholic officials and South African envoys to discuss the current political and economic state of the country. The meeting also appeared to be an opportunity for Gen. Chiwenga to announce that the military had taken action to alleviate the political instability within the ruling party, but to officially reiterate that a coup never occurred. Official photos taken from the meeting showed Mugabe smiling and shaking hands with Gen. Chiwenga with no visible signs of distress. Four scenarios for Zimbabwe's future: At this time, with no clear indications of an orderly succession, there are a few possible scenarios that can unfold, each with their associated risks. Scenario 1: Mugabe refuses to resignThus far Robert Mugabe has not voluntarily stepped aside as president and leader of ZANU-PF and has said he will preside over the Party Congress in December. In the short run, this raises the risk of unrest, but Mugabe is very unlikely to serve another 5-year term. Zimbabwean armed forces have stated that the military takeover was only meant to target certain “criminals” who were “causing social and economic suffering in the country.” They vowed to return the situation to normalcy once they accomplished their mission. The recent talks between the military and the president have been confidential. It is widely suspected that military officials have put pressure on the president to step aside. If, however, the military simply meant the takeover to be more symbolic — to send a forceful signal within the party to cease any perceived anti-democratic governing, then perhaps Mr. Mugabe has not been unseated. Alternatively, the armed forces could have put pressure on the president to resign in vain, but are unwilling to use violence to actually unseat the autocrat. Whichever the case may be, Mr. Mugabe is likely testing how far he can go in retaining power. His actions in the past couple of months certainly showed that he was intent on doing so. He may also be buying himself time to negotiate a safe exit for himself and close associates, while preserving his family's assets. However, his actions are increasing the risks of unrest. Even if he manages to cling on, given Mr. Mugabe's alleged poor health it is highly unlikely that the president could serve another full five-year term. This scenario would ultimately bring us back to the status quo — increased in-fighting within ZANU-PF in the battle to replace Mr. Mugabe. Scenario 2: Mnangagwa succeeds MugabeDespite being recently fired, Emmerson Mnangagwa remains the likely successor to Robert Mugabe. Whether he can implement reform is another matter. In the upcoming 2018 general elections, the former VP would have a good chance of victory. A Mnangagwa administration, democratically elected in free and fair elections, would in principle have the legitimacy and clout to implement the type of dramatic economic reform absent from the Mugabe era. Mnangagwa has an economic recovery plan, which involves re-engagement with international creditors and a reform package. However, there is a strong probability that the forces of inertia would prevail under his presidency, given that Mnangagwa is such an entrenched part of the establishment. He has been a central figure of ZANU-PF for decades. This former head of the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO), or secret police, was rumored to be instrumental in the military takeover and it is no secret that Mnangagwa has wanted to replace Mugabe for some time. It may not be a stretch to envision a democratically elected Mnangagwa if the former VP rises from the coup’s ashes to position himself as the anti-Mugabe Dynasty, pro-democracy candidate. He has extensive political experience, support from Zimbabwe’s armed forces and enjoys widespread public support among Zimbabwe’s elite. At the very least, Mnangagwa currently faces almost no credible challengers. Would Mnangagwa still have a chance at succession if Zimbabwe’s 2018 elections are rigged again? Would the ruling party favor a Mnangagwa presidency enough to sway votes his way? This will depend on whether the former VP can maintain popular support into next year, and stave off sustained civil unrest that is likely to arise should there be any perceived political suppression by the ruling party. In short, Mnangagwa's main task in the coming year will be to consolidate power, which will be a distraction from economic reform. Scenario 3: A new challenger risesA new challenger could emerge from an opposition party and curtail any leading ZANU-PF member’s ambitions of continuing a majority rule. The challenger would have a tremendous opportunity to take advantage of the ongoing division within the ruling party by distinguishing themselves from the chaos. Moreover, any new challenger could part ways with the ruling party’s policies and rescue Zimbabwe from economic turmoil should they choose to prioritize economic reform over political desires. In April this year, leaders of the two main opposition parties, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and the National People’s Front, publicly formed an alliance to challenge Mugabe and ZANU-PF in the general election next year. The parties signed a pact in the capital city to challenge the 2018 election results. Over the decades, however, the main opposition parties have also been plagued by power plays and chronic in-fighting that have led many to question their ability to adequately challenge a party that has been ruling over Zimbabwe for 37 years. Although an opposition challenger may be the breath of fresh air Zimbabwe needs to bring about dramatic reform, it is unlikely that any opposition party could unify and muster sufficient support in time for the general elections in 2018 - which in any case will be at high risk of manipulation. Scenario 4: Grace Mugabe seizes power Mr. Mugabe has positioned his wife - currently reported to be facing prosecution - to become the next leader of Zimbabwe. In the unlikely event that she won an election, she would face civil unrest and her government would likely fail to pursue much needed economic reform.In recent years, Grace moved from political obscurity to the top ranks of ZANU-PF in a relatively short period of time. She leads ZANU-PF’s Women’s League, which has publicly supported the idea of Mrs. Mugabe replacing Mnangagwa as the next VP. She also leads a splinter group of the ruling party, the so-called “Generation 40” faction (G40). This informal group markets itself as comprising younger and more educated members of the ZANU-PF party, and aims to replace the aging, less flexible members of the ruling party. Despite apparently being detained during the coup alongside members of G40, Mrs. Mugabe cannot be entirely dismissed from the succession equation. Robert Mugabe may well attempt to negotiate her release as a condition of him stepping down, leaving her free to run in the 2018 elections should that option be on the cards. In the highly unlikely event that Mrs. Mugabe did become president, widespread civil unrest would almost certainly ensue. Public polls indicate Zimbabweans have little desire to willingly accept a Mugabe dynasty. Many Zimbabweans perceive the first lady to be corrupt. Mrs. Mugabe, nicknamed “Gucci Grace,” has dominated local headlines over the years with her extravagant lifestyle, allegedly paid for by the embezzlement of the country’s assets. Thus, the first lady has very little popular support. Economic outlook: Zimbabwe has struggled with an economic crisis for decades. Cash shortages, widespread corruption and food scarcity have plagued the country, while the Mugabe administration has done little to alleviate the emergency. Following the 2018 elections, any successor of Mr. Mugabe could secure their political future by creating economic policies to adequately address Zimbabwe’s financial crisis. The new administration should specifically focus on high public spending and a growing foreign and domestic debt. The National Treasury could significantly curtail public spending by slashing extraordinarily high government salaries to reign in the fiscal deficit. The country’s GDP growth is forecast to slightly improve absent any change in the current administration, but a newcomer could encourage policies to raise GDP levels to Zimbabwe’s full potential. Furthermore, Zimbabwe’s central bank could halt injecting any further liquidity into the market by limiting currency over-printing and preventing another episode of hyperinflation experienced more than a decade ago. There is no argument that Robert Mugabe’s reign is coming to an end. Whether the end of his presidency has already occurred, or occurs in the very near feature, means little for long-term political risk. What matters most is if the Mugabe legacy continues. Whoever is next in line to become Zimbabwe’s next president will face the challenge of fixing damage done during the Mugabe years. Key indicators to watch out for will be whether Mugabe clarifies his intentions in the next few days; whether quick action is taken to address corruption; whether Zimbabwe's political transition receives support from the international community; and whether the elections in 2018 are free and fair. This is the sequence of events that would give Zimbabwe the best chance at a brighter future. At present however, short-term chaos, and cosmetic changes to the status quo in the longer term, seem to be the most likely outcome. When terrible government destroys a country
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas With the help of China, the aim is turn the century-old Abadan refinery from a millstone costing the government up to $700 million a year into a cash cow that can meet Iran’s domestic demand for better quality fuel rather than relying on imports. - Bloomberg
Editorial: His nation is a smoldering ruin, much of it held by rival armed factions, domestic or foreign. Half the population is displaced, hundreds of thousands have died and much of the West regards him as a tyrant and human rights abuser. But Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have survived the war and is likely to hold onto power for the foreseeable future. - Associated Press Riyad Hijab, the head of Syria's main opposition bloc, has resigned before a conference scheduled in Saudi Arabia aimed at "unifying" various groups opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. - Al Jazeera Russia, Iran, Turkey shape Syria's future in Sochi
Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi today for a trilateral summit on the war in Syria. Putin held a surprise meeting with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on Monday in Sochi where he all but declared victory in the Syrian civil war. Following the meeting, the Russian president called key stakeholders in the conflict, including US President Donald Trump, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Qatari Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Erdogan. The Russian, Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers had previously met in Turkey over the weekend to prepare for the summit. Putin also hopes to convene a Syrian peace conference in Russia with key stakeholders in December but the idea has faced Turkish resistance over the proposed inclusion of Syrian Kurds. Read More AMISOM: A Decade into the Fight Against Al Shabaab By Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief: “The multinational peacekeeping force known as AMISOM has been losing the momentum in its battle against al Shabaab in Somalia, as evidenced by the massive Oct. 14th truck bomb that killed more than 350 people in the capital Mogadishu. While AMISOM – the African Union Mission in Somalia – was initially successful in rooting out the group from southern Somalia, it can’t address the root cause that has given al Shabaab purchase on the population: a weak Somali central government that is still unable to provide services or security to its people.”
Sino-Russian co-development of wide-body still at early stage BY ASIA TIMES STAFF Russia will contribute technology while Beijing will bear the majority of the investment, and the big planes will be assembled at Comac's Shanghai plant China's Vision for the Next 30 Years
Zhang Jun considers what the country is likely to achieve in the next 30 years – and what could stand in its way. If America Topples North Korea and Iran, What Happens Next?
By George Perkovich, The National Interest: “Removing hostile regimes, including by means of military action, is the logical solution if one concludes that a “rogue state” cannot be deterred. This thinking drove the George W. Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq. Many champions of that operation have now reemerged within the Trump administration and on its friendly periphery. North Korea and Iran are the two remaining members of President Bush’s “Axis of Evil.””
South Korea’s top official on North Korea said that rapid advances in Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons program this year have revived the Kim regime’s long-dormant ambitions of unifying the Korean Peninsula on its terms. But Cho Myoung-gyon, the South’s unification minister, dismissed those ambitions as unrealistic during an interview Thursday, instead urging North Korea to sit down with Seoul for talks. - Wall Street Journal China said Thursday that it will stick by its “freeze-for-freeze” proposal to de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, contradicting a suggestion by President Trump that it had turned against the plan. - Washington Post PUTIN DISPLAYS BANNED NUKES WHILE BLOCKING U.N. CHEMICAL WAR & WHAT OF POLISH NATIONALISM11/20/2017
Russia blocked a U.S.-written resolution at the United Nations Security Council on Thursday that would have extended an international investigation into chemical weapons use in Syria, angering diplomats who said Moscow was making it difficult to prevent future attacks. - Washington Post The U.S. is laying the groundwork to build a type of missile banned by a Cold War-era pact unless Russia abandons its own pursuit of the weapons, U.S. officials said. - Wall Street Journal Russia's New Tu-160M2: Are Moscow's Bomber Ambitions Realistic? By Joseph Trevithick, The WarZone: “The new White Swans will supposedly carry a powerful new defensive system that the KRET executive boasted could “protect against all possible types of missiles.” Neither Mikheyev nor TASS offered any specific details about this particular system, but there are a number of possibilities.” How Americans Became Vulnerable to Russian Disinformation
Kent Harrington says the Kremlin's interference in the 2016 US presidential election was symptomatic of bigger problems. Area 45: The Future Of Germany Featuring Russell Berman interview with Russell A. Berman via Area 45 Will Germany be in ashes after Angela Merkel’s fourth term? Angela Merkel's New Germany Marcel Fratzscher says that the German chancellor's most consequential achievement is not economic. ![]()
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Merkel Signals Readiness For New Election After Coalition Talks Collapse quoting Josef Joffe via Reuters Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would prefer a new election to ruling with a minority after talks on forming a three-way coalition failed overnight, but Germany’s president told parties they owed it to voters to try to form a government. The Beginning Of The End Of Angela Merkel by Josef Joffe via Politico For all her Teflon-like invulnerability, the talks’ collapse leaves the chancellor gravely wounded. Merkel Marooned quoting Josef Joffe via National Review When Christian Lindner, leader of Germany’s market-minded Free Democrat party, walked out of the three-party negotiations intended to forge a new federal government from the fragmented political spectrum that emerged from the recent elections, he signaled the end of Germany’s post-war political settlement — one of almost astounding stability. Germany's Götterdämmerung Hans-Werner Sinn welcomes the prospect of a minority government, especially if genuine public debate returns to the Bundestag. The Danger of a Post-German Europe Ana Palacio implores EU countries to work actively to re-engage the bloc's reluctant leader. A New Grand Coalition for Germany – and Europe
Jeffrey Sachs thinks the stakes are too high – in Europe and globally – not to reprise the previous CDU/CSU-SPD government. Zimbabwe's State Capture Battle: Lessons For SA
quoting Niall Ferguson via News 24 The coup d'état in Zimbabwe – call it bloodless, benevolent, calm or whatever – holds so many lessons for South Africa. Doing Nothing, Trump May Witness US Goal In Mugabe's Ouster quoting Condoleezza Rice via VOA News Without lifting a finger, the Trump administration may be witnessing the culmination of nearly two decades of U.S. efforts to pry Zimbabwe from the powerful grasp of its authoritarian President Robert Mugabe.
Egypt faces high expectations from Saudi Arabia and its other Gulf Arab benefactors that it will have their back as tensions rise with their rival Iran, including throwing the weight of its military — the largest standing Arab army — into the crisis if needed. - Associated Press
GERMAN SPY CHIEF WARNS ABOUT RUSSIA
Germany’s spy chief has warned that Russia should be seen as a “potential danger” rather than as a partner in building European security and said its big military exercise in summer showed an alarmingly high level of modernization in its armed forces. - Reuters Suicide bomb attackers killed 10 people and wounded 30 in the northeast Nigerian city of Maiduguri on Wednesday, an emergency agency official said. - Reuters
The U.S. embassy in Liberia on Wednesday defended the credibility of last month’s presidential election there, amid allegations of irregularities and fraud that have delayed a run-off poll. - Reuters President Robert Mugabe, who has ruthlessly ruled Zimbabwe for nearly four decades as one of Africa’s last liberation leaders still in power, was under house arrest on Wednesday, hours after the military announced it had taken him into custody in what appeared to be a coup. - New York Times
Op-Ed: President Trump’s decision to reevaluate the nuclear deal was a step forward for the West’s efforts to contain Iran, but the White House took two steps back with its new deal with Russia over Syria. - New York Post
The military seized control in Zimbabwe. Although it released a statement saying this was not a coup, the army seized state TV and put soldiers and tanks onto the streets of the capital, Harare. An army spokesman said president Robert Mugabe, in power since 1980, is safe and in custody. Army chief Constantine Chiwenga is believed to back vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was sacked recently by Mugabe in favour of his wife, Grace.
Of Culture And Structure
quoting Larry Diamond via The Nation In chapter three of his classic, ‘Class, Ethnicity and Democracy in Nigeria’, which focuses on the failure of Nigeria’s first republic but has enduring lessons for the country’s contemporary politics, Professor Larry Diamond opens with quotes from two of the country’s nationalist leaders that are relevant to current debates on constitutional re-engineering or restructuring of Nigeria. The first is an excerpt from Dr. Nnmadi Azikiwe’s inaugural address as Governor-General of Nigeria in 1960.
Ignorance And Caricatures Mar Our Understanding Of Russian Foreign Policy
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine Online All it took to transform Vladimir Putin from a candidate for a foreign policy “reset” into a global villain was a change in presidents.
'Why The Response To The Centenary Is Muted' - The Russian Revolution And Its Legacy
featuring Stephen Kotkin via The Guardian One hundred years after the Bolshevik revolt, books by Masha Gessen, Serhii Plokhy, Yuri Slezkine and Stephen Kotkin shed light on Soviet socialism’s birth and death.
Is The Russian Revolution Over Yet?
quoting Stephen Kotkin via The University of Melbourne One hundred years after Red October, when Vladimir Lenin and his Bolsheviks overthrew the Tsarist autocracy, the revolution is still a difficult subject for modern Russia.
100 Years Later: Four Books About The 1917 Russian Revolution
mentioning Robert Service via Dan's Papers One hundred years ago today—November 7, 1917—what began as a celebration of International Women’s Day six months earlier culminated in the radical left government, led by Vladimir Lenin and his Bolshevik Party, taking complete power over the vast Russian Empire, nearly one-sixth of all the earth’s land, controlled for three centuries by the Romanov dynasty. Dozens of books have been published about the Russian Revolution this year in effort to explain the intricate and complex events of 1917. We’ve put together a short list of our favorites.
Came the Revolution: The Distressing Phenomenon of Nostalgia for Communism
By Clifford D. May, The Washington Times: “My political orientation has evolved slowly over decades. With one exception: I became anti-Soviet and anti-Communist overnight. More quickly than that, actually.”
Hoover Fellow Stephen Kotkin's New Book Aims To Paint A Full Picture Of Joseph Stalin
featuring Stephen Kotkin via The Daily Princetonian
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