“Making a ceasefire hold is a critical part of the peace process but difficult to implement. Neither side controls all combatants that come under their overall umbrellas and there are spoilers on both sides. On the Houthi side, for example, it is not clear how committed their military commanders really are to implementing a ceasefire or how committed the group is to making significant compromises and implementing them in political negotiations. The Houthis are aligned with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, but so far he has been left out of some of the talks between Houthis and Saudi Arabia that had led to the current ceasefire and the opportunity to relaunch the political process. As long as he is left out, he has the incentive to be a spoiler -- a dangerous one. On the government side, things are not any easier. President Hadi said last week that he will go to Kuwait to achieve peace. But his insistence that a political process can proceed only if the Houthis fully implement UN Security Council Resolution 2216, including disarming and withdrawing their forces from seized territory, is unrealistic. Hadi’s government and the various groups loosely fighting under its umbrella have few incentives to end combat as long as Saudi Arabia is willing to support their war effort. The government’s willingness to compromise in the UN talks in Kuwait is directly linked to how much pressure Saudi Arabia is willing to apply towards a negotiated settlement.”
Katherine Zimmerman writes: The U.S. must develop a strategy to help find a negotiated settlement of the Yemeni conflict acceptable to the people and not just to the elites. Sound American strategy would reach out to the al Houthis along with other sub-state actors in Yemen, seek common ground with them, and work to facilitate a meaningful resolution of the conflict—including the underlying popular grievances that are driving it—as the best way to prevent Iran from turning its rhetoric into reality. – AEI’s Critical Threats Project Can the Kuwait Peace Talks Break Yemen’s Deadlock?” (Fakhri al-Arashi interviewing April Longley Alley, National Yemen)
“Making a ceasefire hold is a critical part of the peace process but difficult to implement. Neither side controls all combatants that come under their overall umbrellas and there are spoilers on both sides. On the Houthi side, for example, it is not clear how committed their military commanders really are to implementing a ceasefire or how committed the group is to making significant compromises and implementing them in political negotiations. The Houthis are aligned with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, but so far he has been left out of some of the talks between Houthis and Saudi Arabia that had led to the current ceasefire and the opportunity to relaunch the political process. As long as he is left out, he has the incentive to be a spoiler -- a dangerous one. On the government side, things are not any easier. President Hadi said last week that he will go to Kuwait to achieve peace. But his insistence that a political process can proceed only if the Houthis fully implement UN Security Council Resolution 2216, including disarming and withdrawing their forces from seized territory, is unrealistic. Hadi’s government and the various groups loosely fighting under its umbrella have few incentives to end combat as long as Saudi Arabia is willing to support their war effort. The government’s willingness to compromise in the UN talks in Kuwait is directly linked to how much pressure Saudi Arabia is willing to apply towards a negotiated settlement.”
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Failed attempts to oust the speaker of parliament and a fresh ultimatum from an influential Shiite cleric have left Iraq in a state of political limbo. Backroom negotiations continued late into the night Saturday between Iraq's powerful political blocs after lawmakers attempting to oust speaker Selim al-Jabouri failed to maintain quorum. – Associated Press U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is in Iraq today to discuss ongoing operations against the Islamic State as Iraqi forces with coalition support continue to isolate the Islamic State-occupied city of Mosul. He will meet with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Defense Minister Khaled al-Obaidi to discuss additional capabilities the United States is willing to bring to the fight. "We are looking to do more," Carter told reporters at an airbase near Abu Dhabi before departing to Iraq. "That ranges from in the air to on the ground. You should expect to see us doing more."
Carter’s visit coincides with an ongoing political crisis. Hundreds of protesters rallied in Baghdad over the weekend in support of a proposed slate of non-partisan cabinet officials proposed by Abadi that the parliament has refused to confirm. The new government has the support of influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has called for pro-reform protests and says he will mobilize much larger protests if the parliament fails to approve the cabinet by tomorrow. [Russia’s] support, according to numerous military analysts and diplomatic sources, amounts to virtually the same level of engagement since Russia first deployed in Syria in September. The tenor has changed, however. Syria is gradually becoming another more secretive, hybrid war of the sort that fits into Mr. Putin’s comfort zone, they said. – New York Times
“The Hell After ISIS” (Anand Gopal, The Atlantic) “Six months earlier, isis had seized their village, in Anbar province, the Sunni heartland of Iraq, blowing up houses and executing civilians as they fled. A few hundred families had managed to escape and were now scattered across Iraq. Many had wound up in squalid refugee camps near the front lines. The Sabars considered themselves lucky to have landed in Baghdad, a city solidly under the control of anti-isis forces. But they soon realized that their new home offered little shelter from the conflicts erupting on distant battlefields. As the Islamic State spread its brand of Sunni extremism, their new Shiite neighbors seemed to cast blame on all Sunnis, even those who had lost homes or loved ones to isis. By March, when isis was battling Iraqi forces in Tikrit, 120 miles north, Falah could feel the city changing. In the market, neighbors began to look away from him. At police checkpoints, the family’s IDs were examined more closely. Sometimes, beige pickup trucks with burly Shiite militiamen in the back circled the block. Black banners proclaiming Oh Hussein! -- the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, revered by Shias -- began appearing on the storefronts of Sunni-owned businesses. Falah wondered whether the flags were taunts, or had been placed there for protection by the shopkeepers themselves.” “Dictators don’t stabilize the Middle East. They Just Create More Terrorists.“ (Lauren Kosa, Washington Post)
“Mubarak’s fierce restriction of Egypt’s political scene set the stage for Egypt’s 2011 revolution. The November 2010 elections that preceded the revolution were considered to be among the most fraudulent in Egypt’s modern history. Egyptians became convinced that the Mubarak government was willing to take any measure to preserve its power, even brutality against its own citizens. The beating to death by police of 28-year-old Egyptian Khaled Said in 2010, whose image was widely circulated, was a trigger for Egyptians’ discontent to boil over into a demand for change. Or as one Egyptian friend put it to me, ‘we couldn’t get that picture out of our heads.’ With little prospect for reform, the government’s legitimacy crumbled. In other words: Mubarak created the chaos that ensued when he was ousted. With the increased concern about terrorism, this lesson is more important than ever. Allying ourselves with regional strongmen may make things stable in the short run, but it hurts us in the long run. Terrorism flourishes in places where the government is no longer seen as being on the side of the people. Human rights play an important role in that equation.” Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force who is subject to a U.N. international travel ban, is reportedly in Moscow to meet with Russian officials about the delivery of S-300 air-defense systems to Iran and other matters.
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have shifted gears and began an offensive against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula forces occupying large swaths of the country; this morning, Yemeni troops with close air support seized the AQAP-occupied city of Houta, the capital of Lahj province.
The Iraqi parliament voted to remove its speaker, Salim al-Juburi, who had threatened to dissolve the parliament if it remained intransigent on the issue of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s proposed cabinet reform; it is unclear whether the parliament had a quorum to vote on Juburi’s removal and the act may be invalidated.
Saudi Arabia is expected to release the full details of its economic reform program, called the National Transition Plan, soon; ministers were required to submit proposals by the end of March for review, and Saudi officials are reportedly working with business consultants and looking to countries like Malaysia as a model.
Frederic Hof writes: The prospect for a negotiated political transition is not in the hands of those who want it but in the hands of those who have opposed it. For the Geneva talks to succeed, those who have facilitated mass murder must now voluntarily act with decency and wisdom. If nothing is impossible, this comes very, very close – Foreign Policy
Hof also writes: These two pillars of strategy – civilian protection and killing ISIS – can put Syria on a pathway to political compromise, reconstruction, and reconciliation. Washington-GCC cooperation in creating this pathway is, thanks to destructively differing obsessions with Iran, painfully overdue. It should be delayed no further. – Atlantic Council The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has released a new report on Tunisia after the Arab Spring uprising, "Between Peril and Promise: A New Framework for Partnership With Tunisia." The report argues that the hopes of the Arab Spring, which began in Tunisia, remains unfulfilled as the Tunisian economy flounders, security threats from the Islamic State are on the rise, and the corruption continues.
Foreign Policy Institute: Islam & Human Capital Summary: FPI Visiting Scholar Mark Moyar writes: Through training, education, and other forms of support, the United States can and should transform other nations so that, like South Korea and Chile, they cease requiring foreign assistance and instead become trade partners, military allies, and providers of foreign assistance to nations that still need it. Richard Fontaine writes: Embracing our founding ideals is the surest path to national greatness. This means growing and deepening our unique democracy. It means engaging with the world, and seeking to align the nation’s values and interests. And it means refusing to rest content; the American project remains forever unfinished. – War on the Rocks
New Saudi regulations will strip the Committee for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, the kingdom’s religious police, of much of its power.
Al Qaeda resurgent in Afghanistan
Al Qaeda’s network in Afghanistan is slowly expanding, according to a CNN report on Wednesday (CNN). Acting Defense Minister Masoom Stanikzai told CNN, "They are working behind other networks, giving them support and the experience they had in different places. And double their resources and recruitment and other things. That is how -- they are not talking too much. They are not making press statements. It is a big threat." Major General Jeff Buchanan, Deputy Chief of Staff for the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, concurred saying, "If you go back to last year, there were a lot of intel estimates that said within Afghanistan al Qaeda probably has 50 to 100 members, but in this one camp we found more than 150," referring to the recent discovery and destruction of an al Qaeda training camp in Kandahar province. U.S. officials told CNN the number of core al Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan could be as high as 300, but that number does include other facilitators and sympathizers in their network. Pakistani port “almost ready” as Pakistan accuses India of undermining CPEC
The recently expanded Gwadar deep water port in Pakistan that is part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is almost finished, the operator said on Tuesday (Reuters). "The port cranes are almost ready, and we are thinking that the port will be (at) full operation by the end of this year," said Zhang Baozhong, chairman and CEO of China Overseas Ports Holding Company Ltd. The port will process about one million tons of cargo next year, most of which will be incoming construction materials to be used in projects related to CPEC. Pakistan’s army chief accused regional rival India on Tuesday of attempting to undermine the $46 billion project with China (Reuters). Speaking at a development conference on the impact of CPEC, Chief of Army Staff Gen. Raheel Sharif stated, “I must highlight that India, our immediate neighbor, has openly challenged this development initiative…I would like to make a special reference to Indian intelligence agency RAW that is blatantly involved in destabilizing Pakistan. Let me make it clear that we will not allow anyone to create impediments and turbulence in any part of Pakistan." Indian authorities have not commented on the matter. Afghanistan, India, Iran finalize draft for Chabahar agreement
On Monday, officials from Afghanistan, India, and Iran met to finalize the draft of the Chabahar agreement, according to a press release from Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (TOLO News). The agreement, also known as the International Transport and Transit Corridor Agreement, is an alternative for Afghan businessmen to import and export goods through an alternative trade route to Karachi, Pakistan and other ports. The meeting was held in New Delhi and the Afghan delegation was led by Wahidullah Waisi, the head of economic cooperation department of the Afghan Foreign Ministry. “Arab Spring: Unreformed policing hampers transitions” (Yezid Sayigh, Al-Jazeera) “Three kinds of dilemmas stand in the way of security sector reform. The first is ‘hyperpoliticisation’: Every aspect of transition becomes a zero-sum contest between rival political camps, paralysing governance. For large numbers of citizens, government legitimacy is determined by its ability to repress political or social actors that are seen as threatening -- rather than on its readiness to deliver democracy, rule of law, and human rights -- resulting in a restoration of authoritarian practices. As a result, violence becomes the ‘currency’ through which both governance and opposition are exercised. The high financial cost of modernising and professionalising security sectors poses a second, ‘political economy’ dilemma.” William J. Burns and Marwan Muasher write: Five years after igniting the Arab Awakening and inspiring the world, the bloom has come off the Jasmine Revolution. A combination of internal headwinds and regional whirlwinds are extinguishing Tunisian hopes for a consolidated new social contract. “Each of us here is a time bomb,” warned one protest organizer in the town of Kasserine. – Washington Post
“How to Preserve the Fragile Calm at Jerusalem’s Holy Esplanade” (International Crisis Group)
“The real bind is that Israel in effect has annexed East Jerusalem, so even were the government much less sympathetic to the religious Zionist agenda, it would have to jump through hoops at the Esplanade to avoid implementing Israeli domestic law, which not surprisingly provides for Jewish access to and worship at Jewish holy sites. But for Jerusalem’s Palestinians, the PA and Jordan -- and so for Netanyahu to keep relations with them even -- the Esplanade must be treated according to its internationally-recognised status: as occupied territory. Until Israel reaches a formal arrangement with the PLO and Jordan -- which need not be a final status agreement -- that binds its conduct there no less thoroughly than its other laws do, every prime minister will be forced to balance competing interests. Politicians and security officials have reacted by making and remaking policy on the fly, in secret and, in Israel’s case, sometimes in apparent violation of domestic law. The commitment to the discreet understandings is above all between Netanyahu and the king, not Israel and Jordan. So long as they prioritise their personal relations and impose their will on their domestic systems, their agreement will hold. But if their calculations change, or one of their tenures ends, the understandings could evaporate, and with them, the prospects for stability.” NATO assessment finds militants operating in 20 Afghan provinces A NATO assessment in Afghanistan finds that militants are operating in at least 20 provinces across the country (TOLO News). The findings reveal that 15 provinces are currently under Taliban threat, while foreign militant groups such as the Pakistani Taliban, al Qaeda, and a cohort of the Islamic State are gaining traction in five other provinces in the country. It is believed that Uzbekistan-based militant group Harakat-e-Islami Uzbekistan has tried to infiltrate some northern provinces in Afghanistan as well. According to NATO officials, the assessment was aimed at highlighting certain regions of the country which are under threat ahead of the alliance’s Warsaw Summit in July. After what was supposed to be a withdrawal from one of Afghanistan’s most restive provinces, about 500 soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 10th Mountain Division rushed back into Helmand in February. The Afghan army, left on its own, had failed to live up to expectations. Now, once again, U.S. forces are in place, trying to toughen up a force that remains too timid. – Washington Post
American airstrikes in the southeastern Afghan province of Paktika killed at least 17 civilians, local officials and elders said on Thursday, differing from official American and Afghan claims that only militants had been killed. – New York Times The latest in a string of unexplained deaths in the province, Reyan’s case has gained attention because of claims by family members that he was tortured by security forces – and allegations by the government that he was a Taliban sympathizer. – Los Angeles Times Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Chung, leading a team of U.S. advisers in Helmand province to help train the Afghan army's embattled 215th Corps, knows he does not have much time. If Washington sticks to its schedule for withdrawing troops, by the time his tour ends in November, the NATO training mission in Afghanistan will be nearing its end, despite local forces struggling to fight the Taliban insurgency alone. - Reuters India Pakistan comprehensive dialogue “suspended” Pakistani High Commission to New Delhi, Abdul Basit said on Thursday that at this point the India Pakistan comprehensive bilateral dialogue can be considered “suspended” (Post, BBC). Talking to the media he said, "As of now there is no date for the foreign secretary talks. I think you can say for now that the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue is suspended. Let's see if we can commence the process." However Ministry of External Affairs for India has said the countries are in communication to work out the dates for the foreign secretaries’ meeting. Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan were suspended in January after an attack on a military airbase in India, near the Pakistani border at Pathankot. A team of Pakistani experts visited India recently to help investigate this attack. In March, Pakistan claimed to have arrested an Indian “spy” in its Balochistan province. India denied the claim, however it accepted that the man arrested was an Indian citizen and retired naval officer. China & Pakistan Deal
China signs $2 billion deals with Pakistan Companies from China’s western Xinjiang region signed deals with Pakistan worth approximately $2 billion on Friday during a visit to Pakistan by Xinjiang’s Communist Party chief Zhang Chunxian (NYT). The agreements cover infrastructure, solar power, logistics, and other projects. "China and Pakistan have a deep friendship, are good neighbors, friends, brothers and partners," the official Xinjiang Daily newspaper cited Zhang as saying. |
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