Zalmay Khalilzad writes: The time has come for the U.S. and Russia to understand that the civilization crisis in the Middle East is a problem every bit as large as those faced by Europe and East Asia in the darkest periods of the 20th century. If the world's powers do not undertake the work of normalizing the Middle East, the externalities of the region's conflicts will impose an enormous cost on the U.S. and Russia alike. – Washington Times
Michael O’Hanlon and Sean Ziegler write: Syria need not be America's third big war of the twenty-first century in the Middle East; indeed, it should not be. But to have a chance of solving that acute threat to regional security—and to deprive ISIS of what is still its most compelling and important sanctuary in the world today—America needs a new strategy that includes willingness to contribute (in at least some capacity) to a substantial postwar military operation to stabilize the country. The sooner the United States says so, the sooner it can get serious about a broader strategy, and the sooner others will realize it and shape their own actions accordingly. – The National Interest
Zalmay Khalilzad writes: The time has come for the U.S. and Russia to understand that the civilization crisis in the Middle East is a problem every bit as large as those faced by Europe and East Asia in the darkest periods of the 20th century. If the world's powers do not undertake the work of normalizing the Middle East, the externalities of the region's conflicts will impose an enormous cost on the U.S. and Russia alike. – Washington Times
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“The United States can’t save Egypt from Itself” (Tamara Cofman Wittes, Markaz)
“It’s long past time for the United States to undertake a strategic review of its approach to the Middle East, one focused on building anchors of stability and sustaining reliable partners in pursuit of American priorities. Egypt, as I told The New York Times, no longer qualifies as either one. That doesn’t mean the two countries can’t continue to work together in those narrow areas where they agree on interests, priorities, and approaches. But Secretary of State Kerry’s public embrace last week of Egyptian Foreign Minister Shoukry cannot hide the facts -- there is no “back to business” option for the U.S.-Egyptian relationship, and it seems increasingly clear that even direct White House engagement would not shift Egypt’s leadership off of its self-destructive trajectory. Egypt's looming instability demands that the United States take steps now to safeguard itself from reliance on a country we cannot rescue, not least from its own leaders' worst impulses.” Tackling extremism is a political minefield in Pakistan, where politicians openly consort with leaders of banned militant groups and sympathy exists within the security forces and civil administration for perpetrators of crimes committed in the name of religion. As a result, many remain skeptical of the state's ability to put an end to the militant violence that kills hundreds of Pakistani civilians each year. – Associated Press Mumbai bombing mastermind sentenced to life imprisonment Muzammil Ansari, a man found guilty of masterminding a series of bomb blasts in Mumbai between 2002 and 2003, was sentenced to life imprisonment on Wednesday (BBC, DNA). The prosecution had argued for the death penalty for Ansari, but a special terrorism court in Mumbai denied this request. Ansari was accused of planting explosives in the bomb blasts that killed 12 people and severely injured 27. The court sentenced two other convicts, Wahid Ansari and Farhan Khot, to life imprisonment, whereas ten others involved in the attacks were given ten years each. Amnesty International: Pakistan ranks third in executions
Pakistan carried out 326 executions last year ranking third in the world for judicial killings, according to a report released by Amnesty International (Dawn). Most of those executed were not convicted of terror-related offenses, and there is evidence that some of them were juveniles when they committed their alleged crimes, according to Champa Patel, Amnesty International’s Director of South Asia Regional Office. Combined with Saudi Arabia and Iran – who occupy the number one and two spots – the three countries are responsible for almost 90 percent of total global executions. A report released in February from Reprieve, an international human rights group, and Justice Project Pakistan recorded 324 executions from Pakistan in 2015. Death toll in Pakistan rises to 92 after natural disaster The death toll rose to 92 on Wednesday after torrential rains caused flash flooding and landslides in parts of northwest Pakistan (Reuters). Most of the deaths occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province where 65 people were killed. Twelve people were killed in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and 15 people died in Gilgit-Baltistan. Rescuers continue to search for 23 people who were buried in a landslide in the northern mountains. “How united is the GCC?” (Madawi al-Rasheed, Al-Monitor)
“When Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and to a lesser extent Oman project power abroad, they are driven by their own domestic challenges rather than by a Gulf consensus. Consequently, GCC countries have adopted contradictory projects in most Arab countries such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Syria. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been determined to block the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in North Africa, but until recently Qatar was actively supporting it. With Syria, almost all GCC countries, with the exception of Oman, were keen on supporting so-called moderate rebels, a term that has become increasingly muddled since the Syrian uprising began five years ago. The sectarian agenda of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain -- each has a vested interest in depicting its own local protest as an Iranian Shiite conspiracy against it -- does not resonate well in Kuwait and Oman.” Whether feuding Libyan factions unite to combat the Islamic State will depend on the appeal of a fragile new unity government, the head of U.S. Africa Command said on Thursday, providing a guarded assessment of the prospects for local action against the militants. – Washington Post’s Checkpoint Tripoli-based Libyan Government Backtracks on Plan to Step Down Libya’s Tripoli-based National Salvation Government has quickly backed away from its plan to dissolve and clear the way for the U.N.-backed unity government, know as the Government of National Accord, to take control. A statement from National Salvation Prime Minister Khalifa Ghweil, posted on his personal website, asks his government ministers “to continue your mission in accordance with the law” and threatens to prosecute ministers who cooperate with the unity government. Ghweil’s statement contradicts an announcement posted on the National Salvation Government’s Facebook page on Tuesday that said the government would dissolve in support of the Government of National Accord to prevent further violence. Libya’s Tripoli-based National Salvation Government announced yesterday that it will step down, clearing the way for the U.N.-backed unity government, also called the Government of National Accord, to assert power in the nation’s capitol. In a statement issued on Facebook, the National Salvation Government said it was dissolving to prevent further bloodshed and called on government agencies to respect the unity government’s authority. The Government of National Accord, members of which arrived in Tripoli by boat last week, has also secured support from the Libyan Investment Authority, the National Oil Corporation, and the Central Bank. The announcement follows protests this weekend, in which National Accord Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj walked through the city and was met by supporters chanting slogans against the National Salvation Government. U.N. Libya envoy Martin Kobler, who is meeting with the unity government in Tripoli this week, said the dissolution of the National Salvation Government is “good news” but stressed that “deeds must follow words.” The unity government still faces opposition from Libya’s other rival government, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, but elements of that government, which will be folded into the unity government as the national parliament, are reportedly making “conciliatory statements.” The number of Islamic State militants in Libya has doubled in the last year or so to as many as 6,000 fighters, with aspirations to conduct attacks against the U.S. and other nations in the West, the top U.S. commander for Africa said Thursday. – Associated Press
Bonus Read: “After Lahore, the Taliban’s Rise is Pakistan Continues,” Daud Khattack by (Foreign Policy)
Death toll rises in northern Pakistan’s flash floods The death toll from torrential rains that started caused flash flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on April 4 rose to 71 on Tuesday, according to officials (RFE/RL, Indian Express). The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Disaster Management Authority said an additional 10 bodies were discovered since yesterday when the spokesman for the local disaster management authority said in a statement that "The number known to have died in rains so far in the northwest has now risen to 61 with over 350 houses damaged all over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa." U.S. Navy signs contract with Pakistan for delivery of attack helicopters The U.S. Navy awarded Pakistan a $170 million contract for the delivery of nine AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters, the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement on Monday (Dawn). This shipment falls under the Foreign Military Sales Program with Pakistan, according to the statement, which the two governments established to enhance Pakistan’s counterinsurgency and counterterrorism capabilities. The delivery is expected to be completed in September 2018. Suicide bomber kills six in northern Afghanistan
A suicide bomber on a motorbike detonated himself near a bazaar in Afghanistan’s northern Parwan province on Tuesday, killing six and wounding 26 others (NYT, Reuters). The bomber was targeting the police headquarters, according to Mohammad Sayed Seddiqi, administrative chief of Siagird district. No policemen were killed, but at least one officer was among the wounded. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. Sons of late Taliban founder appointed to leadership council Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, son of late Taliban founder Mullah Omar, was appointed on Monday as head of the group’s military commission for 15 provinces of Afghanistan (Reuters). According to Taliban spokesman Qari Yousaf Ahmadi, Yaqoob and his brother, Mullah Abdul Manan, were both called to sit on the Taliban’s leadership council, the Rahbari Shura. Members of the late founder’s family had initially claimed the leadership for Yaqoob after the discovery of Mullah Omar’s death, but agreed to swear allegiance to current Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour after he agreed to a list of their demands last year. Afghan warlord changes conditions for peace in Afghanistan Notorious Afghan warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar dropped one of his conditions for ending his war with the Afghan government, according to an associate of his group, the Hezb-i-Islami Party (NYT). According to Amin Karim, an official of the party, Hekmatyar, the party’s leader, is no longer demanding that all foreign troops leave Afghanistan. President Ashraf Ghani welcomed the shift in a statement, noting if the warlord joins the peace process, Hezb-i-Islami will be "the first group to walk through the gate.” Hekmatyar has been at war with the Afghan government for over 40 years, and his followers are responsible for the deaths of thousands. Russia will reportedly begin delivering S-300 air defense missiles to Iran in the next few days; Iran and Russia agreed on the sale of the missiles in 2007, but the delivery was delayed by the implementation international sanctions targeting Iran.
A top Saudi prince has announced new elements of a plan to reduce the kingdom’s heavy dependence on oil, amid a drop in world prices that has sent shock waves through the Saudi economy. – New York Times Saudi Arabia Lays Out Economic Plan, New Investments in Egypt
Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the details of the country’s ambitious economic reform program with Bloomberg last week. Components of the plan include a green card-like system for foreign workers, restructuring subsidies, and imposing levies on sugary drinks and luxury items, in addition to a previously announced value-added tax. Saudi officials expect the plan to generate more than $100 billion a year to fund a sovereign wealth fund to underwrite the diversification of the country’s economy away from oil dependence, though the plan includes near-term debt increases. King Salman will travel to Egypt this week to shore up relations with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Saudi Arabia is expected to announce a $20 billion deal to finance Egypt’s oil needs, as well as another $5 billion in other investments. Mark Dubowitz and Annie Fixler write: The future success of Iran’s economy depends on privatization, encouraging competition, addressing corruption, recapitalizing banks, and strengthening the rule of law. If Tehran wants to encourage foreign investment and alleviate international banks’ concerns, it also needs to end its support for terrorism, missile development, and destabilizing regional activities, and to reduce the economic power of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and the supreme leader’s business empire. All of these increase the risks of investing in the Islamic Republic, regardless of what deal sweeteners the White House provides. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies Eli Lake writes: I should have been more suspicious when no one actually had to sign anything at the end of the negotiations or when the "deal" was not submitted to the Senate as a treaty for ratification. And while it's true that the Iranians have disposed of nuclear material, modified sites and allowed more monitoring, they also keep haggling over the terms – Bloomberg View
Ilan Berman writes: For President Obama, the JCPOA represents a critical achievement and lies at the center of his administration’s foreign-policy legacy. It stands to reason that the White House believes it must be preserved at all costs. But it is only now becoming apparent that the price the president is willing to pay is nothing less than the integrity of U.S. sanctions. – National Review Online War on the Rocks (free subscription)
How Ankara’s Policy Choices Enabled Its Terrorism Problem” (Dov Friedman, War on the Rocks) “Turkey faces threats as intractable as they are disquieting, yet its leaders seem keener to manage political outcomes than remedy the violence’s underlying causes. President Erdogan’s conflation of terrorist attacks facing Turkey did not begin after the March bombings. After October’s twin attacks on the Ankara rally, Erdogan affirmed that he saw no distinction between the attacks on the rally and the attacks targeting Turkish soldiers and police -- ignoring clear differences between the perpetrators and driving forces behind the attacks. Not two weeks later, in reference to the same bombing, Erdogan named ISIL, the PKK, the Democratic Union Party (the PYD, a Syrian Kurdish PKK-affiliated group), and the Assad regime’s intelligence service as co-conspirators. After the Istiklal bombing, a Turkish official immediately fingered the PKK as prime suspects. Curiously, he made statements to the press within three hours of the 11 AM attack, despite the attack’s similarities to January’s Sultanahmet bombing. The official’s response raised questions about the government’s effort to both muddle the facts and deflect attention from another ISIL attack on Turkish soil.” Intelligence officials tell the Washington Post that the Islamic State is going broke as coalition airstrikes hit its oil revenue and territorial losses rob the self-styled caliphate of ever greater portions of its tax base. The signs of strain have been popping up in the accounts of defectors, who report that fighters -- who've already seen their salaries cut in half -- are now going months without paychecks. The Islamic State has responded by trying to squeeze more money from taxes, but the Iraqi government's cancellation of salary payments to employees in Mosul cut off a key source of tax revenue. Airstrikes against the jihadist group's oil infrastructure has reportedly cut their revenue from energy sources in half.
Modi makes first official visit to Saudi Arabia
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with King Salman of Saudi Arabia on Sunday, during his first official visit to the country (Post, NYT). Saudi Arabia is a major business partner for India with trade between the two countries reaching $39 billion in 2014. Saudi Arabia is also India's largest oil supplier and accounts for nearly 19 percent of India's oil imports. During the meeting, the sides signed five agreements, including plans to cooperate in intelligence sharing related to terror financing and money laundering, as well as a labor cooperation agreement. Saudi Arabia is home to a large number of South Asian laborers. ‘Panama Papers’ reveal Sharif family’s offshore holdings The family of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was among the dozens implicated in a massive leak of secret files from a Panamanian law firm that specializes in offshore tax havens (Dawn). According to documents available on the website of the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists -- one of the approximately 100 news organizations that worked on mining the data – Nawaz’s children Mariam, Hasan, and Hussain “were owners or had the right to authorize transactions for several companies.” The Panama Papers -- one of the biggest leaks in history according to the Guardian -- are not necessarily evidence of wrongdoing. Responding to the allegations of tax evasion on Monday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's son, Hussain Nawaz Sharif, told television channel Geo that his family had done "nothing wrong" as they defended their ownership of offshore companies. "It is according to British law and laws of other countries that it is a legal way to avoid unnecessary tax via offshore companies,” Hussain said, referencing the London real estate owned by him and his brother Hasan. He left Pakistan in 1992 and is therefore not resident, Hussain said, adding that Pakistani tax law "says that if you are not staying in Pakistan for more than 138 days, then you are not required to declare your assets.” Floods kill 45 in northwest Pakistan Flash flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province killed at least 45 people on Sunday and injured 34, according to officials (NYT). Residents of villages close to rivers in the province were given warnings to vacate and leave for safer places, said a Pakistani national disaster management official, Latif ur Rehman. Pre-monsoon rains like the downpour that triggered the floods frequently cause damage in Pakistan, particularly in rural villages with minimal infrastructure. Forty years worth of records from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca were leaked to German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung and the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. The 11.5 million documents, called the ‘Panama Papers,’ detail decades of the firm’s creation of shell companies and offshore accounts to allow their clients to launder money, dodge taxes, and avoid sanctions. Several Arab politicians and royals are listed in Mossack Fonseca’s books, including King Salman of Saudi Arabia, former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, former emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, former Prime Minister of Qatar Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, former Prime Minister of Jordan Ali Abu al-Ragheb, two cousins of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the son of ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Hundreds of journalists around the world are reporting on a massive leak of documents from a Panamanian law firm that reveals secretive offshore dealings by heads of state, oligarchs, criminals, athletes, and movie stars. Süddeutsche Zeitung explains how the leak happened, and the Guardian offers a guide to the findings -- including revelations about scandalous links to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Associated Press reports on documents that implicate Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Panama: A source inside the Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca has leaked 11 million documents to the media that show how the company helped clients launder money, evade taxes, and get around sanctions. The documents cover the last 40 years of the firm’s day-to-day business.
Mossack Fonseca is known for its services in setting up shell companies for wealthy individuals who want to evade taxes or international sanctions. Its clientele includes family members and associates of former Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddafi, and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Pakistani investigators acknowledge involvement of Pakistani nationals in Pathankot attack A joint team of Indian and Pakistani officials investigating the Pathankot incident acknowledged the involvement of Pakistani nationals in the January terrorist attack on the northwestern Indian military airbase (HT, NDTV). The joint investigative team submitted a written request to India's National Investigation Agency (NIA) under Section 188 of Pakistan's criminal code, which applies to Pakistani nationals who commit crimes outside of the country. This request amounts to a formal recognition that Pakistani nationals played a role in the attack, according to a senior NIA official. Pakistani investigators concluded their tour of the Indian base on Thursday, and Indian investigators are expected to travel to Pakistan soon to continue their joint investigation. The attack on Pathankot lasted from Jan. 2 to Jan. 5 and resulted in the deaths of seven Indian military personnel. Indian authorities have accused Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed of orchestrating the attack. The Pakistan Time Bomb, Sol Sanders
http://acdemocracy.org/a-pakistan-time-bomb/?utm_source=A+Pakistan+Time-Bomb%3F*&utm_campaign=A+Pakistan+Time+Bomb%3F+&utm_medium=email The Islamic State, however, has been able to infiltrate the kingdom through digital recruiting, and it has found devotees willing to kill fellow Sunnis, as well as Shiites, to destabilize the monarchy. – New York Times
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia, whose relationship has hit a new low during the Obama administration because of differences over Iran, are nonetheless putting up a united front when it comes to sanctioning terrorist networks. - Politico Britain is considering stepping up its presence in the Persian Gulf region with the creation of a permanent army training base in Oman, Defence Secretary Michael Fallon said Thursday during a visit to the country. – Defense News Moqtada al-Sadr, the troublesome cleric whose militia repeatedly battled U.S. troops more than a decade ago, is back in action in Iraq — this time as a champion of political reforms. – Washington Post
The Pentagon is finalizing plans to deploy more American ground forces to support the Iraqi army’s offensive to seal off and retake the Islamic State stronghold in Mosul, top defense officials said. – Military Times A Marine artillery unit in northern Iraq has continued to come under sporadic attack while supporting Iraqi troops since Staff Sgt. Louis F. Cardin was killed eight and others were wounded on March 19 by ISIS rocket fire, a top coalition commander said Thursday. – Military.com Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi has named 14 new cabinet ministers who he said are the kinds of policy experts protesters have been demanding for months to fight corruption in the government. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Iraq's prime minister proposed a new Cabinet lineup to the country's lawmakers on Thursday, after weeks of pressure from supporters of a radical Shiite cleric who have staged rallies in the Iraqi capital and a sit-in next to the government headquarters to demand reforms. – Associated Press Tens of thousands of trapped civilians have stalled Iraqi forces fighting the Islamic State group in the country's western Anbar province, the spokesman for Iraq's elite counterterrorism forces told the Associated Press Friday. – Associated Press |
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