TRUMP'S SYRIAN PULLOUT IS RIGHT & HOW GULF PERSIAN PETROL MONARCHIES WILL FILL VOID IN SYRIA1/8/2019
The clash between Trump and his generals
(Military Times) A prominent retired four-star admiral says that several former generals have left President Donald Trump’s administration because their advice and many years of military experience did not make a difference in swaying the White House on key national security issues.
Mattis, Kelly marched to the establishment beat. Trump was right to fire them
(Fox News) What is it with these generals? Imagine their reaction if someone under their command behaved like they did with President Trump.
Trump's Instincts Are Correct On Syria, If Not His Haste
by Thomas H. Henriksen via The Hill President Trump’s abrupt announcement last month to yank U.S. military forces from their fight against the Islamic State in Syria plunged the American foreign policy establishment into near-hysteria. Now, it seems that the White House is having second thoughts about a hasty withdrawal after all.
Gary Schmitt notes that while Trump was decisive, he was also irresponsible. As every member of his national security team has explained, ISIS is not defeated, Iran’s sway in the Levant will only grow if the US leaves, and abandoning the Syrian Kurds will be another example of Washington’s lack of seriousness when it comes to backing partners and allies. Read more here.
President Trump has presented Americans with a clarifying moment. Should the United States retreat into an "America First" isolationist shell, or should it remain engaged with the world? In a Hill op-ed, Fred Kagan argues that those on both sides of the political aisle who see the dangers of the Syria withdrawal must unite to recreate a world in which the US and its ideals can once again be safe and ultimately thrive. By uniting, the US has every hope of succeeding. If it does not, the US is doomed. Finish here. Up until his decision to draw down troops from Syria, President Trump had been the anti-Obama — talking a foolish game that masked a serious policy, writes Danielle Pletka for AEIdeas. However, by pulling out of Syria, Trump has ensured a continued threat to US interests and a victory for Iran and terrorists. Continue the piece here. In a Washington Post op-ed, Marc Thiessen points out that Iran, Russia, the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and ISIS are all celebrating Trump’s decision to pull troops from Syria. A US withdrawal not only removes pressure on ISIS, but also creates a vacuum to be filled by the world’s worst actors. Al Qaeda will have a haven. Iran and its terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, will establish forward operating bases. Turkey will go after US-trained Kurdish fighters. And the Assad regime will resume its campaign of atrocities against Syrian citizens. When your enemies are cheering, you have made a mistake. Learn more here. The Islamic State is not defeated in Syria. Or anywhere else. In an AEIdeas blog, Critical Threats Project Senior Analyst Emily Estelle explains that ISIS is alive and well in both Syria and Africa. The conditions that permitted the group’s rise remain, and the Salafi-jihadi threat will grow if the US convinces itself that the Islamic State is “defeated.” Read the full blog here and watch Estelle discuss ISIS in Syria on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” here.
The diminished economic role of the United States in the Middle East allows regional powers and China to redirect the future of economic development in the region, writes Karen Young for Lawfare. The Sino-Arab Gulf visions share a strong belief in the state’s role in economic growth and the ability to direct state resources for political goals and domestic economic stability. What is absent, however, is a standard framework of development finance on shared international norms of multilateral institutions. Read more about the Sino-Arab Gulf visions of economic development here.
What will Iran’s looming civil war look like? In a National Interest op-ed Michael Rubinexplains that there are ample signs that Iranian security forces are beginning to lose their grip. Not only do the economic protests that began nearly a year ago continue sporadically, but in recent months, terrorists and insurgents have grown increasingly bold along Iran’s periphery. As the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s health waivers, the central government’s control appears increasingly weak. Continue here. In an AEIdeas blog, Karen Young explains that there are now two kinds of intra–Gulf Cooperation Council rivalries. First is the long-standing “boys with toys” competition that plays out in the accumulation of professional sports events from Formula 1 races to hosting the World Cup — a soft power projection of brand association. The second arena of competition, however, is much more impactful and long-standing: the Gulf States are engaged in a battle of economic intervention. Learn more about the rivalries here.
Options for the U.S. Middle East Strategic Alliance
By Colby Connelly, Divergent Options: “How to approach Iranian influence is one issue among others that has contributed to the ongoing boycott of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017. The Trump Administration has encouraged a settlement to the dispute but has made little headway." Israel’s regional cooperation minister said Israel is ready to move ahead with a multibillion dollar project with Jordan to pipe water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, an idea that’s been on the drawing board for years. – Bloomberg David Makovsky and Dennis Ross write: With the Russians now adopting a tougher policy toward Israel’s freedom of action in Syria and Lebanon, how do Netanyahu and other candidates propose to deal with them? The challenge is especially acute because the Trump administration with its withdrawal from Syria is signaling to everyone, including the Russians, that it sees no interests in Syria regardless of whether Israel and Jordan are likely to face Iranian-backed threats from there. – Ynet
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Washington has a problem. It has thought that investing in a strong central government in Baghdad would reduce Iran’s role. That has not happened yet – instead US investment may have inadvertently benefited Iran. The US is also concerned about showing too much support for the Kurdish region, thinking that it has to balance Baghdad and Erbil in the Kurdish region, as opposed to simply embracing its allies in northern Iraq. – Jerusalem Post Tom Rogan writes: Why is ISIS willing to sacrifice its fighters for a video? Simple: Priceless propaganda. […]ISIS is no longer focused on the holding of territory but on the expanded holding of minds. With time, ISIS believes its physical caliphate will rise again. But it also knows that such an outcome requires human servants. Hence, the priority of propaganda. Expect more videos such as this one, and others, in the vein of the 2014-2015 video executions. – Washington Examiner
Simon Henderson writes: On December 27, Saudi Arabia announced new appointments in the name of King Salman that substantially alter the makeup of the Political and Security Affairs Council[…]. In terms of foreign policy, the changes do not suggest any immediate shift in Riyadh’s views on Iran, the Yemen war, or the ongoing diplomatic spat with Qatar. The kingdom is certainly concerned about President Trump’s recent decision to pull U.S. forces out of Syria, but the new appointments were likely being prepared before that change in American policy. – Washington Institute India’s options and the Pashtun factor (The Hindu) In fashioning its Afghan policy, India has to take into account a resurgent Taliban India has formally taken over operations at Iran’s strategic Chabahar Port, a move that could have significant geopolitical ramifications in the region. The port on the Indian Ocean, inaugurated last year, is being built largely by India and is expected to provide a key supply route for Afghanistan while allowing India to bypass rival Pakistan to trade with Central Asia. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
It’s practically an axiom of Israeli politics that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is invincible because he doesn’t have any serious challengers. But what if the fragmented center-left opposition joined forces? Talk of a united front against Netanyahu percolated this week as polls showed him handily winning a fifth term in early elections, his popularity undented by a string of corruption allegations that threaten to land him in court. The Knesset formally voted Wednesday night to dissolve itself and hold elections April 9. – Bloomberg For Benjamin Netanyahu, 2019 could be the year he surpasses founding father David Ben-Gurion as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. It could also be the year he’s forced to step down to fight the legal battle of his life. The Israeli parliament’s decision to trigger early elections April 9 means that Netanyahu will be running for re-election even as the attorney general mulls whether to indict the prime minister in a sprawling corruption investigation. – Bloomberg
Luke Coffey, James Jay Carafano, Thomas Spoehr, and Walter Lohman write: There is a huge space between victory and defeat and that is where the U.S. is today in Afghanistan and that is where the U.S. is likely to remain for the foreseeable future. Until there is a genuine peace settlement between all Afghans, and until Pakistan stops providing succor to the Taliban, we should accept that this is as good as it is going to get. This is not defeat. This is reality.- Heritage Foundation At a time when the conventional Afghan military and police forces are being killed in record numbers across the country, the regional forces overseen by the C.I.A. have managed to hold the line against the most brutal militant groups[…]. But the units have also operated unconstrained by battlefield rules designed to protect civilians, conducting night raids, torture and killings with near impunity, in a covert campaign that some Afghan and American officials say is undermining the wider American effort to strengthen Afghan institutions. – New York Times The Truth About the Soviet War in Afghanistan
// Gregory Feifer Trump mischaracterized it in an attempt to justify his own disastrous policy in the region.
How Trump Can Right Foreign Policy
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | December 26, 2018 https://www.nysun.com/foreign/how-trump-can-right-foreign-policy/90513/
US said to set up new bases near Iraq-Syria border
The United States has established two new military bases in Iraq's western Anbar province near the Syrian border, an Iraqi official said Tuesday. “The US Army has established two new military facilities in uninhabited parts of the province,” Farhan al-Duleimi, a member of Anbar's provisional council, told Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency. One base is in the northern Rumana subdistrict, while the other was set up east of the city of al-Rutbah, roughly 200 miles west of Ramadi and less than 60 miles from the Syrian border. “Scores of US soldiers are currently stationed at the two bases, along with drones and other equipment,” Duleimi said. The Iraqi government and the US military have not confirmed Duleimi's assertions. Read More Turkey Turns on America by Uzay Bulut • Biased World? Turks Operating in Syria Judged Differently Than Israel by Seth Frantzman The Jerusalem Post December 23, 2018 https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/biased-world-turks-operating-in-syria-judged-diff Tectonic Shifts in Attitudes toward Israelby Daniel Pipes Washington Times December 27, 2018 http://www.danielpipes.org/18644/tectonic-shifts-in-attitudes-toward-israel Will US exit from Syria change terrain of Turkey's road map?
President Donald Trump's abrupt announcement that he will pull US troops out of Syria has Turkey reassessing the situation. INDIA: India's Land Warfare Doctrine 2018 By Joy Mitra, The Diplomat: “A 2018 iteration of India's Land Warfare Doctrine merits a close look.” Indian Army announces new land warfare doctrine (IHS Jane’s 360) The Indian Army (IA) is seeking to create integrated battle groups (IBGs), expand its cyber warfare capabilities, and induct energy-directed weapons as well as artificial intelligence-based systems to manage multiple security challenges, the service announced in its Land Warfare Doctrine-2018. AFGHANISTAN: Pakistan Acknowledges Indian Role in Afghanistan By Samuel Ramani, The Diplomat: “On December 11, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi surprised international observers by acknowledging India’s stake in Afghanistan and asking New Delhi to help end the war in Afghanistan. So the President Wants Out of Afghanistan: What Happens Next?
By Jonathan Schroden, War on the Rocks: “Earlier this week, I took a look back at a congressionally mandated assessment of the war in Afghanistan that I led nearly five years ago. Yesterday, reports emerged that President Donald Trump has directed the Pentagon to develop plans to withdraw 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, potentially as early as this spring. Given this news, it is worth revisiting a part of our assessment that I did not discuss previously: our consideration of two withdrawal scenarios.”
Robert D. Kaplan writes: Do we owe it to the Afghan people to stay? Not if the ideals that we claim to represent appear unachievable. Spending billions and stationing thousands of troops there with no end in sight to stem a deepening chaos is simply not sustainable policy. Even a small fraction of that money could be better spent on smarter infrastructure investments in Asia, such as liquid natural gas terminals and dual-use ports in Vietnam to compete with China’s maritime Belt and Road Initiative. – New York Times
How insecurity in Iran's southeast could benefit UAE, Pakistan
Regional rivalry over maritime trade has intensified speculations in Iran about possible Emirati-Pakistani involvement in the recent terror attack in the southeastern port of Chabahar.
It was time to leave Syria anyway
(Defense One) ISIS is a spent force militarily, and whatever mandate the United States might have had in Syria has run its course. We are not there to take the nation into our custody to rebuild it, or to confront Iran, Russia, and Assad.
Analysis: The costs of withdrawal from Afghanistan
President Trump's decision to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan will have consequences. The Taliban and al Qaeda will declare victory, while the US will find it harder to hunt terrorists throughout the region.
To Succeed in Syria, Don't Withdraw — Rebrand
// Hassan Hassan The president's plan is a disaster. If he wants to claim victory, there's a better way.
U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
Pentagon Planning to Withdraw Up to 7,000 Troops From Afghanistan By Lolita C. Baldor, AP: “The Pentagon is developing plans to withdraw up to half of the 14,000 American troops serving in Afghanistan, U.S. officials said Thursday, marking a sharp change in the Trump administration’s policy aimed at forcing the Taliban to the peace table after more than 17 years of war.”
The Islamic State is not defeated in Syria. Or anywhere else. Look at Africa.
Emily Estelle | AEIdeas
Trump made the right decision to quit Syrian conflict
BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR Despite the criticism, there is a strong argument that the US president has done the right thing by withdrawing his forces from Syria
Trump’s Syria pullout shakes up US Mideast policy
The US president’s snap decision to withdraw 2,200 US troops from Syria will have an impact across the region.
BENNY AVNI: NY POST
The Syria withdrawl may be Trump’s biggest blunder to date In what will likely mark the worst foreign-policy decision of his presidency to date, President Trump on Wednesday announced that he is ceding Syria to the jackals. “We have defeated…
Barack Hussein Trump and the failure of leadership on Syria
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas Far from “ending” any war a la Obama, Trump, like his predecessor, has ensured a continued threat to US interests and a victory for Tehran and terrorists. As the president himself might say, this is weak.
Fixing Afghanistan’s flawed peace process
NEMATULLAH BIZHAN In February, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani offered the Taliban unconditional talks to negotiate a political settlement. To support the process, the United States also initiated direct talks with the Taliban, which the Taliban had been demanding. The Taliban have since responded by intensifying their campaign of violence, killing hundreds of civilians, including 10 candidates in the recent parliamentary election and their supporters. The Taliban have also refused to talk to the Afghan government. Many Afghans want... THE GREAT MAN OF HISTORY THEORY FALTERS IN IRAQ & long war journal on resurgence of isis in syria12/18/2018 Ahmad Chalabi and the Great Man Theory of History by Richard Hanania Analysis: The Islamic State hasn’t been defeated
President Trump claimed earlier today that the Islamic State has been "defeated" in Syria. But an unknown number of the group's top leaders, including presumably Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, remain alive. And there are likely thousands of fighters in both Syria and Iraq, where they operate as insurgents. 'Red Vests' flood Tunisian streets on 8th anniversary of revolution Tunisia's answer to France's Yellow Vest protests, Les Gilets Rouges, is advocating for poor and marginalized Tunisians with economic and social demands. Tunisian activists ready to walk the walk
A group of young Tunisian civil society activists established the Red Vest campaign in protest against the worsening economic and social situation in Tunisia. Marc A. Thiessen writes: Today, when it comes to Saudi Arabia, Trump is — like Bush — in an impossible position. The United States must stand for human rights. But it must also preserve its relationship with Saudi Arabia, the only nation in the Middle East that can serve as a bulwark against Iran, the main strategic threat to U.S. interests in the region. – Washington Post
Michael Singh writes: To maintain a strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia, there are several steps the United States can take to make its diplomacy with Riyadh more effective and make clear that U.S. support is not unconditional. At the same time, the Khashoggi episode should serve as a wake-up call for American policymakers looking to work increasingly through allies in the Middle East as the United States shifts its attention elsewhere. U.S. policy toward other partners in the region must also be reset if these partnerships are to remain effective. – War on the Rocks David Pollock writes: In the wake of the Khashoggi scandal, a rare new public opinion poll in Saudi Arabia shows wide popular concern about corruption and a number of other internal problems. At the same time, the survey data demonstrates only minority support for the official initiative of Islamic reform. Ironically, then, this prime locus of support on the part of outside powers for Saudi policy shifts is also precisely the area of greatest internal debate. – Washington Institute Zev Chafets writes: The prospect of a snap Israeli general election has faded for the moment, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition surviving the sudden departure of a key ally. […]Many of Netanyahu’s critics see this as golden opportunity to bring him down. But I think they are too optimistic. For one thing, the prime minister is popular, more so than any of his key rivals. For another, it is not certain that he will be indicted before the election. And finally, even if he is, that may not stop him from running — and winning. – Bloomberg
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