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WHY THE ARABS ARE RE-WELCOMING ASSAD; AND WHY RUSSIA'S ECONOMY IS LESS DEPENDENT ON US SANCTIONS12/7/2018
Why Russian Domestic Politics Make U.S. Sanctions Less Effective by Thomas Wonder
The Road to Damascus: The Arabs March Back to Befriend Assad by Kamal Alam and David Lesch
A Game as Old as Empire: The Return of Proxy Wars in Afghanistan
By Tamim Asey, Small Wars Journal: “History is repeating itself in Afghanistan. Proxy wars and great power politics is returning to the country."
A Path Forward in Afghanistan
By Bharath Gopalaswamy, Atlantic Council: “One year on, there appears to be little to show for U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s strategy for Afghanistan.”
Five Years Ago, We Assessed the War in Afghanistan for Congress: How Did We Do?
by Jonathan Schroden A wave of economic austerity is squeezing the Arab world’s middle class, pushing a segment of society that is key to growth and stability into making painful cutbacks and fueling discontent. […]The protests have stirred memories of the Arab Spring revolts, which toppled a number of governments and united the poor and middle class over shared complaints. – Wall Street Journal Jonathan Spyer writes: The Sunni Arab populations of Syria and Iraq have been the main losers of the region’s decade of disarray. Islamic State looks to harness the fury of many of the young men of these communities to the banner of its brand of political Islam. Something familiar is stirring in the dusty and remote corners of central Iraq. The West should pay attention. – Wall Street Journal
Smadar Perry writes: We must recall that Hezbollah has huge quantities of missiles, some of which can reach almost the entire territory of the State of Israel. And yet Hezbollah does not use them. And another fact: Israel knows exactly where Nasrallah is hiding, at what address, on what floor, and yet did not even try to kill him once. To some extent he is protected, unless he commits a terrible folly. – Ynet Why is Israel forging secret ties with Sudan?
Hamas condemns the current normalization of ties between several Arab countries and Israel, at a time the Israeli media is talking about efforts to stop arms reaching the Gaza Strip through Libya and Sudan. Danny Makki writes: Against all odds, the Syrian government has managed to hold on and win the country’s seven-year civil war. As the focus now shifts from fighting to recovery, the transition to governance in a post-conflict environment is creating new and unexpected challenges. Areas of Syria previously loyal to the government are becoming increasingly vocal about these challenges, especially on social media. – Middle East Institute Samuel Oakford writes: While many in the Trump administration want to avoid replicating what they see as the United States’ experience in Iraq, where a perceived early withdrawal ceded space to an extremist insurgency, the White House has offered another reason for keeping troops on the ground: Iran. Tehran has helped provide significant battlefield support to Assad’s forces, which, along with Russian help, has served to turn the tide of the conflict, and the White House’s overriding rationale for staying in Syria has shifted focus to Iran. – The Atlantic
Egypt’s political life still struggles under Sisi Egypt’s political parties are witnessing internal divisions that further deteriorate poor political partisan activity. Mohamed Maher writes: The United States could lose the benefits of its long-term investment in Egypt due to the continuing rapprochement between Cairo and Moscow, which seems to have hit a new peak after four years in development. Evidence from the past year indicates that this trend towards cooperation between the two states is significantly more than just a fleeting trend or an attempt by the Egyptians to improve their negotiating position with the United States. – Washington Institute During a show on Channel 1 TV (Iran), the IRGC’s Aerospace Force commander General Amir Ali Hajizadeh reviewed maps of different U.S. airbases in the region, including Al-Udeid in Qatar, Al-Dhafra in the UAE, and Kandahar in Afghanistan, saying that they are all within Iranian missile range. He also said that American aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman are within range, and that the U.S. military presence that used to be a threat to Iran is now an opportunity. – Middle East Media Research Institute
THE LEGACY OF IRAQI ISLAM UNDER DICTATORSHIP & THE IMPACT OF THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION ON ISLAM12/4/2018 The Legacy Of Saddam's Islam by Samuel Helfont via The Caravan Anyone examining Islam in Saddam’s Iraq (1979-2003) and the legacy of that period today is quickly confronted with a tangled web of problematic definitions and eclectic ideologies. Untangling this web is essential for identifying what really drives Iraqi politics, and doing so provides one with some hope that sectarian differences can still be overcome. Paradoxically, it also does not augur well for the chances for stability in the country anytime soon. Contradictions Of The Faith by Sanam Vakil via The Caravan On February 11, 2019 Iran will celebrate the fortieth anniversary of the Iranian revolution and the creation of Iran’s Islamic government guided by a clerical leader known as the vali-e-faqih. This anniversary is important for numerous reasons including that the Islamic Republic, having survived many political storms, has outlasted the expectations of many. Under renewed political and economic pressure from US sanctions and Washington’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran nuclear agreement, this anniversary has added symbolism for Tehran. Book review: ‘The Future of Iran’s Past: Nizam al-Mulk Remembered’
Michael Rubin | Middle East Quarterly Book review: ‘Crisis, Collapse, Militarism and Civil War: The History and Historiography of 18th Century Iran’ Michael Rubin | Middle East Quarterly IMRAN KHAN'S FIRST 100 DAYS: DISMAL; PAYMENT CRISIS COMING FAST & CPEC UNDER ETHNIC DURESS12/4/2018 PTI govt unable to devise a way out of Pakistan’s financial turmoil IMAD ZAFAR Pakistan is going through financial turmoil. The Karachi Stock Exchange on Monday lost 1,200 points in early trade after the State Bank of Pakistan predicted a slow economic growth rate of 4% for the financial year 2019 and amid rumors of Prime Minister Imran Khan telling journalists that midterm elections could not be ruled out. On Friday, the Pakistani currency saw its worst decline of the decade when it plunged 10 rupees against the US dollar... Khan govt hits Islamist group with sedition, terrorism charges
BY F.M. SHAKIL Khadim Hussain Rizvi and other leaders among thousands rounded up after TLP leaders made fiery speeches during wild protests last month over Aasia Bibi acquittal and fears of another destabilizing rally
Israel targets Hezbollah tunnels on Lebanon border
The Israeli army this morning started Operation Northern Shield to expose and destroy tunnels dug by Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border. Israel estimates that exposing all the tunnels could take several weeks, and even longer if Hezbollah interferes. “The digging of tunnels constitutes a blatant violation of Israeli sovereignty,” said army spokesman Ronen Manelis. Read More Pushing for an Israeli Victory Is the Only Way to End the Conflict with the Palestinians
by Daniel Pipes Ha'aretz December 2, 2018 http://www.danielpipes.org/18599/pushing-for-an-israeli-victory-is-the-only-way-to Standing With Saudi Arabia TONY BADRAN How President Donald Trump has been forthright about the actual drivers of American policy in the Middle East Saudi crown prince visits Algeria Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman landed in Algeria on Sunday for a two-day official visit focused on investment and trade between the two countries. Before arriving in Algiers, the crown prince made a stop in Mauritania earlier on Sunday, where he met with President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. The two officials discussed bilateral relations and ways to boost development in the region. Prince Mohammed resumed his regional tour after attending the G-20 summit in Argentina. This is the prince’s first trip abroad in the aftermath of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and also included stops in Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Tunisia, where he was greeted by protesters. On the sidelines of the G-20 summit, Mohammed met on Saturday with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Read More Saudi Arabia strikes deals with Algeria during crown prince visit Saudi Arabia and Algeria signed on Monday five joint projects in various fields during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the country as part of his first tour abroad since the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Prince Mohammed met with Algerian Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia for talks focused largely on bilateral trade and investment. The two later announced the establishment of a Supreme Council for Saudi-Algerian Coordination that will focus on political ties and counter-terrorism cooperation. Meanwhile, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika called off a meeting with the Saudi prince due to health reasons. Read More Jordan hosts Libyan rivals
Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya's UN-backed government met on Sundaywith Jordan’s King Abdullah II during a visit to the kingdom. The king is expected to host a reconciliation meeting between Sarraj and military strongman Khalifa Hifter, who leads the armed forces for the rival Tobruk-based eastern government. Hifter reportedly arrived in Jordan last week. Meanwhile in Tripoli, protesters stormed government headquarters in Tripoli. The protesters are demanding their unpaid salaries as well as medical treatment for injuries sustained during clashes in Tripoli in August and in earlier confrontations. Read More David Albright, Olli Heinonen, Frank Fabian, and Andrea Stricker write: Israel learned that Iran had disposed of radioactively contaminated material stored at this site in the metropolitan area of Tehran. If true, by releasing the radioactive material, albeit likely low-level radioactive material, into the public domain, rather than disposing of it in an official nuclear waste site, Iran likely disregarded its own national nuclear waste disposal practices. Iran has a regulated nuclear waste disposal site in the vicinity of Tehran, [...]. - Institute for Science and International Security
WHY THE US IS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Jerusalem wants to see the US engaged, influential and active in the region. It doesn’t want to see it disengaged and concerned only about its own domestic problems. Read more... A New Phase in Israel-Gulf Relations by Seth Frantzman The Jerusalem Post November 26, 2018 https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/a-new-phase-in-israel-gulf-relations Will Netanyahu’s coalition collapse? Facing the danger of a negative vote, the narrow coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was forced to withdraw two bills that were set to be approved this week. Cease-fire agreement sends tremors through Israeli Knesset
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cease-fire agreement with Gaza led Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman to submit his resignation, it also led the opposition to call for early elections. The death of a senior leader will temporarily disrupt an al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) affiliate in central Mali. French forces killed Amadou Koufa, a deputy leader of Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen, on November 23. Koufa helped expand AQIM’s reach into central Mali and northern Burkina Faso by appealing to local ethnic grievances and mentoring other militant leaders. Salafi-jihadi groups will continue to expand in central Mali despite Koufa’s death as long as government repression and local conflict continue.
Taliban calls Afghan government “impotent,” says negotiating with it is “a waste of time” The Taliban yet again belittled the Afghan government as a "powerless and foreign imposed" regime that is unworthy of sitting down at a negotiating table. Additionally, the Taliban noted that it is "fighting and negotiating with the American invaders for the success of Jihad. Afghan government’s negotiating position completely at odds with Taliban’s President Ghani wants the Taliban to accept democracy, participate in the government, and break ties with terrorist groups. The Taliban has repeatedly refused to adhere to these demands. Additionally, Ghani called for negotiations that are first driven by Afghans, which is the opposite of what is actually occurring today. A Pivotal Year Ahead for Afghanistan By Omar Samad, Atlantic Council: “Even as another turbulent year draws to a close in Afghanistan, 2019 could end up becoming a pivotal one for a nation caught between geopolitical power projections, evolving peace and political pressures, and contrasting visions for the future—unless there is a concerted effort to agree on an inclusive, practical, and timebound political process that includes a peace plan." Nawaz must lead charge against the establishment IMAD ZAFAR Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's PTI-led government has completed its first 100 days in power. Despite the hype, Khan and his team generated with their promise to bring visible changes to the economic and governance front in the first 100 days, they have failed to deliver. In spite of the lackluster performance and a visionless approach by the government led by Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, it actually does not face any threat from the weak opposition....
Taliban Unmasked: Afghan Taliban’s Continued Symbiotic Relationship with al Qaeda and International Terrorism By Tamim Asey, Small Wars Journal: “The question is, have they really changed and cut ties with Al Qaeda and its allies? Are they different after almost two decades of fighting? Has the Taliban movement been fundamentally transformed, or they have just become ‘good politicians’, i.e. pretenders, sugarcoating themselves into a new role only to change later once they once again assume power?" But in a goodwill gesture on Wednesday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan broke ground on a corridor allowing Indian Sikhs visa-free access to the gurdwara. It will be part of a broader complex known as the Kartarpur Crossing. – NPR Sadanand Dhume writes: For many Indian citizens, Pakistan’s failure to deliver even a modicum of justice for Mumbai’s victims proves that Islamabad has neither the intention nor the will to act against Islamist terrorist groups, which the army uses to destabilize India and Afghanistan. – Wall Street Journal Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Wednesday his government and the military want to mend ties with arch-foe India, in the latest bid to improve relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours. – Reuters
Since the country declared independence in 1947, Pakistan has come into conflict with its neighbor India on a number of occasions. The nation has one of the strongest military forces in the world and plays a key role in South Asian affairs. So how strong is Pakistan’s military? – Newsweek
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia visits Mauritania and Algeria after attending the G20 Summit in Argentina. The Algerian Workers’ Party has warned of protests against the crown prince similar to those that greeted him in Tunisia.
Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak faces off with his deposed successor Mohammed Morsi for the first time in a Cairo courtroom. Morsi and 28 others are being retried on charges stemming from a massive jailbreak during the 2011 revolution. |
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